Obama Masters Foreign Policy

The recent successful end of the rebellion in Libya marks another milestone in President Barack Obama's conduct of foreign policy.  This latest in a remarkable string of successes is all the more striking given the president's lack of international or defense credentials when he ran for office.  It says a lot about his basic outlook, validating a measured and principled approach to the world in contrast to the wasteful, unprincipled and ultimately counterproductive methodology of his predecessor in office. While Obama has certainly shown no aversion to the use of force when he considers it necessary, he has consistently shown an astute capacity to tailor the scale of the action to the need at hand.

On his third day in office, Obama fulfilled campaign promises by signing executive orders ending torture and closing secret CIA prisons.  These actions were met with relief around the world. Juxtaposed with this was his order three months later to kill Somali pirates holding American merchant sea captain Richard Phillips hostage.  The lesson seemed to be that the U.S. could and would stand firm against criminal thuggery and extortion while upholding its traditional principles--that it was not an either/or proposition as the Bush-Cheney administration had contended.  Why not both?

President Obama followed this up with the first visionary appeal by an American president to the people of the Middle East on their own soil with his landmark Cairo Speech of June 4, 2009.  In it he spoke out against the allure of violence by stating, "So long as our relationship is defined by our differences, we will empower those who sow hatred rather than peace, and who promote conflict rather than cooperation that can help all of our people achieve justice and prosperity."  And in a passage that now sounds prophetic, he continued,

"But I do have an unyielding belief that all people yearn for certain things: the ability to speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed; confidence in the rule of law and the equal administration of justice; government that is transparent and doesn't steal from the people; the freedom to live as you choose.  Those are not just American ideas, they are human rights, and that is why we will support them everywhere.  Suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away...and we will welcome all elected, peaceful governments--provided they govern with respect for their people."

That these words were delivered in the Egypt of the corrupt and oppressive dictator Hosni Mubarak is not inconsequential.  To what extent these appeals contributed to later events may be revealed in  historical studies to come, but it cannot be denied that the American outreach Obama initiated in his early months culminated in the October 9, 2009 announcement that the new president had been awarded the Nobel Prize for Peace.  In the words of the Nobel Committee, "for his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy, and cooperation between peoples...Obama has as president created a new climate in international politics."

This climate was revealed in the Arab Spring of 2011, when the citizens of Tunisia and Egypt successfully agitated for freedom and democracy and ousted their authoritarian rulers.  Uprisings also took place in Libya, Syria and Bahrain.  Obama's adroit handling of the situation in Libya, focused on air support and enlisting the contributions of allies, ultimately resulted in the overthrow of the odious regime of Moammar Ghaddafi without a single American casualty at a cost of about $1.5 billion: a clear delineation from how the Bush Administration went about regime change in Iraq.  There, U.S. boots on the ground resulted in American losses of 4,481 dead and 32,195 wounded at a financial price tag of $757.8 billion in direct costs and possibly $1.9 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office, including indirect costs.

Speaking of the inherited wars, Obama personally made the bold decision that killed Osama bin Laden in May despite potential diplomatic fallout with Pakistan, and also recently eliminated English-language Al-Qaeda recruiter Anwar al Awlaki in Yemen.  His stepped-up use of drone attacks has decimated the terror group's leadership in Pakistan.  Meanwhile, all American forces are scheduled to be out of Iraq by the end of this year and Afghanistan by 2014. The Obama scalpel has proven to be a far more effective and economical strategy than the Bush-Cheney bludgeon.  While they excelled at braggadocio and posturing, Obama quietly shows good judgment and gets results.  The contrast could not be more refreshing nor more helpful to America's image and interests. 

Egyptians Oust Mubarak

Today Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak stepped down after nearly 30 years in power. This marks a watershed in Middle Eastern history, for the movement that got rid of him was both broad based among the people and nonviolent.

I have said for some time that what the Arab world needs is a Gandhi, someone who could show them the way forward without extremism and bloodshed. It appears they have gone that one better, adopting methods of peaceful civil disobedience pioneered by the Indian Mahatma and used so effectively in the United States by Martin Luther King, Jr. without the presence of a single galvanizing leader. Instead, their organizing prowess seems to have come via a plethora of activists by electronic communications, web social networking and plain old word of mouth.

Remarkably, the only significant violence in the entire eighteen-day protest fest came from regime thugs beating many and killing a few in their futile attempt to intimidate peaceful demonstrators. Of great importance, the Egyptian Army stood as a bulwark against official repression and moved into position to protect the people. Now that it has been entrusted with control of a transition government, all eyes will be upon the generals to see what happens next. It cannot be forgotten that Egypt has been ruled successively by generals since 1956 under Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak.

Hopefully, their performance of the past weeks will serve as prologue for what happens next. The joyous throngs celebrating throughout Egypt are full of optimism, at least for the moment. Perhaps the people will have their way and a democratic wave will spread across the Middle East. If we're going to dream, why not dream big?

Egypt

As democracy protests in Egypt enter their seventh day it is becoming increasingly clear that the end of this denouement will come with the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak. The police are no longer opposing the demonstrations and the army announced today it will not fire on its own citizens. When an authoritarian government can no longer count on its minions to enforce its authority the end cannot be far behind. See photos here.

The handwriting appeared clearly on the wall yesterday when Secretary of State Clinton and Press Secretary Gibbs started using the word "transition" when referring to events in Egypt. That is as in "transition to a democratic form of government." The terminology is not accidental; it indicates both an intelligence assessment of what is in the process of taking place as well as a signal to Mubarak to expect no propping up from Washington.

Analysis in the American press is now starting to focus on what this might mean for the United States. Will Mubarak's fall make Egypt a haven for terrorists? Will the state of peace between Egypt and Israel that has prevailed for better than 30 years be maintained? Will the change produce instability that raises oil prices? On one level, these concerns are natural. But there are good reasons for optimism about Egypt's future stance. Unlike many other Middle East countries, Egypt is not an unstable tribal amalgam patched together by colonial powers. It is a cohesive nation with a 5,000 year history of which its people are justly proud. It has good reason to keep the peace with Israel. It is not a major oil producer. Its Muslim Brotherhood is a relatively moderate organization.

But more deeply and in any event, the people of the United States and their government can scarcely oppose or stand in the way of any people's legitimate striving for freedom and a say in the selection of their own destiny. That is what America stands for and has espoused for its entire existence. For three decades the people of Egypt have put up with a dictatorial police state and sham democracy. Tunisia's recent successful revolution was the first domino; Egypt will be the second. No doubt rulers from Damascus to Riyadh and from Tripoli to Tehran are wondering whether and when their turn is next. And unless we are hypocrites we can and should do nothing other than applaud.