Last summer John McCain's campaign was left for dead. Today, after taking the winner-take-all Virginia Primary, along with Maryland and the District of Columbia, he stands on the verge of gaining the Republican nomination for president. The venerable candidate, so short of funds he had to mothball his spacious motor home for a van, and whose senior brain trust had begun fleeing his sinking campaign in droves, will soon eliminate his last remaining serious challenger and lead his party into the general election. It's one of the great political comeback stories in recent memory. How it happened can be summed up in four words: Thompson, Huckabee, Giuliani and time. The great might-have-been is Mitt Romney.
Romney was a formidable candidate. He had good looks and an unbroken record of effectiveness in private business, the Olympic Games and as Governor of Massachusetts. There has never been the slightest hint of personal scandal about him. On top of that he had nearly limitless funds to commit to the race. Romney crafted a winning strategy against the projected field. He would run to the right of McCain and Rudy Giuliani and slightly to the left of Bible Belt social conservatives Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee. McCain and Giuliani would split the moderate vote to his left. Thompson and Huckabee would split the conservative vote to his right. Romney would have the 35% of moderate conservatives in the middle all to himself while the other four came in at 15% each. Ron Paul and arch-conservatives Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo would siphon up the rest. It was a good strategy. Then everything fell apart for him and into the waiting arms of John McCain.
McCain's first break came with the entry of Fred Thompson into the contest, if it can be characterized as such. After waiting so long to get in that much of the early enthusiasm for drafting him had dissipated, Thompson proved an absolute flop on the campaign trail. With his lackluster performances and paucity of message he could have been dubbed the Sominex candidate.
This opened the door for Huckabee. With no competition for the social conservative vote, Huckabee quickly gobbled up the lion's share of it and won the opening round at the Iowa caucuses. Speaking like the affable Baptist preacher he once was, Huckabee could relate to born-agains in the images and terminologies they knew and loved. He not only absorbed the predicted Thompson vote but ate into Romney's right flank. Romney began repositioning himself as a true dyed-in-the-wool conservative to fend off this encroachment.
McCain's next break was the implosion of Rudy Giuliani. Leading in national polls into early December, Giuliani's support proved to be of the "mile wide and inch deep" variety. Though hurt by allegations of spending city funds for the security of his then-mistress, Giuliani's difficulty was more basic than that. His real problem was that the more voters saw him the less they liked him. The abrasive New Yorker seemed to rub everybody the wrong way. His numbers dropped faster than a Buffalo thermometer in January. With no competition for the moderate vote, McCain grabbed Rudy's will o' the wisp adherents. With Romney's fire directed now at Huckabee, McCain began making unopposed inroads into Romney's left flank as well. McCain won the New Hampshire Primary. Romney was now trapped between the unified left and right wings of the party. Faced with a Faustian choice, he decided to take out the upstart preacher first and go after McCain once that was done. He never got the chance. Huckabee's bloc had solidified and could not be budged. Once Romney's moderate support began defecting to McCain he went after the Arizonan, but by then it was too late. On Super Tuesday Huckabee ran wild in the South and McCain swept California and the big states of the Northeast. Romney's success in Massachusetts and the Mountain West wasn't enough. He was done.
McCain's last ally was time. Enough of it had elapsed to take the sting out of some of the pre-campaign positions he had taken that rankled conservatives. Conservative anger based on his voting against the Bush tax cuts, supporting McCain-Kennedy-Bush immigration reform and McCain-Feingold campaign reform had receded just enough that Huckabee couldn't stop him far from the South. Enough of it had elapsed to make his support for the Iraq surge seem providential to most Republicans. And too little of it remained for the cash-strapped Huckabee to overcome the delegate lead McCain had amassed in his big winner-take all victories.
Thus reads the remarkable story of John McCain's improbable march to the nomination in 2008. He may go on to make history as the oldest president elected to a first term. But whether or not he does he has already made history in a primary season the like of which may not be seen again.
