In a typically thorough and brilliant analysis, Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com election prediction operation finds the gap between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump narrowing. Read his latest ten-point analysis here. Silver has predicted the last two presidential elections with remarkable accuracy. His projections currently give Clinton about a two-to-one 67% to 33% likelihood of winning the election.
I said I'd be concerned and comment if Trump's chances got above 30 and so they have. I am concerned. Clinton's still in the driver's seat in popular vote and electorally, but the slide had better stop. What's happening? She's been off the campaign trail most of August, raising a massive haul of money ($140 million). She needs to and is now back campaigning. That money needs to buy a flood of effective adds, positive and negative, and fund a great organizational registration and get out the vote, (GOTV) effort, especially in the battleground states. This is where Clinton would have a big edge in states that are very close. She has dozens of offices in Florida and Ohio, for example, while Trump has only a small handful. But she's also hurt by the incessant drip about emails, eroding credibility among the persuadable. Clinton must break through the sleaze reporting with her positive growth plans and needs to (and should) turn in her normally impressive debate performances which should highlight how much more she knows, is better prepared, and is personally suited for the presidency than Trump.
The odds are about right. She is ahead and ought to win. But there is enough of a chance for Trump that it's not a certainty. That's cause to keep taking action. I just made my fifth contribution to the campaign since she announced. The Young Democrats college club I sponsor voted today to join the Registration and GOTV effort and commit to signing up 200 voters and then walking precincts the last two weeks up to Nov 8. We're still ahead and have the inside track with a more plausible route to the winning total of 270 electoral votes. But it's no time to rest easy at all.
I said I'd be concerned and comment if Trump's chances got above 30 and so they have. I am concerned. Clinton's still in the driver's seat in popular vote and electorally, but the slide had better stop. What's happening? She's been off the campaign trail most of August, raising a massive haul of money ($140 million). She needs to and is now back campaigning. That money needs to buy a flood of effective adds, positive and negative, and fund a great organizational registration and get out the vote, (GOTV) effort, especially in the battleground states. This is where Clinton would have a big edge in states that are very close. She has dozens of offices in Florida and Ohio, for example, while Trump has only a small handful. But she's also hurt by the incessant drip about emails, eroding credibility among the persuadable. Clinton must break through the sleaze reporting with her positive growth plans and needs to (and should) turn in her normally impressive debate performances which should highlight how much more she knows, is better prepared, and is personally suited for the presidency than Trump.
The odds are about right. She is ahead and ought to win. But there is enough of a chance for Trump that it's not a certainty. That's cause to keep taking action. I just made my fifth contribution to the campaign since she announced. The Young Democrats college club I sponsor voted today to join the Registration and GOTV effort and commit to signing up 200 voters and then walking precincts the last two weeks up to Nov 8. We're still ahead and have the inside track with a more plausible route to the winning total of 270 electoral votes. But it's no time to rest easy at all.
