Hillary Bows Out with Class

I want you to read this.Hillary Clinton's unexpected defeat stunned me deeply. Twenty-four hours later I feel the same kind of grief as though a friend had died. It's not quite the America I thought it was. There will be time for post-mortems later. For now I wanted to use this space to share with you the kind of graciousness and class this woman has. Below I have reproduced her letter to her supporters. It is heartfelt and constructive, designed to help heal our country, because that's the kind of person she is.

Steve --

Thank you.

Last night, I congratulated Donald Trump and offered to work with him on behalf of our country. I hope that he will be a successful president for all Americans.

This is not the outcome we wanted or we worked so hard for, and I’m sorry we did not win this election for the values we share and the vision we hold for our country.

But I feel pride and gratitude for this wonderful campaign that we built together –- this vast, diverse, creative, unruly, energized campaign. You represent the best of America, and being your candidate has been one of the greatest honors of my life.

I know how disappointed you feel, because I feel it too. And so do tens of millions of Americans who invested their hopes and dreams in this effort. This is painful, and it will be for a long time. But I want you to remember this: Our campaign was never about one person or even one election. It was about the country we love -- and about building an America that’s hopeful, inclusive, and big-hearted.

We have seen that our nation is more deeply divided than we thought. But I still believe in America –- and I always will. And if you do, too, then we must accept this result -– and then look to the future.

Donald Trump is going to be our president. We owe him an open mind and the chance to lead.

Our constitutional democracy enshrines the peaceful transfer of power, and we don’t just respect that, we cherish it. It also enshrines other things –- the rule of law, the principle that we’re all equal in rights and dignity, and the freedom of worship and expression. We respect and cherish these things too -- and we must defend them.

And let me add: Our constitutional democracy demands our participation, not just every four years, but all the time. So let’s do all we can to keep advancing the causes and values we all hold dear: making our economy work for everyone, not just those at the top; protecting our country and protecting our planet; and breaking down all the barriers that hold anyone back from achieving their dreams.

We’ve spent a year and a half bringing together millions of people from every corner of our country to say with one voice that we believe that the American Dream is big enough for everyone -- for people of all races and religions, for men and women, for immigrants, for LGBT people, and people with disabilities.

Our responsibility as citizens is to keep doing our part to build that better, stronger, fairer America we seek. And I know you will.

I am so grateful to stand with all of you.

I want to thank Tim Kaine and Anne Holton for being our partners on this journey. It gives me great hope and comfort to know that Tim will remain on the front-lines of our democracy, representing Virginia in the Senate.

To Barack and Michelle Obama: Our country owes you an enormous debt of gratitude for your graceful, determined leadership, and so do I.

To Bill, Chelsea, Marc, Charlotte, Aidan, our brothers, and our entire family, my love for you means more than I can ever express.

You crisscrossed this country on my behalf and lifted me up when I needed it most –- even four-month old Aidan traveling with his mom.

I will always be grateful to the creative, talented, dedicated men and women at our headquarters in Brooklyn and across our country who poured their hearts into this campaign. For you veterans, this was a campaign after a campaign -- for some of you, this was your first campaign ever. I want each of you to know that you were the best campaign anyone has had.

To all the volunteers, community leaders, activists, and union organizers who knocked on doors, talked to neighbors, posted on Facebook - even in secret or in private: Thank you.

To everyone who sent in contributions as small as $5 and kept us going, thank you.

And to all the young people in particular, I want you to hear this. I’ve spent my entire adult life fighting for what I believe in. I’ve had successes and I’ve had setbacks -– sometimes really painful ones. Many of you are at the beginning of your careers. You will have successes and setbacks, too.

This loss hurts. But please, please never stop believing that fighting for what’s right is worth it. It’s always worth it. And we need you keep up these fights now and for the rest of your lives.

To all the women, and especially the young women, who put their faith in this campaign and in me, I want you to know that nothing has made me prouder than to be your champion.

I know that we still have not shattered that highest glass ceiling. But some day someone will -– hopefully sooner than we might think right now.

And to all the little girls watching right now, never doubt that you are valuable and powerful and deserving of every chance and opportunity in the world.

Finally, I am grateful to our country for all it has given me.

I count my blessings every day that I am an American. And I still believe, as deeply as I ever have, that if we stand together and work together, with respect for our differences, strength in our convictions, and love for this nation -– our best days are still ahead of us.

You know I believe we are stronger together and will go forward together. And you should never be sorry that you fought for that.

Scripture tells us: “Let us not grow weary in doing good, for in due season, we shall reap, if we do not lose heart.”

My friends, let us have faith in each other. Let us not grow weary. Let us not lose heart. For there are more seasons to come and there is more work to do.

I am incredibly honored and grateful to have had this chance to represent all of you in this consequential election. May God bless you and god bless the United States of America.

Hillary

Why We Need Hillary Clinton

Some of my progressive friends downplay or are unimpressed by the prospect of a Hillary Clinton presidency. Some may be unenthusiastic about voting for her, but I feel such sentiments are seriously misplaced. There are plenty of reasons to vote for Clinton based on what she will do and try to do, irrespective of the necessity of voting against the horror that would be a President Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton in the White House would move the ball forward on a number of crucial issues. Everything mentioned below would likely go the other way and be lost in the event she is not elected. So be sure to vote! Here are ten to ponder:

1. The Supreme and lower Federal Courts. She will nominate judges who will restore the Voting Rights Act, overturn the awful Citizens United and McCutcheon rulings, safeguard women's rights to make their own decisions on reproductive issues, defend the recent rulings on LGBT rights, and allow reasonable safety measures with regards to curtailing gun deaths without taking away the legitimate rights of law-abiding gun-owners.

2. We will finally get a comprehensive immigration plan that secures the border, protects American workers, and makes reasonable accommodation to US businesses to legally bring in foreign workers when necessary. This will be done while still keeping immigrant families together and providing a path to citizenship to the undocumented who have been here a long time, are self-supporting and have stayed out of legal trouble.

3. The wealthy and corporations will see their taxes go up, though not to the levels they were under Dwight Eisenhower in the 1950s. The revenues generated will create tremendous opportunity, including free state university for the working and middle class, paid family leave for new mothers and fathers, make America the world leader in solar energy and create 10.5 million jobs in a massive renovation of our national infrastructure. If you've been overseas anytime recently you know how badly we need this.

4. We will uphold our climate agreements and make it at least possible to avoid the worst effects of human-generated climate change.

5. Twenty million people will not have health insurance taken away from them.

6. She will fight for a national minimum wage increase to $15 an hour.

7. The NATO alliance will be preserved. The only way Vladimir Putin's Russia dares to move on former Soviet-occupied states such as Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland and others is if NATO breaks up or the U.S. gives indications it may not defend its allies in Europe, as Trump has done. She won't let that happen.

8. Iran won't get the bomb. Rather than "tear up" the Iran nuclear deal, which would remove all our inspectors, give Iran free rein to pursue nuclear weapons, and leave us with no other option but military attack, Clinton will keep the agreement in place and enforce it.

