Swing States Swing Back to Democrats

First, the Great Lakes big three:

PA: Dems flipped the governorship, gained 4 House seats, and won the Senate contest!

MI: Dems flipped the governorship, gained two House seats, and won the Senate contest!

WI: Dems flipped the governorship, gained no House seats, and won the Senate contest!

The biggest swing state:

FL: Reps appear to have kept the governorship by .41%, Dems gained 3 House seats, Reps appear to have flipped the Senate contest by .15 of a percent.

The second biggest swing state:

OH: Reps kept the governorship, the heavily gerrymandered House seats remained unchanged, Dems won the Senate contest.

Smaller swing states:

NH: Reps kept the governorship, Dems kept both House seats, no Senate race.

NV: Reps kept the governorship, House stayed the same, Dems flipped a Senate seat.

IO: Reps kept the governorship, Dems flipped 2 House seats, no Senate contest.

MN: Dems won governor, gained 2 House seats, lost 2 House seats, and won both Senate contests.

Other notable developments: Senate

Dems flipped a Senate seat in Arizona.

Reps defeated incumbent Senate Dems in the Red states of Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota.

Other notable developments, House pickups by states not mentioned above:

VA +3 , GA 1, ME 1, NJ 4!, IL 2, KS 1, TX 2, NY 3, OK 1!, CO 1, NM 1, UT 1?, CA 4-6!, WA 1.  

Important Races We're Supporting this Year

As the political races enter their final advocacy stage and get ready to transition to get out the vote efforts, Joan and I sat down to figure who we would support with some financial help. The first criterion we were looking for were close races the Democrat could win, and the second was the impact of a Democratic victory in the race. Our budget was $600. Here’s what we decided to do.

LOCAL

Nathan Fletcher for San Diego County Supervisor. Fletcher would break the current unanimous 5-0 Republican stranglehold on the Board of Supervisors.

Matt Brower for Superior Court Judge. Brower is a responsible and ethical jurist in the Marine Corps with a deliberative judicial temperament, while incumbent Gary Kreep has been admonished by the judicial board for inflammatory and racist comments on the bench, in addition to being a prominent advocate of the “birther” smear against former President Obama.   

GOVERNORS

Andrew Gillum for Governor of Florida. The black Mayor of Tallahassee leads narrowly in most polls. A Democratic governor in Florida would help Democratic chances to win the biggest swing state in the 2020 presidential election. A black governor in a southern state would also be a watershed development, especially since his opponent has a history of palling around with Neo-confederates and opened his campaign with racist dog whistle appeals.

Stacey Abrams for Governor of Georgia. A respected legislative leader in the Georgia state house, Abrams would be the first black woman governor in American history. Take the “watershed” comment about Gillum and multiply it times five! Polls show her running only about one point behind.

US SENATE

Bill Nelson for re-election as Senator from Florida. He’s running neck and neck with right wing rich guy Gov. Rick Scott, someone we really don’t want in the Senate. If Democrats don’t hold on to this seat they can dismiss their already long shot hopes of flipping the Senate. Again, as the biggest swing state, it’s important to have as many Dems in positions of power as possible.

Jacky Rosen for Senator from Nevada. This is probably the best chance to take one of the few endangered Republican Senate seats this year (Arizona and Tennessee are the others). The contest is seen as a tossup that could go either way.

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Harley Rouda in California 48. Rouda seems to have a small lead against “Putin’s favorite congressman,” GOP incumbent Dana Rohrbacher, who is unsurprisingly one of Trump’s biggest fans. Rohrbacher is odious and has to go.

Katie Porter in California 45. This close race with Porter apparently slightly ahead would unseat another Republican, Mimi Walters, and deal a major blow to the GOP in its one-time California stronghold of Orange County.

Elissa Slotkin in Michigan 8. Slotkin has a compelling biography and resume and by winning would unseat another incumbent Rep as the Democrats try to take a majority in the House.