Showing posts with label Mike Huckabee. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mike Huckabee. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Saturday, February 9, 2008
February 9 Primaries
Barack Obama continued his dominance of caucus and heavily African-American states and Mike Huckabee continued to demonstrate the vitality of his appeal in today's primary contests. As a result, the Democratic race becomes ever tighter and the Republican contest will last a little longer.
On the Democratic side, Obama won three states he needed to win. He ran up better than two to one margins in caucuses in Nebraska and Washington and took the Louisiana primary 57-36% over Hillary Clinton. Estimates give Obama 69 pledged delegates from today's voting and Clinton 40. Obama's campaign predicts he will increase his total to over 100 once final allotments are made. According to CNN's count which includes Superdelegates, Clinton currently leads the delegate race 1100 to 1039. Obama stands a good chance to pull ahead on Tuesday the 12th when Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia will decide nearly 200 delegates. Obama is favored in all three contests. Sunday's Maine caucus, where Clinton is thought to have a chance, has only 34 delegates at stake.
Among the Republicans, Huckabee surged to a 60-24% pasting of John McCain in caucuses in Kansas. Ron Paul garnered 11%. Huckabee will get all 36 delegates from Kansas. Huckabee also outpolled McCain in Louisiana primary voting 43-42%, but a complicated procedure will now come into play to award the state's delegates since no one got 50% of the votes. Returns from Nebraska are very slow in coming in and show Huckabee and McCain running neck and neck, with Paul getting a surprising 21%. It's clear social conservatives are less than happy with the prospect of McCain as the Republican nominee. Even so, number crunchers have demonstrated that were Huckabee to win every state that is yet to vote by an average of 10% McCain would still get to the magic number of 1191 delegates needed to secure the nomination due to the proportional awarding of delegates in most states.
And now a word about the Democratic race's format. With today's victories in Nebraska and Washington Obama is 10-1 in caucus states. He is also 4-0 in states in which African-Americans make up one-third or more of the Democratic electorate. He is 4-12 in all other states, and one of those four wins came in his home state of Illinois. What explains this disparity?
First, most people don't realize how many fewer voters go to caucuses than traditional voting polls. Today, for example, over 350,000 votes were cast in Louisiana while only some 32,000 caucused in Washington, this despite the populations of the two states being roughly equal. The Kansas Republican caucus decided that state's convention delegation based on the votes of barely 18,000 people. Because a caucus requires a voter to be at the caucus at a particular time of day and commit to spending perhaps three hours going through the process, it gives an advantage to the candidate whose supporters are the most enthusiastic. Obama's certainly appear to be so.
Second, it also gives an advantage to those of greater means and independence. This includes those who can arrange child care or don't have children, or don't have to work, for instance. Since Obama's backers include higher proportions of those who are better off (can get out of work or afford to arrange for child care) and who are younger (often who don't have children or are students who do not work) this gives more of his backers an opportunity to attend. Surveys indicate Clinton appeals more to working class voters who are more likely to have child care issues and who are generally less able to get out of work to go to a caucus. Clinton also has more support among senior citizens, and the prospect of securing transportation and sitting through such a long meeting is likely daunting to many of them.
Third, it puts a great premium on a campaign's ground organization, and in this the Obama campaign has by all accounts excelled.
In my view caucuses should be abandoned. A system that defines a single time of day when voters must vote unduly restricts the electorate. A system that subjects the voters to a process that takes hours also restricts the electorate. A process that requires voters to publicly declare their vote instead of using the secret ballot not only resticts the electorate but subjects those who attend to social pressure. Finally, the turnout totals show just how far caucuses depress voting. It is far better to make voting as easy as possible for the greatest number of people, and to open the voting up to the 50% who will go to the reasonable trouble to cast a ballot rather than just the 5% of committed activists and people of means and leisure who will go to a caucus.