9. The U.S. will remain committed to nuclear non-proliferation. The policy under a Clinton presidency will be to prevent the spread of nukes to any new countries, as opposed to Trump's view that places like Saudi Arabia and Japan probably ought to have them.

10. Our daughters and granddaughters will finally see that the American dream can happen for them;  that smart, committed females can be the boss too!

Clinton Wins First Debate

Interesting snapshot from CNN polling on tonight's first debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Their sample of over 500 registered voters was asked who won the debate. They broke 62% for Clinton to 27% for Trump. The sample was 10% more Democratic and 2% less Republican than the population as a whole, so corrected for that it would still read 52% thought Clinton won and 29% thought Trump did. It was a decisive win for Clinton, who was the more knowledgeable and presidential of the two by far. CNN's focus group of 20 undecided voters is a smaller sample, but was even more decisive. 18 of the 20 said Clinton won the debate. 100 million people watched the debate, a huge audience. We'll see if this performance moves the national polling Clinton's way by the end of the week or so.

Presidential Race: Time to Ante Up and Pitch In

In a typically thorough and brilliant analysis, Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com election prediction operation finds the gap between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump narrowing. Read his latest ten-point analysis here. Silver has predicted the last two presidential elections with remarkable accuracy. His projections currently give Clinton about a two-to-one 67% to 33% likelihood of winning the election.

I said I'd be concerned and comment if Trump's chances got above 30 and so they have. I am concerned. Clinton's still in the driver's seat in popular vote and electorally, but the slide had better stop. What's happening? She's been off the campaign trail most of August, raising a massive haul of money ($140 million). She needs to and is now back campaigning. That money needs to buy a flood of effective adds, positive and negative, and fund a great organizational registration and get out the vote, (GOTV) effort, especially in the battleground states. This is where Clinton would have a big edge in states that are very close. She has dozens of offices in Florida and Ohio, for example, while Trump has only a small handful. But she's also hurt by the incessant drip about emails, eroding credibility among the persuadable. Clinton must break through the sleaze reporting with her positive growth plans and needs to (and should) turn in her normally impressive debate performances which should highlight how much more she knows, is better prepared, and is personally suited for the presidency than Trump.

The odds are about right. She is ahead and ought to win. But there is enough of a chance for Trump that it's not a certainty. That's cause to keep taking action. I just made my fifth contribution to the campaign since she announced. The Young Democrats college club I sponsor voted today to join the Registration and GOTV effort and commit to signing up 200 voters and then walking precincts the last two weeks up to Nov 8. We're still ahead and have the inside track with a more plausible route to the winning total of 270 electoral votes. But it's no time to rest easy at all.

Clinton on Education

I went to Hillary Clinton's web site to see where she stands on education issues. A visit to her site is very instructive in itself. She has detailed sets of policy plans on innumerable topics. These are specific, include references, and are interwoven into a coherent whole. It is clearly the work of a candidate and campaign that has thought deeply about national imperatives and human needs and has paid attention to the specifics of what it would take to effectuate constructive change.

Clinton has seen the research on early childhood education and wants to give it a boost. She would make preschool available for all 4-year-olds in America, double the Head Start budget, and cap any family's child care at 10% of their family earnings, to be guaranteed by subsidies or tax credits. The integrated nature of her planning is evident here, as the funding would come from specific tax reforms detailed in her Tax section, including instituting the "Buffet Rule" (millionaires have to pay a minimum 30% tax rate), closing the carried interest and offshore loopholes and assessing a Wall Street transactions tax.

Among her plans for K-12 education are a program to double the Build America Bonds program to reconstruct decaying schools, to give federal help for computer literacy, recognizing that half a million computer jobs are currently unfilled, and a program to "elevate the teaching profession" to attract and better train the highest caliber of teachers, including through higher pay. There would be an extensive expansion of career technical education for those going into blue-collar trades.

Her higher education plans show she has a keen understanding of what is holding many people back from achieving to their potential. Hillary proposes a $1500 scholarship for child care expenses for college students who are parents. Her plan would make all community colleges tuition free, public 4-year colleges tuition free immediately for all families earning less than $85,000 and for all families earning less than $125,000 within four years. She would allow current student debts to be refinanced at current interest rates, helping 25 million people. Student loan costs would be capped at 10% of a person's income, and would be erased after 20 years, after 10 years if the graduate took a public interest job. She would fund expanded child care at universities to handle an additional 250,000 children, making it possible for more young parents to attend college.

In general, Mrs. Clinton's education policy approach is to make learning more universal and accessible for all our people. She would recycle some of the revenues more recently given in tax breaks into providing greater opportunities for more Americans to get the skills they and the nation need to compete in the contemporary world.

First 2016 Presidential Vote Forecast is Good News for Clinton

Democrats should take heart at the first comprehensive analysis of the 2016 presidential race by election prognosticator par excellence Nate Silver: Hillary Clinton has about an 80% chance of winning, he says. This is delivered, of course, with the essential warning that it's still very early at four months out, and no one should be counting any chickens yet. Go to his full article here. 

The current model, based on polling alone, has Clinton ahead in the popular vote 48.8% to 42.0% for Donald Trump, with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson currently at 7.9%. The state map has Clinton with 348 electoral votes to Trump's 190. Battleground states where the lead is relatively close shape up this way. Clinton is ahead in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and New Hampshire. Trump has the edge in Missouri, Arizona and Georgia. The statistical probability of a Clinton election is 79.2%, for a Trump win is 20.7%. You can go to Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com site and play with his election maps here.

Silver's "Polls Plus" model gives Trump a slightly higher chance for an upset. This calculation goes beyond current polls to add in historical data such as the effect of a two-term president of one party not seeking re-election, and the present economic conditions under those circumstances. This calculation gives Clinton a 73.3% chance compared to Trump's 26.6%. The electoral vote probability in this scenario has Clinton at 316 and Trump at 222. The chief switches are to put North Carolina in the Republican column and pull Arizona and Georgia out of near tossups and assign them "lean Republican" status.

Silver's statistical wizardry is legendary. He correctly called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states for the 2008 election, and forecast all 50 states correctly in 2012.

Hillary Clinton's Fresno Rally

I went to the Hillary Clinton rally at Fresno's Edison High School yesterday with local friends Ruth McKee and Kathleen Dowling. We arrived about 3:15 and doors were to open at 5:00, so you can see from the picture we had an outstanding view. The temperature was 105 but thankfully most of our wait was under shade and the event was inside in the air conditioned gym. News organizations and the police estimated the crowd at 1500.

Hillary was dynamic, confident and on her game. She looks and sounds better in person than on television. As she approaches the finish line of the campaign season she seems to be having fun. Her 30-minute talk included plenty of progressive policy solutions, effective digs at presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump, and enough personal asides to keep it warm. This is a woman in command of the issues and ready for the challenges ahead.


