Democrats: The Next Contests

Super Tuesday is over, and with a near-tie in the delegate count (estimates including the leanings of super delegates suggest Clinton may be up by about 50 right now) the Democratic race will go on. So, what's up next on the schedule? And who gets the edge?

Louisiana votes on Saturday with 66 delegates at stake. There are factors favoring both candidates here. It's a closed primary (Democrats only), which favors Clinton. But the state has a fairly large black population, and that favors Obama. Even so, as many as 200,000 mainly black residents displaced by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 have never returned, and that helps Clinton. There has been some recent polling, for what they're worth this year, and they give Clinton an average lead of 3.8%. So figure the bayou state as a tossup leaning Clinton. She could really use a win there because the rest of the upcoming schedule looks pretty good for Obama.

Washington and Nebraka hold caucuses on Saturday. Washington chooses 97 delegates and Nebraska selects 31. This format has strongly favored Obama this year. Only in Nevada has Clinton carried a caucus state; all the rest from Iowa in the beginning to Minnesota, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, North Dakota and Alaska among the February 5 contests have gone for Obama. The enthusiasm of Obama's backers get them out to what may be long sessions during caucuses where they appeal to the undecideds to join them. There's no recent polling data on these states but there isn't much reason to think that the caucus pattern will change much on Saturday. Expect Obama to carry both handily.

Maine holds caucuses on Sunday with 34 delegates up for grabs. Clinton is popular among Democrats in the Northeast and it's a closed caucus, both of which help her. If you've been paying attention this far you know the caucus format itself, of course, helps Obama. Maine is probably Clinton's best chance to win a caucus anytime soon, so she has a shot here. Call it a tossup.

Then next Tuesday the 12th comes the "Chesapeake Primaries" of Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia. Virginia picks 101 delegates and Maryland 99. D. C. will vote overwhelmingly for Obama based on an electorate that's over 80% black. The most recent poll in Virginia was in October, so it's of little value now. For what it's worth it had Clinton at 49, Obama 25, Edwards 10 and Richardson 5. Extrapolating from other states on how the numbers have changed since then I'd expect a narrow win for either side, most likely Obama because it's an open primary where independents can vote. A mid-January poll in Maryland had Obama already up by 13 so he should win there easily, even though the primary is for Democrats only.

The upshot? I see Obama outperforming Clinton by about 66 delegates in the next week's contests, moving him ahead in the national delegate count. Clinton has to make it through this gauntlet and Wisconsin and Hawaii on the 19th with her campaign still intact. She needs to get to the March 4 votes in Texas and Ohio without demoralization setting in. If she can, she can look to recover there. For both sides, managing expectations will be crucial in the weeks ahead.