As predicted here on January 30, Mitt Romney failed to sufficiently slow the McCain train and bowed out two days after Super Tuesday. Romney is to be commended for bowing to the inevitable; he would have needed 88% of the remaining Republican delegates to win the nomination, an impossibility in practical terms against two opponents.
The larger question now becomes why Mike Huckabee is staying in. Huckabee's odds are even longer. He would need to claim 93% of all yet to be determined Republican delegates to be crowned the party's standard bearer at the convention in St. Paul. While it's true he faces only one major opponent (apologies to Ron Paul), that's a practical impossibility too. So what is he up to?
Well, for one thing he's certainly campaigning in earnest. Today he began an extensive trek through Kansas and he's expected to go next to Virginia and do the same thing. Huckabee is also basking in today's endorsement by Focus on the Family founder and Christian conservative icon Dr. James Dobson. Does Huck really think he can still win the nomination?
No, he's far too smart for that. You don't win six statewide elections in a swing state without being able to read the electoral math. He knows very well he has no chance. Instead, two things are most likely on his mind: pushing McCain to the right and just maybe setting himself up as running mate.
By challenging McCain in socially conservative states Huckabee is trying to impress the Arizonan with the need to tack to the right instead of back to the center as usually happens in a general election campaign. If Huckabee can win in such states or lose closely enough to embarass the presumptive nominee, he hopes to force McCain to adhere to the positions the political and social right holds dear. "Don't take the base for granted" is the message. Many prominent right wing print and radio pundits are incensed at McCain's success and predict doom. "John McCain as the nominee would be the destruction of the Republican Party!" bloviates Rush Limbaugh. At the Conservative Political Action Conference today McCain was met with boos and jeers when he brought up the subject of immigration. So part of Huckabee's staying in is to try to force McCain to take conservative positions he won't be able to abandon if he wins the White House.
The other message in Huckabee's decision to continue is revealingly set forth by his own statement, "I've proven I can win in the South. A Republican who can't win in the South won't be president." Implicit in Huckabee's quote is that if he continues to prove McCain is weak with the base then that shows McCain needs help there-and Huckabee is the one who can deliver that help. Mike Huckabee knows full well he won't be the nominee. But he's left his calling card on John McCain's doorstep.
2 comments:
What I found interesting with Romney's message this week, was how he said it. A suspended campaign? That indicates that he might revive the candidacy down the road.
Very observant. Here's the skinny. By only "suspending" the campaign that means Romney is NOT releasing his pledged delegates from their commitments to vote for him on the first ballot. So if somehow Huckabee starts beating McCain Romney can get back in. Or maybe if the septagenarian has a health problem...the door is open.
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