Democratic Presidential Front Runner Hillary Clinton at Edison High in Fresno, June 4, 2016


She promised to work hard from inauguration day on a sane immigration law that will include a path to citizenship for the foreign workers and their families who are here. She proposes a massive infrastructure program across America, "We have been living on an investment made by our parents and grandparents, in highways, bridges, airports, communications and water systems." These need to be restored and brought up to twenty-first century standards. And, she exclaimed, "The millions of jobs this creates cannot be outsourced!" She said that either China, Germany or the United States will lead the world in clean energy production this century. "Why shouldn't it be us? she asked. "If I am so fortunate as to be your president, it will be." She called for raising the minimum wage to at least $12, and would encourage states to match California's $15. She was foursquare for women's rights and LGBT rights, and promised to only nominate judges who would protect a woman's right to choose, restore the Voting Rights Act, preserve marriage equality and overturn Citizens United. She supports community college "as close to free as possible" and "debt-free" public university education. The audience joined in on her now-famous line, "If insisting that women have control over their own bodies and that they get equal pay for equal work is playing the woman card, then deal me in!"

Secretary Clinton related a story about the Bin Laden raid to underscore some of her differences with Trump. She detailed the careful planning and frank discussion form all angles within the administration before presenting the final decision to the President. She contrasted that with Trump's rash, impatient style. She related that one of the two helicopters involved was damaged on the way in. After fighting their way past Bin Laden's bodyguards and getting the terror leader himself, they had to destroy the chopper to prevent its secrets from falling into foreign hands. Clinton told how before they demolished the helicopter, the SEALS moved all the women and children from the compound to safety from the explosives. She contrasted that with Trump's stated preference for killing the families of terrorists. She also went through the themes she had introduced two days before about the foolishness of Trump's more outrageous foreign policy "ideas" to good effect. See them described in my previous blog here.

All in all, it was a terrific week. I'd been to the Bernie Sanders rally on Sunday in Visalia and then got to see Hillary Clinton on Saturday. I'm more convinced than ever of being on the right side of the values and issues in question after hearing from the similar perspectives of these two fine candidates. It's also a great feeling for me, a history teacher, to be present for some of the making of that history. I'm pretty sure I've seen the next president of the United States. And there's never been anyone more ready for the job than she is.

Clinton Eviscerates Trump, Turns Campaign Corner

Hillary Clinton had a turning point moment in her presidential candidacy yesterday in San Diego. Abandoning the carefully controlled and reactive approach that's characterized her public persona too often up to now, she eviscerated presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in a blistering tour-de-force of an address highlighting foreign policy. See the speech here. This is the Hillary Clinton--confident, competent, laser-focused and passionate--who can and will be elected America's forty-fifth president this November. She seemed to relish the chance to throw off the reins and go on the all-out offensive. She seemed to be having fun. It was the best speech of her campaign up to now by far. You really ought to go to the link and take a look at it.

Readers of this column have seen me say before that the way to destroy the Trump candidacy is to relentlessly repeat his own words. He must be made to own his remarks about such things as admiration for dictators, American wages being too high, intentionally proliferating nuclear weapons, leaving NATO and opening a global trade war. Mexicans, women, Muslims, the disabled, African-Americans and the others he has gratuitously insulted must be reminded over and over again of Trump's misogyny, xenophobia, racism and ignorance. At the very time Clinton was making her effectively scathing remarks, for instance, Trump was complaining to CNN's Jake Tapper in a live interview that the federal judge presiding over the case against defunct real estate school Trump University, Gonzalo Curiel, could not be trusted to handle the case impartially "because he is Mexican." See interview here. (Curiel is an American citizen born in Indiana of Mexican ancestry.)

Polls in the next few days will likely begin to show a widening of the margin between Clinton and Trump. The mogul is wily and resourceful, but this will be the beginning of his ultimate defeat. Racism and attitude can evidently take you all the way in a Republican primary contest, but will be unable to carry the day in this diverse nation as a whole, so long as his opponent doesn't give him a free pass, effectively takes him on, and presents a positive alternative. Clinton showed yesterday that she gets that.

I went to the Bernie Sanders rally in Visalia on Sunday, May 29. I'm also planning to attend the Clinton rally tomorrow in Fresno, and am really looking forward to it. I'll give you a synopsis and comparison afterward.

Primary Update: Do Hillary and Trump have Things Locked Up?

It's time for our weekly look-in at the 2016 presidential races. Big wins in New York by the two front runners, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, are the key development this week. The key question is whether this translates into nomination gold for them. We'll look first at the Democrats and then the Republicans.

Democrats

Hillary Clinton's 16-point 58 to 42 percent win over Bernie Sanders gave her a delegate edge of 139 to 106 in the Empire State. That lengthens her delegate lead by 33 in the race for the nomination. In the overall count of pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses she now has 1428 to his 1151. There are 1472 pledged delegates left to win in the states that haven't voted yet. A total of 2026 secures the majority, so Hillary would need 598 of those, about 40.5%. Bernie would have to win 875, about 59.5%. He'd have to win the remaining contests by an average of 19 points to overtake Hillary. Is that possible?

To find out, let's look at what's coming up in next Tuesday's votes. Five Northeastern states will be in play on April 26, all holding primaries. All Democratic contests award delegates proportionally to the vote. So, does the Bern look to have a good chance to do some catching up? Well, if the polls are anything close to accurate, not so much. Pennsylvania is the big prize, 189 delegates. Hillary leads there by 16 points in the average of recent polling. Maryland offers 95 delegates, with Hillary up by 21. Connecticut has 55 and Hillary leads there by an average of 7. Then you have two small states with only one recent poll in each. Rhode Island has 24 delegates and the one survey there had Clinton up by 9. Delaware will send 21 delegates to the convention in Philadelphia, and the one poll taken there this month showed Hillary ahead by 7. If these polls are right, and most recent polling this primary season has had good accuracy, the former Secretary of State will win 219 delegates next Tuesday and the Vermont Senator will pick up 165.  That means another 54 added to Clinton's lead.

So it's looking more and more that the Democratic nomination is effectively wrapped up. After those results next Tuesday, Sanders would have to win all the remaining races by an average of almost 30 points to catch up in pledged delegates. And if you add in the super delegates it's even more certain. Hillary has the support of 502 to Bernie's 38, with 172 still undeclared. With them counted into the mix Bernie would need a whopping 72 percent of all the still unchosen delegates to win at the convention. The bottom line? It's all over but the shouting. Hillary Clinton is the 2016 Democratic nominee.

Republicans

On the GOP side the main question is whether Donald Trump can clinch the nomination on the first ballot of the Cleveland convention. After taking 60 percent of the vote in his home state to 25 for John Kasich and 15 for Ted Cruz, Trump walked away with 89 delegates to Kasich's 3. He now has 845, followed by Cruz with 559, Marco Rubio, who has suspended his campaign, with 171, and Kasich with 148. Trump needs 1237 for a first-ballot convention triumph and there are 674 Republican delegates still to be awarded in the upcoming states. That means The Donald would need to get 392 of them, a little over 58 percent. Is that doable? Well, it looks like it's going to be very close one way or the other. He could just make it or could fall just short. Complicating matters are the varied and sometimes bizarre delegate selection formulas used by Republican parties in the different states.

