Cal Voters for Obamacare; Back Increasing Tobacco Tax and Wages

A new Field Poll released this week sheds some interesting light on California's progressive attitudes regarding health care. It finds strong and growing support for the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), and for expanding Medi-Cal health services to the state's undocumented residents. An expanded Field Poll release also shows registered voters in the Golden State overwhelmingly in favor of an initiative proposal to raise the cigarette tax by $2 a pack to provide more money for health care. The same survey finds even higher support for a hefty increase in the state's minimum wage. The independent, non-partisan Field Poll, established by Mervin Field in 1947 as the California Poll, has long been the most accurate ongoing assessment of political opinion in California.  

The Affordable Care Act is growing in popularity in California. 62% say they favor the law, and only 33% oppose it. The survey found that "Opinions about this cross party lines, and include not only large majorities of Democrats and no party preference voters, but a plurality of Republicans as well." This is likely based on an even stronger favorable perception of the ACA's implementation here, as Covered California. "More than two in three voters (68%) believe that the state's implementation of the ACA in California been successful, while just 20% believe it has not."

The Medi-Cal question found that 58% of registered voters agreed with covering undocumented immigrants not eligible for ACA, against 39% opposed. Last year's numbers were 51% to 45%, evidencing that the humanitarian progressive bent in California opinion is gathering strength.

In May health and labor groups introduced an initiative to hike cigarette taxes by $2 a pack and use the expected $1.5 billion in new revenue to increase reimbursement rates and expand coverage to more people for Medi-Cal. The SEIU union, California Medical Association, California Dental Association and American Cancer Society have thus far raised $2 million to advance the measure.  Field Poll found California voters backing the idea 67% to 30%, with 50% of all voters saying they "strongly favor" the increase. Another 17% say the "somewhat favor" the higher tax. California presently taxes cigarettes 87 cents a pack, a lower rate than 30 other states.

The California minimum wage was raised legislatively from $8 to $9 on July 1, 2014 and will go up to $10 on January 1, 2016. The new proposal would hike it by an additional $1 an hour every year for the next five years, to $15 an hour by 2021. State voters strongly approve, 68% to 30%.

If California goes ahead and implements these ideas it will provide an interesting large-scale test case for the nation as a whole. Here's hoping they all pass.    

How Will Court Rule on Marriage Equality and Obamacare?

Business Insider ran a story on the two pressing Supreme Court cases still to be announced this session. The first case will rule whether states can refuse to marry same-sex couples. The second, King v. Burwell, will decide whether the U.S. government can continue to pay subsidies to people for Obamacare if they live in a state that has not set up its own health care exchange. If they so rule, it will largely wreck Obamacare in 36 states. You can see the article here.

In it, Carter Phillips, an attorney who has argued 80 cases before the high court, predicts the court will rule in favor of same-sex marriage. He says, "I think it could be more than 5-4 because I think the justices will figure out the way the winds of history are blowing and will not be keen on seeing their individual legacies tarnished by having hopelessly attempted to block the protection of rights." 

He rates the Obamacare case a tossup, based on the questioning of the justices at the hearing. All four liberal justices seemed to strongly affirm an interpretation of the wording that permits the subsidies to continue, even if the exchange has not been "established by the state." In Phillips's view, the questions and comments from the bench of only three conservative justices indicate implacable opposition to the subsidies. Two others, Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy, appeared undecided and could go either way. "The four liberals were very aggressive at the oral argument and only three of the conservatives were," Phillips said. "So if Obama could pick off either the Chief or Kennedy, he would win." 

We should find out within a week.

 

Data Shows Obamacare a Major Success

Have you noticed we don't seem to be hearing much of that hysterically negative political invective or media coverage about Obamacare anymore?  That's likely because the Obamacare success story continues to gather momentum.  Check out this chart from the Urban Institute:





This parallels the findings of the Commonwealth Fund, Gallup Poll and the Rand Corporation, all of which report their research shows the number of uninsured people has declined by 9.3 to 9.5 million since the enrollments got under way.  And the chart above makes clear, the numbers would even be a lot better except for roughly half the states governed by Republicans who spitefully have blocked federal Medicaid expansion in their jurisdictions.  For states not expanding Medicaid the uninsured percentage has dropped from 21.1% to 18.3%.  For all adults in every state it's gone from 18.5% to 13.9%.  In states accepting the federal help, the uninsured rate is down from 16.5% to barely 10%.  And what about the "sticker shock" and supposedly "ruinous costs" detractors kept predicting?  Well, the average premium for the great majority qualifying for subsidies to help with their purchase is just $82 a month.  