On the Democratic side, Obama won three states he needed to win. He ran up better than two to one margins in caucuses in Nebraska and Washington and took the Louisiana primary 57-36% over Hillary Clinton. Estimates give Obama 69 pledged delegates from today's voting and Clinton 40. Obama's campaign predicts he will increase his total to over 100 once final allotments are made. According to CNN's count which includes Superdelegates, Clinton currently leads the delegate race 1100 to 1039. Obama stands a good chance to pull ahead on Tuesday the 12th when Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia will decide nearly 200 delegates. Obama is favored in all three contests. Sunday's Maine caucus, where Clinton is thought to have a chance, has only 34 delegates at stake.
Among the Republicans, Huckabee surged to a 60-24% pasting of John McCain in caucuses in Kansas. Ron Paul garnered 11%. Huckabee will get all 36 delegates from Kansas. Huckabee also outpolled McCain in Louisiana primary voting 43-42%, but a complicated procedure will now come into play to award the state's delegates since no one got 50% of the votes. Returns from Nebraska are very slow in coming in and show Huckabee and McCain running neck and neck, with Paul getting a surprising 21%. It's clear social conservatives are less than happy with the prospect of McCain as the Republican nominee. Even so, number crunchers have demonstrated that were Huckabee to win every state that is yet to vote by an average of 10% McCain would still get to the magic number of 1191 delegates needed to secure the nomination due to the proportional awarding of delegates in most states.
And now a word about the Democratic race's format. With today's victories in Nebraska and Washington Obama is 10-1 in caucus states. He is also 4-0 in states in which African-Americans make up one-third or more of the Democratic electorate. He is 4-12 in all other states, and one of those four wins came in his home state of Illinois. What explains this disparity?
First, most people don't realize how many fewer voters go to caucuses than traditional voting polls. Today, for example, over 350,000 votes were cast in Louisiana while only some 32,000 caucused in Washington, this despite the populations of the two states being roughly equal. The Kansas Republican caucus decided that state's convention delegation based on the votes of barely 18,000 people. Because a caucus requires a voter to be at the caucus at a particular time of day and commit to spending perhaps three hours going through the process, it gives an advantage to the candidate whose supporters are the most enthusiastic. Obama's certainly appear to be so.
Second, it also gives an advantage to those of greater means and independence. This includes those who can arrange child care or don't have children, or don't have to work, for instance. Since Obama's backers include higher proportions of those who are better off (can get out of work or afford to arrange for child care) and who are younger (often who don't have children or are students who do not work) this gives more of his backers an opportunity to attend. Surveys indicate Clinton appeals more to working class voters who are more likely to have child care issues and who are generally less able to get out of work to go to a caucus. Clinton also has more support among senior citizens, and the prospect of securing transportation and sitting through such a long meeting is likely daunting to many of them.
Third, it puts a great premium on a campaign's ground organization, and in this the Obama campaign has by all accounts excelled.
In my view caucuses should be abandoned. A system that defines a single time of day when voters must vote unduly restricts the electorate. A system that subjects the voters to a process that takes hours also restricts the electorate. A process that requires voters to publicly declare their vote instead of using the secret ballot not only resticts the electorate but subjects those who attend to social pressure. Finally, the turnout totals show just how far caucuses depress voting. It is far better to make voting as easy as possible for the greatest number of people, and to open the voting up to the 50% who will go to the reasonable trouble to cast a ballot rather than just the 5% of committed activists and people of means and leisure who will go to a caucus.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Romney Out; What's With Huckabee?
As predicted here on January 30, Mitt Romney failed to sufficiently slow the McCain train and bowed out two days after Super Tuesday. Romney is to be commended for bowing to the inevitable; he would have needed 88% of the remaining Republican delegates to win the nomination, an impossibility in practical terms against two opponents.
The larger question now becomes why Mike Huckabee is staying in. Huckabee's odds are even longer. He would need to claim 93% of all yet to be determined Republican delegates to be crowned the party's standard bearer at the convention in St. Paul. While it's true he faces only one major opponent (apologies to Ron Paul), that's a practical impossibility too. So what is he up to?