Here's how things stand in the five April 26 Republican primaries. Pennsylvania has 71 delegates and the polls say Trump 44, Cruz 25, Kasich 24. Maryland gets 38 and the race is similar to Pennsylvania's, Trump 41, Kasich 26 and Cruz 25. Connecticut, 28 delegates, has Trump at 49, Kasich 27 and Cruz 18. Then come Rhode Island and Delaware, with only one poll each, as with the Dems. RI has 19 delegates and the one poll from February gave Trump 43 with Cruz and 10 and Kasich at 14. Rubio had 25 percent support back then. Delaware has 16 delegates and the one April poll showed a big lead for Trump: 55 to 18 for Kasich and 15 for Cruz. In terms of delegates, as near as I can figure given the different rules in play in each state, Trump stands to win 71 delegates, Cruz 12 and Kasich 18.

Then there are 54 delegates to be elected in Pennsylvania's 18 congressional districts, three per district, who are winner take all by district, but who are not bound to vote for the winning candidate of their district once they get to the convention. Talk about strange. Depending on who those delegates are and how they are selected, they could vote for anybody even if Trump wins their district. And judging from the polling there, one would expect Trump to win most of those districts. But GOP insiders do not have much love for Trump, so who knows what they might do if Trump's campaign apparatus can't insure their supporters occupy those seats. If they can, Trump would come away with 105 delegates next Tuesday to Cruz's 22 and Kasich's 28.That would leave Trump at 950 delegates, needing 287 more to get to the magic number with 539 still to be elected in the remaining states. That outcome would bring Trump's needed percentage to clinch down to 53.2%, seemingly a doable feat, especially considering he is running 9 points ahead in delegate-rich California, which awards most of its delegates to congressional district winners on a winner-take all basis. But if the insider game denies him those votes, he would need 63 percent of the rest of the unchosen delegates to win on the first ballot in Cleveland, a much taller order. The bottom line on the Republican side is that it's nip and tuck and could go either way. It should be pretty dramatic to watch.

Can Sanders Catch Clinton?

Can Bernie Sanders catch Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination? Today's analysis points up both the difficulties and the possibilities.

 
The starting point is the delegate contest. At the end of the day the candidate with a majority of delegates at the convention will be nominee. No amount of hype or spin can diminish that reality.  Up to now Hillary Clinton has won 1280 pledged delegates in the primaries and caucuses so far. Bernie Sanders has won 1030. There are 3964 pledged delegates to be won in all the contests. So a majority is 1983. There are 18 states and two territories still to vote, with 1661 delegates at stake. According to Democratic Party rules, they will be allotted proportionally, so that in each contest if a candidate wins 55% of the vote they will get 55% of the delegates at stake. That means Secretary Clinton still needs 703 of those 1661, or 42.3% of them. Starting with 1030, Senator Sanders needs 953 of the 1661 still out there, or 57.4%, to wind up with the majority. That means Bernie needs to win all the remaining states by an average of 15.1% to get ahead of Hillary in the pledged delegate count. That's a really tall order. His latest win, Wisconsin, was regarded as a decisive victory. Yet even there he came away with 55.8% of the 86 delegates up for grabs. That's below the percentage he needs from here on out.

And then there are the superdelegates to consider. The Democrats give convention votes to 712 nationwide party officials, such as congress members, governors, and mayors of large cities. 500 of these have committed to a candidate so far, and 469 of those have declared for Mrs. Clinton. Only 31 have come out for Bernie Sanders. So with the supers added in, that ups the convention delegate total to 4,763, with 2382 needed for a majority and the nomination. With her 469 superdelegates Hillary actually has 1749 delegate votes in hand. Adding his 31 supers, the Bern has 1061. That changes the calculation quite a bit. Clinton needs 633 more delegates to get from 1749 to 2382, and that's only 32.4% of the combination of pledged delegates and uncommitted superdelegates left. Sanders would have to get 1321 of them, or 67.6% of those still to be won. That's a real mountain, and probably outside the bounds of what is realistically achievable. In other words, by either the pledged delegates alone, or certainly with the superdelegates thrown in, Bernie's chances are a real longshot and highly improbable.

So the Sanders campaign has hit upon another strategy, and it could conceivably work. Their thinking is that if the Vermonter can continue to pull off a string of primary victories, especially in the big important states like New York, Pennsylvania and California, he can convince Clinton supers that she is fading and flip many who have said they are for Clinton over to his cause. So, what are the chances of that? Well, Sanders still has work to do. There is recent polling out in four important upcoming states. New York votes on April 19, with 247 delegates to win. (Election poll sourcing.) The last three polls there have Clinton ahead by 12, 10 and 18 points. Pennsylvania chooses 189 delegates on April 26, and the three most recent polls have Clinton ahead by 25, 22 and 6. Maryland awards 95 delegates on the same day, with Clinton up by 15 in the only recent poll taken there. California and its massive delegation of 475 delegates will be decided on June 7. The last four recent surveys there have Clinton ahead by 7, 11, 14 and 6.

The upshot is that the numbers heavily favor Hillary Clinton. Bernie Sanders, to win, has to come from behind in all these states by strong margins, strong enough to shake the majority of superdelegates so that they defect to his side. If I were handicapping odds I'd put Hillary Clinton's chances at better than 80% of being the Democratic nominee. Can Sanders win? It is not likely, but it is possible, but only if the Democratic electorate from here on out decides it wants to support him in a pretty overwhelming way.

March 15 Primaries: What to Look For

Five populous states rich in delegates will be up for grabs in tomorrow's March 15 primary contests. The main question to be answered in these important primaries is whether the Democratic and Republican challengers can blunt the momentum of front runners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in their respective races. We'll start with the Democrats first.

Democrats
Hillary Clinton starts with a 215-delegate lead among pledged delegates elected so far, 766 to 551. Among the roughly 700 superdelegates, who can vote for whomever they wish, she has been endorsed so far by 461 while only 25 have have declared they are backing Bernie Sanders. Sanders's strategy thus has to be to win states by convincing enough margins that he overcomes Clinton's pledged delegate lead and also makes superdelegates change their minds.
North Carolina has 107 delegates at stake. Polls show Clinton ahead by an average of 24 points, 57 to 33 percent. Her lead has been shrinking, so let me generously (for Bernie) project that she holds on by a narrow 52-48 margin. That would give Hillary 56 delegates and Bernie 51.
Florida has a trove of 214 delegates. Clinton is way ahead in all polls. Her average lead is 29 points, 61 percent to 32. If we give Bernie all the undecideds and call the outcome 60-40 for Hillary, she will come home with 128 delegates and he will get 86.
Ohio sends 143 delegates to the Democratic convention in Philadelphia. Polls have Clinton up by an average of 8 points, 51 to 43. Her lead has been shrinking, so let's suppose Sanders nips her at the wire and wins by an eyelash. Call it 72 delegates for the Bern, 71 for Hillary.
Illinois elects 156 Democratic delegates. Polls show a virtual dead heat, with the Secretary up by 48-46 over the Senator. Again, momentum is moving Sanders's way, so we'll project another buzzer beater win for the Vermonter: 79 delegates to 77.
Missouri chooses 71 delegates. It's another state in which polls give Clinton a narrow lead, 46-43 in this case. Once again, let's presume the challenger closes the gap and ekes out a victory, 36 delegates to 35. 

