South Carolina and Beyond

Barack Obama rolled to a landslide win in today's South Carolina Democratic primary, garnering 55% of the vote to 27% for Hillary Clinton and 18% for John Edwards. Obama scooped up 25 convention delegates while Clinton added 12 and Edwards got 8. The overall delegate count now stands at 249 for Clinton, 167 for Obama and 58 for Edwards. The win was essential for Obama's campaign; a loss in a state where more than 50% of the Democratic voters are black would have boded seriously ill for the Illinois senator.

Instead, his victory re-establishes his momentum and could serve as a bridge to the 22 critical Super Tuesday contests on February 5, only ten days away. But enthusiasm in the Obama ranks should not blind them to the reality that they still face an uphill task in the week and a half ahead. Obama appears to be running behind in all the major Super Tuesday states except his own Illinois. That will have to change dramatically for him to win the nomination.

We know we can't completely trust polls after Clinton's surprise win in New Hampshire or Obama nearly doubling his expected margin of victory in South Carolina but we can't completely ignore them either. An average of several surveys shows Clinton up by 12 in California and 18 in New Jersey. Single recent polls have her ahead by 26 in New York, 37 in Massachusetts, 6 in Georgia, 13 in Missouri, 14 in Tennessee, 10 in Arizona and 15 in Alabama. The most recent head count in Illinois has Obama up by 29 on his home turf, so at least that looks safe for him, and Georgia appears pretty gettable. But the rest might be very tough, and he must win several of them. Can he do it?

Here's why he can. First, Obama is the "hope" candidate, and his South Carolina romp restores that in a big way. Polls before Iowa actually showed Clinton ahead among South Carolina blacks. His Iowa win turned that around. Once people came to believe he really had a chance, supporters flocked to him. Exit polls indicate Obama took the African-American vote 81-17 in the Palmetto State. Second, he has demonstrated an ability to appeal beyond just African-Americans. He ran equal to Clinton among South Carolina white men, for instance, and he won Iowa which is 93% white. Third, he delivered one of his patented scintillating speeches in claiming victory tonight while Clinton was in a Tennessee town hall meeting with so little of interest to say that the networks cut away. The contrast couldn't have done her much good. In his concession speech, John Edwards made a rousing case for continuing to fight for his issues. Why Clinton didn't take advantage of the free air time to do likewise is baffling. Fourth, with Edwards' prospects waning, where will his partisans go? Some will no doubt remain loyal, but a good case can be made that many will defect to one of the leaders, and that Obama will get the lion's share of these. Fifth, he can match Clinton dollar for dollar in the money battle.

Here's why he can't. First, momentum has been an overrated commodity this primary season. Obama seemed to have it after Iowa but couldn't translate that into victory in New Hampshire or Nevada. McCain looked like he had it after New Hampshire but couldn't stop Romney in Michigan. Second, blacks make up only 11% of the population in the Super Tuesday states. Hispanics comprise nearly 14%, and if Nevada is any indication most of these will vote for Clinton. Third, Clinton leads nationally by 9% but by 19% among whites. Obama has to whittle that number down considerably and he doesn't have much time to do it. Fourth, the longer Edwards stays in, and he says it's all the way to the convention, Obama will be denied the opportunity to get the full benefit of those of his supporters who are anti-Hillary. Besides, even if all the Edwards voters in California, New York, Masachusetts and New Jersey switched to Obama it wouldn't be enough by itself to give him the lead in those states. Fifth, if Obama can match Clinton in dollars, then so can she match him. As the candidate trying to come from behind, it would really help him to have the advantage rather than just parity.

So which will it be? I tend to think he probably won't quite make it. Watch the crowd attendance and the polls over the next few days. He needs to show a bounce. If he shaves his national deficit from 9% to 5 right away then his chances are starting to look good. If he only picks up one or two points then he's likely to fall short. The stakes are high for the Democrats in November, since Obama does better in head to head polls against both McCain and Romney than Clinton does.