I'd call tonight's back-to-back Republican and Democratic debates in New Hampshire the "Take Down Debates." The majority in each debate seemed intent on crippling one candidate in particular. The Republicans went after Mitt Romney and the Democrats went after Hillary Clinton.
It's clear the Republican field is most afraid of Romney. His money gives him staying power and the organizational prowess his money provides is good at turning out the voters who support him. It's apparent his opponents would like to get him out of the way to help level the playing field, and they spent a lot of time directing shots his way. If they are successful we could see a regional split among the Republican candidates, with Thompson and Huckabee going head to head in the South and Giuliani and McCain squaring off in the North. We'll see on Tuesday how effective they were at whittling him down to size. If Romney fails to win New Hampshire after failing to win Iowa it will be a blow to his legitimacy. Just keep in mind his resources will allow him to continue the campaign as long as he likes. If no one emerges as the leader, Romney's ace in the hole is his popularity with the GOP establishment, its wealthy movers and shakers with whom he fits in quite well.
On the Democratic side, both Obama and Edwards seem to have identified Clinton as the main enemy and at times acted almost like a tag team against her. The wild card in this was Edwards. He could have decided to undermine Obama as the current holder of momentum. Instead he went after Clinton even harder than Obama did. He seems to have determined she is the most vulnerable after Iowa and by crippling her would like to set up a one on one versus Obama. This is a pretty risky strategy for him and indicates a measure of desperation in his position. If Obama wins New Hampshire big he may be awfully tough to stop, certainly by Edwards. Clinton's nationwide lead will likely begin to erode badly if she finishes third on Tuesday. But if she squeezes out a victory it's quite a race again. Both Clinton and Obama have the organizational and financial resources to go the distance. Edwards needs some good news to set up a few wins on Super Tuesday, February 5. His appeal is a populist one directed to the middle and lower middle class. It could be he's hoping to clean up in the South, but the Democratic vote there is heavily African American. Or it could be he hopes to capitalize on economic disaffection in the Rust Belt. The Clinton organization is strong there, so its neutralization might give him his only chance. Either way, he's really in a box.
2 comments:
Squeezing out a victory in New Hampshire for Clinton might seem like a long shot now. The latest CNN poll has Obama opening up a double digit lead on Clinton in the Granite State. This race is getting more interesting by the minute. But then again, we all know how far we can trust polls. Ask Thomas Dewey.
Very true. There seems to be a growing groundswell for Obama. If he wins there by a wide margin Clinton could emerge mortally wounded. I'm not sure about that making the race more interesting, unless you're referring to the general election. He might steamroll his way to the Democratic nomination in a walk. We'll see what happens Tuesday night. As far as polls go, usually they are pretty accurate. But not always, as you point out.
Post a Comment