Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Can Trump's Economic Standing Save Him?

A friend sent me a recent New York Times article by Jim Tankersley on Trump's standing on the economy. The bottom line is that Trump is overall still rated better on the economy than Biden. I've been watching that too. It's the only issue running in Trump's favor, but it could be the most important issue. So if he's able to prevail, other than his efforts to cheat and manipulate the voting itself, that's what will have saved him.

The upshot of the article, when you read the details, is that Republicans still think Trump's great on the economy. That's not exactly a shocker. And Democrats think he's horrible. That's also predicable. Beyond that, here's a key passage from the article:

"But the plunge in economic activity since the coronavirus began to spread rapidly in the United States late this past winter has hurt Mr. Trump's standing on economic issues as well as his overall approval. Most polls now find Americans are evenly split on whether they approve of his handling of the issue. Gallup, for example, found Mr. Trump enjoyed a 48 percent approval rating on the economy this month, down from 63 percent in January. The decline was particularly acute among moderates, independents and voters who attended at least some college."

Here's link to the full Gallup Poll quoted above. 

So this is the guy who won the three Great Lakes battlegrounds by a combined 78,000 votes in 2016. That's much less than a 1% victory in all three, and he squeaked by in the biggest battleground, Florida, by 1%. Now his standing on the economy has tanked 15%. The decline was "particularly acute" among "moderates and independents," precisely the swing voters. So if, as the article says, almost all Republicans still think he walks on water, and almost all Democrats still think he is Lucifer in the flesh, and their views have scarcely changed from when his economic approval was at 63%, then how much has his economic standing among the third of voters who are moderate and independent declined in order to pull the whole average down by 15 points? Well, the simple arithmetic would put that at around 45%. That's enormous. And again, those are precisely the persuadable people, the "moderates and independents" who are the SWING VOTERS everyone is always talking about. 

Trump could still win. The economy is a potential lifeline, as long as his numbers there aren't as terrible as his numbers on everything else. He could also make headway on patriotism, as he defines it, and on fear of demonstrators, as he's trying to do with his "law and order" pitch. But he needs those numbers to get a lot better. The last four national polls that came in last week gave Biden an average 8.5% national lead. In 2016 Trump was able to eke out an electoral win BARELY, with a 2.1% national deficit. As of right now he's losing, and he'll need those economic numbers to improve substantially to reverse that. It may be possible, but they're not there yet. I'm sure he realizes where he stands and will be working hard to try to get there. 

Saturday, August 15, 2020

What's Behind Trump's Frantic Efforts to Cheat?

Donald Trump is currently defunding and interfering with the operations of the US Postal Service and is spreading disinformation about the security and efficacy of voting by mail. I am convinced that a big part of Trump's desperation and frantic attempts to cheat come from his realization that once he is out of office his criminal immunity will end and his lap dog Attorney General William Barr won't be there to use the resources of the US government to shield Individual Number One. Joe Biden has already said "no way" when asked if he'd grant Trump a pardon. Trump's tax frauds, obstructions of justice, campaign finance violations, briberies and extortions will all be fair game and the agents he has impugned in the Southern District of New York and the FBI will be more than motivated to take him down. His complicit minions will sing like canaries to save themselves without him in office to grant them pardons and commutations.