The end of all this, which I've shaded toward Sanders in every case, is two wins for Clinton, one of them solid, and three close wins for Sanders. The important factor is that Hillary has her biggest lead in the biggest state with the most delegates, Florida. The end of all this results in 367 delegates won for her and 324 delegates won for him. Hillary stands to increase her lead by around 43 delegates, giving her 1133 pledged delegates to Bernie's 875 by the end of the night. With 4,000 total pledged delegates to be won by the end of the primary season, this means Sanders would need to win 1,126 of the 1,992 delegates in the remaining primaries and caucuses to catch up. That means winning every state by an average of 56.5% to 43.5%, a 13-point margin. That is, frankly, a very tall order. If you add in the superdelegates, she will be ahead 1594 to 900, and would need only 788 of the 2270 delegates of both types to win the nomination. That's only 35 percent. So, unless there is a severe collapse in Clinton's support, she has to be considered the prohibitive favorite to be the nominee. On election night, watch the returns from North Carolina first, then Florida. If North Carolina is going Bernie's way, the miracle for him could be happening. If Clinton isn't rolling up a big margin in Florida it portends major problems for her in the states that report in later. But if they are going according to form, Hillary Clinton will be one step closer to the Democratic nomination.

Republicans
Donald Trump has a 90-delegate lead on Ted Cruz, his closest pursuer. Marco Rubio and John Kasich trail farther behind. The current count is Trump 460, Cruz 370, Rubio 163 and Kasich 63. That gives Trump 44% of the delegates awarded so far, tantalizingly close to the 50 percent pace he needs to secure the nomination on the first ballot. The clear leader in four of the five states at issue, he stands a good chance to add to that percentage when the votes are counted from this next round.
North Carolina offers 72 GOP delegates. Trump enjoys a 12-point polling margin on Cruz there 41-29, with Kasich (11) and Rubio (9) being non-factors. Prediction: 35 delegates for Trump, 28 for Cruz, 5 for Kasich and 4 for Rubio.
Florida has 99 delegates on the table, and the state is winner take all. It's do or die for Rubio in his home state, and it's not looking good for him. Average surveys have Trump at 43, Rubio at 24, Cruz with 19 and Kasich at 9. Chalk up 99 delegates for the Donald.
Ohio has 66 at stake and it's also winner take all. As with Rubio in Florida, it's win or go home for John Kasich in the Buckeye state. But this time, it looks like Ohio Republicans are turning to their home state governor. It's still close: surveys give Kasich an average of 38 to Trump's 34, but the trend has been moving his way, so I'll predict a Kasich win. Besides, if he doesn't the race is practically over. So 66 delegates for John Kasich.
Illinois has 69 delegates, to be distributed proportionally. Polls say Trump 35, Cruz 26, Cruz 18 and Rubio 13. If that's how it comes down Trump will win 28, Cruz 21, Kasich 12 and Rubio 8.
Missouri wraps up the day's voting with 52 delegates. It has a GOP allotment process that I'll call "winner take most." There's only been one poll there, and it shows Trump 36 percent, Cruz 29, Rubio 9 and Kasich 8. If that is accurate Trump will win 36 delegates and Cruz will take in 16.

Four wins for the night for Trump would give him 198 of the 358 delegates at stake. Kasich, thanks primarily to winning Ohio, would get 83. Cruz would add 65 and Rubio 12. The standings at the end of the day would read Trump 658, Cruz 435, Rubio 175 and Kasich 146.  With 1,058 delegates left in the contests ahead, Trump would need 579 to lock down the nomination, 54.7% of all those still to be won. Rubio would likely have to exit the race after losing Florida, leaving Kasich as the remaining conventional Republican hope. There are still several winner take all contests left, especially the big prize of California. Unless Cruz can pull some unexpected upsets in places like Missouri, North Carolina and Illinois, the Trump train appears on track to steam its way to the nomination at Cleveland. And if Kasich doesn't win Ohio, that will become almost inevitable.

Three Contests Crucial to Democratic Nomination Battle

The Democratic presidential contest is now down to a one-on-one contest between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. In Iowa's caucuses Clinton's careful attention to organization, learned in a bitter lesson eight years ago against Barack Obama and John Edwards, squared off against Sanders's enthusiasm factor. The collision produced the closest thing to a draw, with Clinton claiming bragging rights with a win of two-tenths of a percentage point and a 23-21 edge in delegates won. The basic takeaway is that this is a real horse race--Bernie will not go gentle into the night. And though Secretary Clinton has a preponderance of national strength, Senator Sanders has a launching pad coming up and a message that resonates with the Democratic base. The odds still favor Clinton. Yet Sanders is getting plenty of money to compete from small contributions. A powerful early win for him could seriously deflate her electability argument and give the ardent transplanted Brooklynite a path to victory.  But strong rebounds by Clinton in South Carolina and Nevada could set up a near-sweep for her on Super Tuesday and put the nomination within her grasp.

The dynamic in play is that Sanders has tapped into the issue that resonates most strongly with the Democratic base: income inequality, and an influence and campaign finance system that most believe acts to rig the economy and opportunity to the benefit of corporations and the wealthy few. Clinton has the overwhelming backing of the Democratic Party and its office holders. She has the competence edge, with an encyclopedic grasp of every issue, foreign and domestic. Both are liberal, or progressive in wanting to protect civil rights and programs that help average Americans. Sanders is clearly the more liberal, though, wanting to extend these programs much farther than she proposes. His hurdle is moving past being a one-issue candidate. Hers is providing a compelling vision for her candidacy beyond experience.

Here's what's in store in the primary calendar: This Tuesday February 9 is the New Hampshire primary. 32 delegates are at stake, and Sanders is odds on to win big. In a New England state that borders Bernie's Vermont, the poll averages read Sanders 54.6 and Clinton 40.1. That's a 14.5% lead for the Bern. The trend has leveled off, though. Sanders' lead went from 6.7% on January 17 up to 19.5%, but now has begun to float back a bit given the last couple of surveys. The gap has narrowed 5.1% in the last 5 days. If Hillary can get this back to single digits by Tuesday it will help blunt his momentum.