Well, for one thing he's certainly campaigning in earnest. Today he began an extensive trek through Kansas and he's expected to go next to Virginia and do the same thing. Huckabee is also basking in today's endorsement by Focus on the Family founder and Christian conservative icon Dr. James Dobson. Does Huck really think he can still win the nomination?
No, he's far too smart for that. You don't win six statewide elections in a swing state without being able to read the electoral math. He knows very well he has no chance. Instead, two things are most likely on his mind: pushing McCain to the right and just maybe setting himself up as running mate.
By challenging McCain in socially conservative states Huckabee is trying to impress the Arizonan with the need to tack to the right instead of back to the center as usually happens in a general election campaign. If Huckabee can win in such states or lose closely enough to embarass the presumptive nominee, he hopes to force McCain to adhere to the positions the political and social right holds dear. "Don't take the base for granted" is the message. Many prominent right wing print and radio pundits are incensed at McCain's success and predict doom. "John McCain as the nominee would be the destruction of the Republican Party!" bloviates Rush Limbaugh. At the Conservative Political Action Conference today McCain was met with boos and jeers when he brought up the subject of immigration. So part of Huckabee's staying in is to try to force McCain to take conservative positions he won't be able to abandon if he wins the White House.
The other message in Huckabee's decision to continue is revealingly set forth by his own statement, "I've proven I can win in the South. A Republican who can't win in the South won't be president." Implicit in Huckabee's quote is that if he continues to prove McCain is weak with the base then that shows McCain needs help there-and Huckabee is the one who can deliver that help. Mike Huckabee knows full well he won't be the nominee. But he's left his calling card on John McCain's doorstep.
The larger question now becomes why Mike Huckabee is staying in. Huckabee's odds are even longer. He would need to claim 93% of all yet to be determined Republican delegates to be crowned the party's standard bearer at the convention in St. Paul. While it's true he faces only one major opponent (apologies to Ron Paul), that's a practical impossibility too. So what is he up to?
Well, for one thing he's certainly campaigning in earnest. Today he began an extensive trek through Kansas and he's expected to go next to Virginia and do the same thing. Huckabee is also basking in today's endorsement by Focus on the Family founder and Christian conservative icon Dr. James Dobson. Does Huck really think he can still win the nomination?
No, he's far too smart for that. You don't win six statewide elections in a swing state without being able to read the electoral math. He knows very well he has no chance. Instead, two things are most likely on his mind: pushing McCain to the right and just maybe setting himself up as running mate.
By challenging McCain in socially conservative states Huckabee is trying to impress the Arizonan with the need to tack to the right instead of back to the center as usually happens in a general election campaign. If Huckabee can win in such states or lose closely enough to embarass the presumptive nominee, he hopes to force McCain to adhere to the positions the political and social right holds dear. "Don't take the base for granted" is the message. Many prominent right wing print and radio pundits are incensed at McCain's success and predict doom. "John McCain as the nominee would be the destruction of the Republican Party!" bloviates Rush Limbaugh. At the Conservative Political Action Conference today McCain was met with boos and jeers when he brought up the subject of immigration. So part of Huckabee's staying in is to try to force McCain to take conservative positions he won't be able to abandon if he wins the White House.
The other message in Huckabee's decision to continue is revealingly set forth by his own statement, "I've proven I can win in the South. A Republican who can't win in the South won't be president." Implicit in Huckabee's quote is that if he continues to prove McCain is weak with the base then that shows McCain needs help there-and Huckabee is the one who can deliver that help. Mike Huckabee knows full well he won't be the nominee. But he's left his calling card on John McCain's doorstep.
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Huckabee In 08!
