February 5 fast approaches, with great stakes riding for the two remaining Democratic contenders. Last night's debate, bathed primarily (sorry, couldn't resist that one) in good fellowship between Senators Obama and Clinton, had to come as a relief for party loyalists. The respective campaigns avoided the scorched earth tactics of South Carolina which threatened to drag down the general election prospects of whichever candidate gains the nomination. Both directed their main salvoes at the Republicans. It's clear both senators concluded they like where they are in the race and had a lot to lose by going negative. Clinton figured she can hang on to what remains of her lead and Obama determined he can rely on his momentum to carry him over the top. It was no time to upset the apple cart. So where do things stand on the verge of Super Tuesday?
Obama currently has 63 delegates committed to him. Clinton has 48. John Edwards has 26. There will be 4049 delegates at the convention, with 2025 needed for the nomination. Clinton appears to have reasonable leads in seven February 5 states with a total of 1149 delegates. Obama looks to have the upper hand in eight states with 539 delegates. Another seven states with 376 delegates could go either way. The Democrats have no "winner take all" states; everything will be allotted proportionally or by formulas determined by the vote in each congressional district. So it's unlikely anyone will be able to deliver a knockout blow in the delegate count. That may be a different story in terms of expectations, especially if Obama loses closely in Clinton states and wins the majority of the smaller tossup states. She needs to come away with a delegate majority on Tuesday or her campaign will be perceived to be in free fall.
Clinton Strongholds: Fortunately for her, Hillary Clinton leads in most of the larger states. New York (281), Massachusetts (121) and New Jersey (127) will report early. Clinton should roll in all three. If not she is in deep trouble. Tennessee (85) should come in next. It's one of the few places where she appears to be widening her lead, probably because of the absence of John Edwards. Arkansas (47) and Oklahoma (47) look solid next. Finally comes the big prize of California (441). Hillary is devoting 2 1/2 days here, a signal of how important it is to her electoral math. It may also be evidence of what I see on the ground: Obama is gaining. It may just be possible for him to pull an upset in the Golden State. Don't be surprised if it happens. And if it does it will be a body blow to her prospects for the later contests. California has been a Clinton bastion since 1992, and cracks in support here may portend imminent implosion the longer the campaign goes on.
Obama Strongholds: Obama is surging in Georgia (103) and Alabama (60). They should be declared early for him, providing some good news to offset the expected Clinton triumphs in the Northeast. His next solid win should be in Illinois (185), and it will come by an annihilating majority. Minnesota (88) will soon follow, and North Dakota (23), Kansas (41) and Idaho will go into his column as the polls close farther west. Alaska (18) will chime in after most folks in the East have gone to bed. Clinton will win more big states, but Obama ought to take more of his wins by larger margins.
Tossups: Look for Connecticut (60) as an early bellweather. Obama has closed quickly here and may already have the edge. If he loses it may indicate things are going according to the Clinton game plan. I think he'll win it. Delaware (23) is anybody's guess. Next watch Missouri (88). That's unpredictable due to uncertainty over what Edwards' numerous former supporters will do. Colorado (71) appears trending for Barack. Finally will come the Mountain West states of Utah (29), New Mexico (38) and Arizona (67). Obama is making a concerted effort to court Native Americans in Arizona and New Mexico to offset Clinton's expected strength among Hispanics there.
All in all, Clinton's strategy is more concentrated, trying to run up delegates in the large population states where her support is strongest. And make no mistake, she will have to win the majority of delegates or the air will go out of her campaign. Obama's strategy is more spread out. He will try to win a larger number of states, especially "purple" states, which will help him in the electability argument for the next round. With 2064 delegates in play, over 40% of the entire convention, the result will be enormous. But given the Democratic Party's proportionality rules it's not likely either will win more than 1250 of these. The mathematical race for delegates will not be decided February 5, though a strong showing by either could place him or her in the presumptive victor role now enjoyed by John McCain on the Republican side.
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