The next contest is South Carolina on Saturday, February 20. It's a primary vote with 59 delegates at stake. This state is supposed to be a Clinton firewall to break Sanders' momentum if he wins New Hampshire. The last surveys give Clinton an overwhelming lead by an average margin of almost 30 points, 62% to 32.5%. The majority of Democratic voters in South Carolina are black, a demographic that polls strongly loyal to Secretary Clinton nation-wide. There are two considerations that might change this calculus. First, there hasn't been any recent polling there. The most up-to-date ones were completed January 21 and 23. Second, if Sanders pulls off a big win in the New Hampshire primary it's not clear how damaging that might be to Hillary's overall national position with voters. She still holds a commanding fourteen-point lead across America, 50% to 36%, but no one is sure if or by how much that might erode if a sharp blow to her inevitability case is inflicted in the Granite State.

Presuming a strong Clinton win in South Carolina, the next battle will be in Nevada, which holds caucuses Saturday February 27 to allot the Silver State's 43 delegates. Nevada is 27.5% Latino and 9% African-American, numbers that should help the Clinton cause. The numbers we have gave Hillary a big 19.5% lead there (50% to 30.5%), but they are old. There haven't been any polls there since December 27. I think Nevada will be of great significance. If Clinton thumps the Bern it will begin to deflate the excitement and hope of his candidacy. If he wins, it will fuel the passion of his supporters and the impression that Hillary's star is on the decline.  

Only three days later comes "Super Tuesday," March 1, when 12 Democratic contests are scheduled. These include 7 in the South, where Hillary ought to be favored. These are Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. There are 4 in the North, where Bernie's chances are likely to be better: Vermont, Colorado, Massachusetts and Minnesota. There will also be a caucus in American Samoa. By the end of the evening of Tuesday, March 1, the shape of the Democratic race and the probable winner will almost certainly be known.     

 

Hillary Turns Benghazi Tables on GOP

Hillary Clinton's testimony before the House Benghazi Committee last Friday was a remarkable display in many respects. She has rarely been more impressive, and a political show trial has not been more obviously exposed as a partisan witch hunt since the McCarthy hearings of the 1950s. You can watch C-Span footage of it here.

Secretary Clinton, in short, mopped the floor with her Republican interrogators. She kept her cool through a grueling 11-hour marathon of grilling, accusation and unfounded innuendo, answering each question forthrightly. Some tried to make the case she didn't care about the men who died. Several tried to raise questions about her email server, or the fact that she is friends with Sidney Blumenthal and got a lot of emails from him. A couple insinuated she ordered a CIA security team to stand down, or prevented military forces from flying in from Italy. (The CIA team got to the Benghazi compound in 24 minutes. Forces from Italy would have taken hours to get there.) Most questioners adopted an unprofessional tone of badgering rudeness rather than that of an objective panel trying to find new facts about what happened and good ideas about preventing the next such incident.

This was the eighth investigation into the Benghazi attack, but this is the only one that hasn't bothered to interview the military or intelligence officials involved. They have only wanted to talk to Hillary Clinton and her aide Huma Abedin. Their "investigation" has lasted longer than the Pearl Harbor and 9/11 commissions. It's even surpassed the Watergate hearings. Yet they have released no report and no recommendations. To give you an idea of how a responsible, bipartisan committee operates, here is a link to the Senate Intelligence Committee's report and recommendations on the same topic. 

Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy was the first to officially admit what everyone suspected all along, letting the cat out of the bag by admitting the committee was an exercise designed to damage Clinton's poll numbers. Watch him here. Republican Representative Richard Hanna of New York admitted the same thing. As a result, and combined with Mrs. Clinton's well-prepared and unflappable testimony, their plans have backfired. Following the committee hearing, her poll numbers have actually soared, as you can see here.

As usual, transparently mean-spirited Republicans have overplayed their hand. Instead of hurting the Clinton campaign, they have succeeded in providing her a forum in which she looked to the whole nation as just what they didn't want--presidential.

GOP Outs Itself on Benghazi

Good, we can stop with the pretenses now. The never ending investigations of Hillary Clinton over Benghazi have been an exercise in craven political theater, meant to damage the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. We have this on the word of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), the number two House Republican. The likely new Speaker of the House to succeed retiring John Boehner was attempting to curry favor with conservative Republican voters on the Sean Hannity Fox "News" program when he said this:

What you’re going to see is a conservative speaker, that takes a conservative Congress, that puts a strategy to fight and win. And let me give you one example. Everybody thought Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, right? But we put together a Benghazi special committee. A select committee. What are her numbers today? Her numbers are dropping. Why? Because she’s untrustable. But no one would have known that any of that had happened had we not fought to make that happen.

If you want to see McCarthy say it in his own words, go here.


So the soon-to-be most powerful figure in the GOP congress admits these interminable hearings are a "strategy to fight and win." Commentator Michael Kinsley once observed that a gaffe is "when a politician tells the truth — some obvious truth he isn't supposed to say." McCarthy's "gaffe" has exposed this charade for what it is. There have been 8 investigations of Benghazi up to now, 7 congressional and one independent. All have exonerated Secretary Clinton of any malfeasance or negligence. None has found dereliction of duty or State Department conspiracy in play in the tragic killing of four American personnel there. Yet Secretary Clinton is about to be hauled before yet another one of these hearings Wednesday, October 22. At least now the public will know for sure what this is all about.

Trump Phenomenon Tip of Iceberg

What's going on with the Donald Trump phenomenon? I got a note from friend Tim Garner who sent me a link to an opinion piece by Glenn Reynolds in USA Today expounding on the popularity of not only Donald Trump but also Bernie Sanders. You can go to it here. Reynolds's basic point is that the political class is out of touch with everyday Americans and their concerns, and people are looking for solutions outside of the bromides they typically hear from the same old insiders. Reynolds writes, "Trump’s rise is, like that of his Democratic counterpart Bernie Sanders, a sign that a large number of voters don’t feel represented by more mainstream politicians." He is unquestionably right in that assessment.

Where he isn't right is in his contention that the "ruling class" and the political class are the same thing, and in his statement that the big problem is that this ruling class presents an unbroken wall where "On many issues...the Republican and Democratic establishments agree." Anyone who has been paying even minimal attention the past several years is aware of the across-the-board gridlock resulting from irreconcilable Republican and Democratic views on things like health care, taxes, war, immigration, LGBT rights, climate change, the minimum wage, international relations, Medicare and Social Security. Both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have made reversing income inequality the cornerstones of their respective campaigns, for instance. In neither of the recent top-tier nor the second string Republican debates was one word spoken of it. The ruling class are the billionaires with the money. They work hard to game the system so that the political class are their puppets. The GOP almost completely is. The Democrats are not yet fully so.     

There is no question these candidates are indeed, as the author states, tapping into an angst among the rank and file that feels increasingly alienated from the political and/or ruling class. The root of the angst is that the standard of living and opportunity ladder for average Americans has stagnated for over three decades now. The problem of focusing this discontent is that the disaffected are not of one mind. The Tea Party types who like Trump (Cruz, Paul, Carson, et. al.) think government is the problem and want to devolve it. The Leftish types who like Sanders think corporatism and plutocracy are the problem and want strong government under the people's control to rein in this ruling class and force it to share the profits with the workers and provide more opportunity (free college, medical care and so on) to the average folks. It will be fascinating (maybe frightening) to see how this eventually explodes.