It's nice to see the current upswing for Gov. Mike Huckabee, a Christian Leader. That's the kind of guy we need. It was gratifying to see him on the TV news at Liberty University where he said the same power that allowed a boy to feed the multitude with five loaves and two fishes is also what is responsible for his moving up in the political polls. He said it was amusing to him that all the smart pundits couldn't grasp the reason behind his improving fortunes. As the Good Book says, if the Lord is for him, who can be against him?
This got me so excited I went to his website and read up on how he stands on all the issues. It is good to see that like any true Christian he is very pro-military. He will increase the defense budget by 70%. He will also protect us from terrorists by staying in Iraq until we win. Another way he is like Jesus is in standing strong against poor immigrants. No amnesty for them! They will have to register within 120 days and be deported, but if they stay and get caught they will be deported then. That's the kind of incentive that will make them come forward for sure. He will also protect us from homosexuals by not letting them marry each other. He must figure that will keep them from multiplying.
He also has great plans to fix the health care and energy crises by relying on market solutions. We can be certain that, inspired by his example of Christian charity, insurers and HMOs will provide coverage to the sickly and indigent and oil and auto companies will suck it up and do what is best for the environment and energy independence. He will accomplish these by using "the bully pulpit" and "the bully conference table," certainly tactics that no industry will be able to resist. You can see he has a gift for lasering in on the heart of a matter and coming up with novel and incisive solutions.
But I've saved the best for last. Like any good Christian, Mike hates taxes and the IRS. He will abolish the IRS! A sales tax will be the only federal tax. Naysayers will charge it with being regressive, but Mike anticipated that and has named it the "Fair Tax." Is he brilliant, or what? It will only be assessed on new goods, so if you buy used stuff you won't have to pay any taxes at all! We can count on doubting Thomases to question how he will be able to pay for a $300 billion defense increase and a $200 billion war while relying only on a high sales tax that will give people a powerful disincentive to buy anything. Ha! Not to worry. His website explains that it will "act like a magic wand." If there is anything we could use right now in these trying times it is a magic wand.
It is easy to see why Huckabee is taking off among Republican voters. His Christian morality, magical economics and the fact that the Lord has now taken charge of the opinion polls makes his candidacy irresistable. Huckabee in '08!
This got me so excited I went to his website and read up on how he stands on all the issues. It is good to see that like any true Christian he is very pro-military. He will increase the defense budget by 70%. He will also protect us from terrorists by staying in Iraq until we win. Another way he is like Jesus is in standing strong against poor immigrants. No amnesty for them! They will have to register within 120 days and be deported, but if they stay and get caught they will be deported then. That's the kind of incentive that will make them come forward for sure. He will also protect us from homosexuals by not letting them marry each other. He must figure that will keep them from multiplying.
He also has great plans to fix the health care and energy crises by relying on market solutions. We can be certain that, inspired by his example of Christian charity, insurers and HMOs will provide coverage to the sickly and indigent and oil and auto companies will suck it up and do what is best for the environment and energy independence. He will accomplish these by using "the bully pulpit" and "the bully conference table," certainly tactics that no industry will be able to resist. You can see he has a gift for lasering in on the heart of a matter and coming up with novel and incisive solutions.
But I've saved the best for last. Like any good Christian, Mike hates taxes and the IRS. He will abolish the IRS! A sales tax will be the only federal tax. Naysayers will charge it with being regressive, but Mike anticipated that and has named it the "Fair Tax." Is he brilliant, or what? It will only be assessed on new goods, so if you buy used stuff you won't have to pay any taxes at all! We can count on doubting Thomases to question how he will be able to pay for a $300 billion defense increase and a $200 billion war while relying only on a high sales tax that will give people a powerful disincentive to buy anything. Ha! Not to worry. His website explains that it will "act like a magic wand." If there is anything we could use right now in these trying times it is a magic wand.
It is easy to see why Huckabee is taking off among Republican voters. His Christian morality, magical economics and the fact that the Lord has now taken charge of the opinion polls makes his candidacy irresistable. Huckabee in '08!
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