Another Campaign Enters the Gutter

A few weeks ago John McCain and Barack Obama were promising to engage on the issues and avoid nasty personal attacks. What's more, for the most part that's just what they were doing, too. But now we find the discourse following the downward spiral of so many modern campaigns. Why is it back to the gutter?

Well, it's because McCain really has nothing else to talk about. He needed to change the subject because, as the Gallup Poll showed, none of the issues were breaking to his advantage. For McCain to win, the campaign had to be about something besides the issues. Thus the decision to go negative and get personal.

Back in June, Gallup asked Americans, "If you had to choose, who do you think would do a better job on (a list of eight issues, asked one at a time), Barack Obama or John McCain?" The names of the candidates were rotated for each question. People were also asked to tell how important each issue would be in determining their vote.

The top issue was "Energy, including gas prices." People trusted Obama 47%-28%. Number two was "The Economy." Obama was preferred 48-32. Number three was "Iraq." The people's choice was split on Iraq, 43-43. Number four was "Healthcare," where Obama led 51-26. Number five was "Terrorism," McCain's only significant lead at 52-33. Sixth came "Taxes," and Obama was more trusted by 44-35. Seventh was "Moral values." Obama led 40-39. Eighth was "Illegal immigration," on which McCain had the edge by 36-34.

As you can see, terrorism was the only issue on which Americans trusted McCain enough more than Obama to give him any real advantage. And there has really been very little newsworthy mention of terrorism lately, explaining why it was ranked only fifth in importance to people. McCain tried to make some headway on Iraq, but then Obama went abroad. McCain argued he had been right about the surge. Obama said he had been right about not invading in the first place. The backward-facing nature of the argument failed to address what the American people needed to know, namely, what we should do from this point forward. Then Prime Minister al-Maliki of Iraq and President Bush took the wind out of McCain's sails by talking about "timelines" and "time horizons" for ending the U.S. involvement, in effect endorsing Obama's position and rendering McCain's moot. That was what the American people wanted to hear anyway. A majority agree the surge has improved the situation but a much bigger majority feels it is time to withdraw.

The only other issues that were close were Immigration and Moral Values, and on these McCain's record is not a particularly pleasing one to the Republican base. To emphasize them might cause him as much harm as good.

That left as McCain's last card his vast advantage in experience over Obama. But of course to emphasize that is also to contrast the youthful and vibrant Obama with the aging McCain. That approach formed the basis of Hillary Clinton's "Ready On Day One" campaign against Obama and didn't work out too well for her. So the question became how to take advantage of McCain's experience without drawing attention to his age. The only remaining way was by creating fear about Obama in comparison.

The Republican "brand" has been seriously discredited in the voter's minds, the voters prefer Obama's positions, and McCain is constrained from taking advantage of the experience gap because he happens to be nearing 72 years of age. The only remaining likely path is to rip Obama and try to bring him down to size. McCain had a decision to make, and he made the logical choice that gives him the best chance at victory. In the process he had to overcome any qualms he may have had about abandoning his earlier promise on how he would conduct the campaign. It was simply more important to him to have a chance to be President than to keep his word. And that's why we're back in the gutter.