The presidential races are clarifying for both parties. John McCain is now odds on for the Republican nod, and Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are the two left standing for what could be a cliffhanger for the Democratic mantle.
On the Republican side it appears the party establishment has wisely chosen electability over purity. While ideologues like Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh and George Will still excoriate McCain for his past apostasies on immigration and taxes, a growing army of officials are coalescing around the Arizona Senator. He indeed is more moderate than Huckabee and Romney in some respects, and his appeal to independents makes him a better choice in November of a year in which the populace appears leaning a bit leftward.
Mike Huckabee's continued presence in the race helps McCain and hurts Romney, for his popularity with doctrinaire conservatives keeps such voters from jumping to Romney against a man whose conservative credentials they have never completely trusted. Looking at the 21 states up for grabs in six days, only a miracle will avert a near-landslide McCain triumph. He won't have the delegates in hand to clinch, but he will be close enough to place the nomination in easy reach and force Romney's withdrawal to avoid further embarrassment. Eight years later, McCain will finally savor his vindication, and the Republicans will at last begin rectifying the terrible mistake they inflicted on the nation in 2000.
As for the Democrats, Clinton still enjoys the national lead and has enormous institutional strengths, but Obama is closing on her. Obama has collected some important endorsements lately, most particularly that of Ted Kennedy. As part of her earlier inevitability strategy Clinton frontloaded most of her endorsements, and one announcement after another for Obama in recent days has contributed to an aura of momentum for the Illinois senator.
The withdrawal of John Edwards from the race will have a strong impact, but it will vary from state to state in Tuesday's 22-state Democratic marathon. It appears his former supporters in the South may trend to Clinton but in the West to Obama. Keep in mind that heavy voting by mail is already ongoing and will likely break for Clinton since a good deal of it went in before Obama's recent upswing.
Tomorrow's debate ought to prove crucial for many undecideds. The two candidates finally have each other where they want them: a one on one without distractions. Clinton has been looking forward to this eagerly. She feels she can cement her credentials based on her encyclopedic policy knowledge and show Obama to be a relative lightweight. Obama will try to deliver enough specifics to blunt her wonk offensive while outshining Clinton in the vision and inspiration departments. Going negative is playing with fire for both at this point, but Clinton will need to draw a contrast on experience once again and Obama will need to question some of Clinton's record and paint her as captive to the past. The hard part for both of them will be to make these points without seeming unkind enough to inspire backlash.
As for February 5, practically anything can happen in this race. Either could score a fairly decisive win or it could be pretty evenly split. As of today Clinton would have the edge but I'll be watching the latest surveys carefully to see whether Obama's improving picture looks like it will be enough to carry him over the top.
2 comments:
It's really too bad that John Edwards pulled out so close to the February Super Tuesday Primary. He had the chance to possibly be a real power broker at the Democratic convention.
Quite true, especially if Obama and Clinton finish close in delegates. As it is, notice how both frontrunners are paying homage to him and trying to identify with his issues. They want his endorsement. Edwards may not be able to play kingmaker at the convention but he is getting the other two to pledge fealty to some of his principles, something he can try to hold them to as the primary and general campaigns go forward. Pretty good politicking for the son of a North Carolina mill worker.
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