Yes, there's been very little reporting on this of late.  In the case of Republican flacks and the scandal-and-crisis-obsessed media, I guess good news is no news.  For the rest of us?  It's time to spread the word. 

Colin Powell Supports Universal Health Care

Colin Powell, speaking in Seattle at a forum for survivors of prostate cancer (a history that readers of this space will know that he and I share), made an impassioned plea in favor of universal health care in America.  The former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Secretary of State had this to say:

"I am not an expert in health care, or Obamacare, or the Affordable Care Act, or however you choose to describe it, but I do know this: I have benefited from that kind of universal health care in my 55 years of public life, and I don't see why we can't do what Europe is doing, what Canada is doing, what Korea is doing, what all these other places are doing."

"All these other places" have a "single payer" health care system, akin to "Medicare for all."  It's what many Democrats had actually been hoping for in the Health Care initiative.  Readers of this space will certainly know that I have strongly backed Obamacare as a way to increase Medicaid to the poor and help subsidize those of modest means to afford health insurance.  It's a huge improvement over the way things have been done (or not done, to be more accurate) in our country, for it's a moral imperative that everyone deserves needed medical care.  

Most people agree.  In a November CNN/ORC Poll, 40% of the people supported Obamacare and 58% did not.  But of those, 14% were opposed because they felt Obamacare doesn't go far enough. Add those to the 40% who back Obamacare and you have a majority who feel  public action is called for compared to 44% who don't.  AS CNN puts it,  "That means that 54% either support Obamacare, or say it's not liberal enough."

Powell gives voice to this view.  Alex Lazar of ABC News relates how 

Powell told the audience about a woman named Anne, who as his firewood supplier, faced a healthcare scare of her own. Anne asked Powell to help pay for her healthcare bills, as her insurance didn't cover an MRI she needed as a prerequisite to being treated for a growth in her brain. In addition, Powell's wife Alma recently suffered from three aneurysms and an artery blockage. "After these two events, of Alma and Anne, I've been thinking, why is it like this?" said Powell.

That is certainly the same question most people with a heart and an open mind have been asking for a long time now.  Why is it so important in the minds of some to make sure sick people do not get medical treatment?  As Powell elaborated:

"We are a wealthy enough country with the capacity to make sure that every one of our fellow citizens has access to quality health care.  Let's show the rest of the world what our democratic system is all about and how we take care of all of our citizens.  I think universal health care is one of the things we should really be focused on, and I hope that will happen," said Powell. "Whether it's Obamacare, or son of Obamacare, I don't care. As long as we get it done.
                                    
Amen to that.

Obamacare Is On The Road To Success

A remarkable and rather unheralded development is quietly taking place regarding the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) health overhaul.  Enrollments are surging now, particularly in the 14 states running their own exchanges.  The Buffalo News reports that the Empire State signed up 48,162 last week, about half of whom bought insurance on the exchange while the other half signed up for the expanded Medicaid eligibility.  Connecticut is on track and about 14% of the way to their enrollment goals for the March 31 deadline.

Covered California has signed up 59,000 for the private exchanges and added 72,000 to Medicaid.  The Golden State is adding another 2,000 people a day to its rolls.  Covered Oregon "cut its uninsured population by 10 percent in the first six weeks of enrollment."  The Los Angeles Times  reports rapidly accelerating momentum.  "California — which enrolled about 31,000 people in health plans last month — nearly doubled that in the first two weeks of this month."  "What we are seeing is incredible momentum," said Peter Lee, director of Covered California.

The effects of state cooperation have been important.  To give you an idea, Kentucky is the only southern venue in which the state government has supported the program.  5,586 Kentuckians have signed up for insurance there.  Meanwhile, 2,921, about half as many, have signed up in Texas, even though Texas has six times Kentucky's population. 

Nationwide,about 400,000 people have been added to Medicaid and about half that many have secured private insurance coverage through ACA.  Despite the rocky federal website roll out, as things continue to improve the country is rapidly reaching a tipping point.  Before long there will be a million people directly helped by Obamacare.  As the detractors have feared all along, once that happens they will never be able to get rid of it.  It will prove as politically impossible for them to repeal the program and take coverage away from people as it has been for them to repeal Social Security or Medicare.