Iraq: The Elephant in the Living Room

An interesting answer came up when the American people were recently asked in an Associated Press-Ipsos poll what should be done to get the country out of recession. The number one response, named by nearly half the people, was to get the country out of Iraq. Though Iraq is in the news less these days, the American people seem not to have forgotten about it. It's still the largest of elephants in the national living room.

The survey found that 48% offered ending the war as the most important thing we could do to revive an economy that most feel is already in recession. Another 20% said it would help at least somewhat. That adds up to 68% who are worried about the war's economic impact on the country and themsleves. It is instructive that even without a great deal of recent media or political prodding, it is clear the war remains strongly in the people's minds. Other polls show nearly 60% feel the invasion and occupation was a mistake and nearly 70% say the U.S. should leave Iraq within a year. But the economic connection shows people are thinking this through and drawing important conclusions about what the entire Iraqi fiasco means for the country.

The other day I published a list of the direct economic costs of the wars this country has fought, in constant 2007 dollars. Iraq recently moved into second place behind only World War II. The bill is now over $700 billion, and that includes just the appropriations for the war itself. It does not count the costs of caring for wounded veterans here at home, income lost by reservists called up, productivity lost by their businesses or employers due to their absences, mental health costs for the returning soldiers and their families, the increased incidence of suicide, violent crime and alcohol and drug abuse that has begun to be documented among the war's veterans, the opportunity cost of funds spent in Iraq that would otherwise have gone into commercial and consumer activity building the economy here at home and a host of other such indirect costs that together have drained the national coffers more than the war itself.

One study estimated the overall price tag at over $3 trillion. Impossibly high, some say. Perhaps. But just consider one item. The entire $700 billion is borrowed money. At 8% that's $56 billion in interest per year. And it keeps going up. If we spend another $200 billion this year that will not only bring the direct total to $900 billion but will add another $16 billion to next year's interest payment, which will rise to $72 billion per annum. Just the current direct-only figure of $700 billion works out to $2333 per person in the United States. People are thinking, 'If our family of four had our share back that would amount to $9300. How would that affect our financial situation?'

This fall the voters will get a clear choice on what to do next in Iraq. John McCain, the presumptive Republican candidate, enthusiastically backs continuing the war. He says we may be there a hundred years. His appeals are directed to pride and fear. The Democratic candidates want to, "wave the white flag of surrender," he says, as though there is dishonor in turning from self-destructive folly to sensible thinking. "If we leave Iraq, al-Qaeda will follow us home and attack us here," he says, as though the presence of 200,000 American troops and mercenaries in Iraq makes America more secure when the al-Qaeda leadership is in Pakistan and they have operations in 70 other countries. Rational people realize they will try to attack us here whether we have foolishly tied the bulk of our ground forces down in Iraq or not. Discerning people understand that putting our forces in the wrong place actually makes us less able to defend ourselves, not more. And in financial terms, having come to these conclusions the people do not feel we are getting good value for the price this is exacting on our individual and national purses.

Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton say they would begin withdrawing forces from Iraq rapidly following their inauguration. Based on what the people are telling the pollsters this looks like a winning position for the general election. We'll see whether the electorate's disillusionment with the war and rational objections to the premises for its continuation can be overcome by McCain's coming campaign of flag-waving and baseless fearmongering. It will be most instructive to learn whether those old reliable staples of Karl Rove and George Bush still have legs or whether the people, who began to see through the charade before the 2006 congressional elections, have truly broken free of their spell.