Getting the billionaire and corporate money out of the political campaign process is, in my view, the prerequisite for heading off the explosion and restoring better responsiveness. I am, as you likely know, in sympathy with what I referred to as the Leftish analysis.

Clinton Exonerated on Benghazi

Media outlets, particularly those with political axes to grind who breathlessly report stories when the first suppositions come in are often left looking rather foolish following a more complete examination of the relevant information.  Recent revelations about the deaths of Ambassador to Libya Chris Stevens and three other Americans at the U.S. mission in Benghazi last September 11 at the hands of terrorists are a case in point.

Fox News has, to no one's surprise, been joining the Republican congressional chorus seeking political blood regarding the attack.  The prime target has been former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and the political reason for that is obvious.  Polls show her to be the prohibitive favorite to capture the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination if she runs, and the heavy favorite in the general election against any of the likely Republican nominees that November.

Fox News therefore reported that on August 15 our embassy in Tripoli, Libya, the capital, held a meeting on the dangerous security situation on the other side of the country at our mission in Benghazi.  They sent out a cable the next day saying a message would be drafted soon to make clear what would be needed.  It read, "In light of the uncertain security environment, the US Mission Benghazi will submit specific requests to US Embassy Tripoli for additional physical security upgrades and staffing needs."  So if that is all you know, along with the tragic deaths some four weeks later, then it is easy to jump to a conclusion.  

However, McClatchy News reporter Nancy Youssef has done a little more digging and come up with the rest of the story.  In an account published today, she reports that the fact is the very next day Gen. Carter Ham, in charge of U.S. Africa Command, without even waiting for the promised cable, personally telephoned Ambassador Stevens and asked him if he wanted a special security detail or other support.  Stevens said no.  Gen. Ham next spoke with Stevens at a conference in Germany, once again offering military assets if the ambassador wanted them.  Stevens once again said he did not. 

The attempts, therefore, to destroy the reputation of Hillary Clinton for failing to provide security that might have saved the ambassador and his three colleagues that night at the US mission in Benghazi are demonstrated to be little more than a conjectured smear campaign undertaken for the political pre-emption of a formidable potential campaign rival.  For whatever reason, the ambassador himself turned down additional security assets and decided to go to Benghazi with minimal protection.  He was the person in charge on the ground and made the call.  We can all agree that what followed was a terrible tragedy, costing the lives of four brave Americans.  We also now know that Hillary Rodham Clinton had nothing to do with it. 

  

Hillary Clinton for State?

Last March, after surviving the gauntlet of "Super Tuesday" primaries on February 5 against Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama was in the middle of running off eleven consecutive primary and caucus wins. The lead he amassed that month was his margin of victory; Clinton thereafter was never able to close the gap.

One of the little-noticed things Obama did that month in the midst of a frenetic schedule of appearances was to place a call to an author. Doris Kearns Goodwin, a Pulitzer Prize-winning historian, had written an acclaimed book about the sixteenth president. Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln had received the Lincoln Award as the best book about the Civil War in 2005. Obama had read the book and wanted to garner a few further insights about how Lincoln managed his Cabinet, a Cabinet he had stocked with practically every one of the members of his party who had contested him for the nomination.

Obama's inquiry was not idle chatter. He has already tapped one primary season rival, Joe Biden, for the vice presidency. Reports are now rampant that the job of Secretary of State is Senator Clinton's to accept or turn down. Obama is said to have offered her the post when the two met in Chicago. I believe the reports. The Obama campaign up to now has maintained nearly unprecedented message discipline and no one is denying the reports. Just today former President Bill Clinton said his wife "would make a great Secretary of State."

I tend to concur. She is brilliant. She knows foreign and defense policy backward and forward. She knows and has personal relationships with the world's heads of state and government. Her profile is the highest possible, lending the utmost weight and credibility to her diplomacy with global leaders and efforts to assuage the intricacies of the world's trouble spots. Imagine a visit to Russia, China, India, Saudi Arabia or even North Korea with Hillary Clinton as diplomat in chief. The effect would be electrifying, several orders of magnitude past what would be generated by John Kerry or Bill Richardson. She has a heart but can also famously be as tough as nails. It is easy to picture her as an altogether formidable chief of American foreign policy.

The potential drawbacks are apparent. Might she undermine the president or prove to be an unmanageable subordinate? Are there more Clinton skeletons in the closet that vetting might turn up, particularly with respect to husband Bill's international foundation and its sources of financial support? And speaking of Bill, might he wind up underfoot, in the way, at odds with and a distraction for Obama and his Administration in general?

The answer, of course is that such problems are certainly possible. Given the competence of the Obama operation so far, however, I am inclined to believe they have been anticipated. Obama seems to want strong people around him. His style is to encourage open debate. Then, when he makes a decision, it is final. His approach will be like Lincoln's-to tie the fates of himself and his erstwhile rivals together so that his success is their success and vice versa.

In a remarkable parallel Lincoln tapped New York Senator William Henry Seward, who had been strongly favored to win the Republican nomination in 1860, for his own Secretary of State. Seward began with the apparent idea that he would be the real power of the Lincoln Administration over the thinly-experienced man from Illinois, but before long he considered Lincoln his best friend and he was among the president's firmest supporters. I too have read Goodwin's book and am sure Obama is mining it for insights into leading such a prominent group and maintaining authority. One trait Obama certainly has no shortage of is self-confidence.

For her part, Clinton is, for all her fame, a relatively junior senator. The landmark legislation coming out of Congress under this administration will, for the most part, have the names of long-serving senators such as Dodd, Leahy, Kennedy, Levin, Boxer, and yes, probably McCain attached to it. State presents Clinton with the opportunity to achieve some transcendent objectives, far beyond what she is likely to have under her name in the senate anytime soon.

Consider the kinds of issues the next Secretary of State will tackle. An Israeli-Palestinian settlement, for instance. The successor to the Kyoto climate change treaty. A truly effective global working arrangement on terror. Fixing the horrible African mess. Splitting Syria from Iran. Putting Afghanistan back together. And Iraq. Nuclear proliferation, particularly with respect to Iran and North Korea. Finding the appropriate ongoing relationship with Russia. Encouraging constructive development and evolution in the Islamic world so as to promote justice and drain the swamp that engenders extremism.

Hillary Clinton as Senator has earned high marks for doing her homework, learning the ropes, working across party lines where possible and letting the more senior members enjoy the lion's share of credit when credit is due. I have a hunch that if she becomes Secretary of State she will be a better subordinate than many expect. We will have to wait and see what happens, but keep in mind the Obama team has had a transition operation in place already for at least three months now. Watch what unfolds. Unless I miss my guess, what we are about see leading up to the Inauguration and in the weeks immediately following will be like nothing Americans have witnessed before, except among the very elderly. Fasten your seat belt and get ready to be amazed.

