As we waited for Barack Obama's running mate selection, an illuminating NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll was released yesterday. It points out some of the reasons for the tightening race and suggests what Obama needs to do to hold on in the weeks ahead.
In line with most recent surveys it has Obama ahead, but by a shrinking margin. The Democrat is preferred by 3%, 45-42. The NBC/WSJ poll of a month ago had Obama up by 6. One interesting item is the fairly large undecided bloc of 13%. We'll return to that later.
The most striking demographic of Obama's campaign is his appeal to younger voters. Among the 18-34 age group he is the overwhelming pick, 55-38. Among all voters 35 and over John McCain led by a point, 43-42. Obama's challenge will be getting these younger voters to the polls. McCain's will be to increase his standing among the older groups.
As you would expect, Obama has advantages on economic issues and McCain on security-related ones. Both tickets will frequently talk past each other, with Obama firing away on the economy and McCain responding on terrorism. The wild card is George W. Bush. A great danger sign for McCain and opportunity for Obama is the finding that 77% of voters think McCain is likely to follow the unpopular president's policies "closely." If Obama can sear that impression into the voters' minds he will have a heavy advantage. If McCain can distance himself from his support of Bush policies and turn the conversation to defense matters he will be in good shape.
Now back to that 13% bloc of undecided. A full half of them, 6 1/2% of the total electorate, are Democratic supporters of Hillary Clinton who are as of yet witholding their support from Barack Obama. If they were to come off the fence in his favor, all he would have to do would be to hold the current support he has to ensure a 51.5% majority of the vote. How Sen. Clinton handles her delegates at the convention and how she speaks to them on the gathering's second night will prove crucial to the young Illinoisan's prospects on November 4. In an irony of ironies, his fate may be in her hands.
2 comments:
Steve, I sometimes wonder what we (us working stiffs) look like to politicians. I sometimes think they don't see us and act from a short-sightedness that perhaps years of back-room fighting begets. I'm thinking of Bill Clinton and Al Gore's obvious tension with each other that helped George Bush get elected. There are rabid Hilary fans that could send the election to McCain, I guess. Hope not.
You are right, David, there are a lot of terribly disappointed Hillary supporters. Many of them are older women who wanted to see a woman president in their lifetimes and fear they now may not live to see it. Others are working class men who don't connect with Obama's soaring speeches. I think most of the women can be persuaded to come back if they think Hillary really means it when she urges them at the convention on Tuesday night to vote for Obama. Obama's pick of Biden for VP is a clear effort to go after the working class men.
Regarding Bill Clinton and Al Gore, they worked together extremely well for most of eight years. Gore was given more responsibility, the "Reinventing Government" initiative, than almost any VP in history before him. The difficulty during the 2000 campaign was a result of Clinton's infidelity. That's what made Gore reluctant to use him much in the campaign.
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