How Will Court Rule on Marriage Equality and Obamacare?

Business Insider ran a story on the two pressing Supreme Court cases still to be announced this session. The first case will rule whether states can refuse to marry same-sex couples. The second, King v. Burwell, will decide whether the U.S. government can continue to pay subsidies to people for Obamacare if they live in a state that has not set up its own health care exchange. If they so rule, it will largely wreck Obamacare in 36 states. You can see the article here.

In it, Carter Phillips, an attorney who has argued 80 cases before the high court, predicts the court will rule in favor of same-sex marriage. He says, "I think it could be more than 5-4 because I think the justices will figure out the way the winds of history are blowing and will not be keen on seeing their individual legacies tarnished by having hopelessly attempted to block the protection of rights." 

He rates the Obamacare case a tossup, based on the questioning of the justices at the hearing. All four liberal justices seemed to strongly affirm an interpretation of the wording that permits the subsidies to continue, even if the exchange has not been "established by the state." In Phillips's view, the questions and comments from the bench of only three conservative justices indicate implacable opposition to the subsidies. Two others, Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy, appeared undecided and could go either way. "The four liberals were very aggressive at the oral argument and only three of the conservatives were," Phillips said. "So if Obama could pick off either the Chief or Kennedy, he would win." 

We should find out within a week.