Hillary Unites Convention

Hillary Clinton stepped up to the podium at the Democratic Convention tonight with a singular mission: to unify a party bruised by the long, tough, close primary battle. After she finished, it was difficult to imagine how she could possibly have done a better job making the case for her supporters to get behind Barack Obama. Her speech was not just a home run, it may have been a grand slam.

Clinton set the tone early. When she announced right off the bat she was a "proud supporter of Barack Obama," her husband the ex-president leaped to his feet and applauded from the gallery. She continued, "It is time to take back our country. And whether you voted for me or Barack the time is now to unite as a single party for a single purpose. Barack Obama must be our president."

Hillary went on to ask, "Were you in it just for me? Or were you in it for all the people in this country who feel invisible?" She went through a litany of issues, from health care to crony corporatism to ending the war, drawing a parallel between her causes and Obama's, casting John McCain as a continuation of George W. Bush and anathema to everything Hillary herself and anyone who supported her believes in.

The New York Senator's remarks had a decidedly feminist cast. She didn't give an inch on her qualifications and made frequent references to glass ceilings, Harriet Tubman and the women's rights pioneers of the past-all code for reaching out to women. She then connected her candidacy to Obama's through the issues they share, coming close to handing him the Clinton mantle by declaring, "We Democrats know how to do this. As I recall we did this before under President Clinton!" She then implored the arena and the national audience, "We need to elect Barack Obama for many reasons-this is no time to sit on the sidelines!"

The address was peppered with enough memorable lines and digs at McCain to get a rise out of the Democratic partisans. One example was, "No way, no how, no McCain. Barack Obama is my candidate." Another was, "It makes perfect sense that George Bush and John McCain will be together next week in the Twin Cities, because these days it's awfully hard to tell them apart."

Watching a speech like this, expansive yet with a personal subtext, full of content yet not wonkish, I was once again reminded what a formidable political personage Hillary Clinton is. Her ringing tones and successive points stood in sharp contrast to the parade of other Democratic notables who, though governors, senators and other people of substance, generally paled by comparison. Most of them served up yawners. She was riveting.

After tonight's performance I would imagine that Hillary's female followers who are persuadable will come over. A survey before the vote had Clinton primary voters at 70% for Obama, 20% for McCain and 10% undecided. These numbers should move further Obama's way. While Clinton mentioned a good many lunch bucket issues, the effect on her male working class supporters from this speech will probably be less than on women. I'd expect Obama to gain some, but we won't see a wholesale shift just from this. Joe Biden will be called upon to pry that open tomorrow but it will truly be up to Obama himself to close the deal on Thursday.

As for Hillary Clinton, after this she has set herself up in good shape. Tonight's performance did Barack Obama a lot of good and improved his chances for winning the election. After this, if he loses, she cannot be blamed, and she will have a reservoir of goodwill from the Obama faithful to start with should she have ambitions for 2012. If he wins, her convention performance and the hard campaigning she has been doing and will continue to do on his behalf will enhance her status in the party even more. Even 2016 is not too late for her. That year Hillary Clinton will be three years younger than John McCain is now.

Hillary to the Rescue?

As we waited for Barack Obama's running mate selection, an illuminating NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll was released yesterday. It points out some of the reasons for the tightening race and suggests what Obama needs to do to hold on in the weeks ahead.

In line with most recent surveys it has Obama ahead, but by a shrinking margin. The Democrat is preferred by 3%, 45-42. The NBC/WSJ poll of a month ago had Obama up by 6. One interesting item is the fairly large undecided bloc of 13%. We'll return to that later.

The most striking demographic of Obama's campaign is his appeal to younger voters. Among the 18-34 age group he is the overwhelming pick, 55-38. Among all voters 35 and over John McCain led by a point, 43-42. Obama's challenge will be getting these younger voters to the polls. McCain's will be to increase his standing among the older groups.

As you would expect, Obama has advantages on economic issues and McCain on security-related ones. Both tickets will frequently talk past each other, with Obama firing away on the economy and McCain responding on terrorism. The wild card is George W. Bush. A great danger sign for McCain and opportunity for Obama is the finding that 77% of voters think McCain is likely to follow the unpopular president's policies "closely." If Obama can sear that impression into the voters' minds he will have a heavy advantage. If McCain can distance himself from his support of Bush policies and turn the conversation to defense matters he will be in good shape.

Now back to that 13% bloc of undecided. A full half of them, 6 1/2% of the total electorate, are Democratic supporters of Hillary Clinton who are as of yet witholding their support from Barack Obama. If they were to come off the fence in his favor, all he would have to do would be to hold the current support he has to ensure a 51.5% majority of the vote. How Sen. Clinton handles her delegates at the convention and how she speaks to them on the gathering's second night will prove crucial to the young Illinoisan's prospects on November 4. In an irony of ironies, his fate may be in her hands.

Clinton and Economy Unify Democrats

On Friday the economic news coming out of New York and Washington was unreservedly grim. On Saturday Hillary Clinton urged her supporters to rally behind the banner of Barack Obama and pledged to do all she can to help him win in November. These two developments will do much to unify the Democratic Party in this year's election.

Another surge in oil prices and bad news on employment and inflation combined to spur a huge sell-off on Wall Street and another fall in the value of the dollar. Oil was going for $139 a barrel, an all-time record and up an unprecedented $11 on the day. The official unemployment rate jumped 10% in May, to 5.5%, as 49,000 more jobs were lost. 8.55 million Americans are unemployed and another 5.23 million who want full-time work are working only part-time. The Dow lost over 390 points in Friday's trading.

Clinton incorporated the latest news on the recession into her speech this morning, telling the estimated 10,000 attendees and a national television audience that the country cannot "afford another four years of Republican mismanagement" of the economy. Her strong endorsement of Obama was designed to implore her supporters to come out for the Democratic ticket this fall rather than to harbor disappointment about her defeat in the nomination battle. Her remarks were enthusiastically received.

George W. Bush admitted the figures showed "slow economic growth" but, seemingly out of touch with reality, also said, "We're beginning to see signs that the stimulus may be working." John McCain agreed, stating, "The wrong change for our country would be an economic agenda based upon the policies of the past that advocate higher taxes. To help families at this critical time, we cannot afford to go backward as Senator Obama advocates."

Obama responded by terming the economic news "a reminder that working families continue to bear the brunt of the failed Bush economic policies that John McCain wants to continue. We can't afford John McCain's plan to spend billions of dollars on tax breaks for big corporations and C.E.O.'s."

The primaries showed Clinton to be a proven vote-getter among older women, Hispanics and working-class whites, the very groups Obama had the most difficulty winning over. A recent survey showed Obama already preferred by Hispanics 62% to 29% over McCain. If Clinton's ardent support for Obama can keep these important groups unified for Obama in the fall he must definitely be considered the favorite to win the election.