To get elected president, Barack Obama needs to win 18 more electoral votes than John Kerry did in 2004. For John McCain to win he needs to keep that from happening. In yesterday's blog we saw that Obama currently stands to pick up at least 14 electoral votes in the Far West and perhaps as many as 25. Today we'll see that he is currently outperforming the 2004 Democratic performance by another 46 electoral votes in the 13 states of the Midwest.
In 2004 Republican George W. Bush enjoyed the upper hand in the Midwest. He carried 9 Midwestern states with 73 electoral votes (EVs). Democrat John Kerry took 4 states with 58 EVs. An average of recent polls this year shows McCain solidly ahead in just 5 states with 24 EVs. One other state with 11 EVs is leaning his way. Obama has strong leads in 3 states with 49 EVs, and four other midwest states with 55 EVs are leaning his way. If the election were held today Obama would apparently outperform Kerry's Midwestern showing by 46 EVs. Unless McCain can turn that around he is sure to lose.
McCain holds safe leads only in the 5 states of the Great Plains. These were all states Bush won last time. The states and their electoral votes are North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5), Kansas (6) and Oklahoma (7). The only other state in the region where McCain is ahead is Missouri (11). The averages of 4 polls taken in May and June had McCain ahead there by 3.8%.
Obama has strong leads in three states that went for Kerry. These are Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10) and his home state of Illinois (21). He is ahead narrowly in another, Michigan (17). Most importantly, Obama is currently leading in three states in the region that Kerry lost, Iowa (7), Indiana (11) and Ohio (20). If McCain is unable to turn those states, especially Ohio, around, his chances of victory in November are very poor. Since he already seems likely to under perform Bush by 14 in the West, he really can't even afford to lose even Iowa in the Midwest. He could offset this by taking Michigan and will have to make a huge effort there. Let's look at the close states in a little more detail.
In Michigan Obama's average lead in 5 recent Michigan polls is only 2%, but he seems to be gaining the momentum. Two surveys taken in May each gave McCain 4% leads, but three taken in June have Obama up by an average of 6%. The economy is the overriding concern here, especially auto manufacturing. Exploding gas prices are a prime factor too, since they are depressing auto sales, particularly the SUV and truck sales that have been bringing in the highest profits and providing the most jobs in the American companies in recent years. McCain will try forlornly to convince people that more Bush-style tax cuts are the answer. He may have better luck advocating taking all restrictions off oil drilling. Picking Mitt Romney, who beat McCain here in the primary and whose father was governor 40 years ago, as his running mate might help in Michigan too. Obama has an intrinsic advantage here because things are not working as is and he is identified with change. He proposes government assistance to promote alternative energy and fuel economy and talks of renegotiating the NAFTA treaty that many blame for exporting jobs.
Ohio resembles Michigan in its pain over the loss of manufacturing jobs. The average of recent polls has Obama ahead by 4.5%, a figure that has been growing. No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio, and if McCain cannot close this gap he will have to take Michigan and its 17 EVs to mostly compensate for Ohio's loss. Failure to win either would almost certainly doom his candidacy.
If that weren't bad enough for McCain, Obama is currently leading in the longtime Republican bastion of Indiana. This is a serious problem for him. Indiana hasn't voted for a Democrat for president since 1964, but Obama is running 0.5% ahead according to the current averages. Indianapolis in central Indiana and Gary in the northwest have large African-American populations. The northwest manufacturing corridor is experiencing the same problems Ohio and Michigan are encountering. In addition, northwest Indiana is within the Obama-adoring Chicago media market and even includes many commuters who work in Chicago. These demographics and conditions are balancing Indian's big downstate rural vote and have put the Hoosier State in play for the first time in over 40 years. It is a drain on McCain's campaign to have to commit scarce resources to a state that Republicans usually have no worries about. Consider that just by taking Indiana (11) and Iowa (7) and holding the other Kerry states, Obama would secure the 18 EVs he needs to win the election--even without turning any of the Western states where he also leads.
Obama also leads by an average of 5.5% in Iowa. He built a strong organization here for the caucuses that launched his campaign. Iowa has been closely divided in recent elections, going for Gore narrowly in 2000 and Bush narrowly in 2004. It is mainly a farm state but its large 19th century German-immigrant descended population has traditionally been strongly peace-minded. Obama has an excellent chance to capture Iowa's 7 EVs this year.
McCain is holding an average lead of 3.8% in Missouri. Missouri is a state where the election is usually close but the Republican wins. Bush came out ahead in both 2000 and 2004. Obama is paying a lot of visits to Missouri and including it in his TV buys. As in Indiana, if this forces McCain to have to campaign, spend money and send personnel to Missouri it leaves him weaker elsewhere. Since Obama is expected to top McCain in fundraising and has more employees and volunteers, this works strongly to his advantage. Missouri has the two great cities of St. Louis and Kansas City on its east and west borders respectively (Obama-friendly), with a lot of rural, and downstate, Southern-descended whites in between (McCain-friendly). Obama could possibly win the Show Me State, though I expect it to go McCain unless the overall election turns into an Obama runaway.
To sum up then, if the election were held today Barack Obama would take all the Great Lakes States of the Midwest plus Iowa with a total of 104 electoral votes. This would better John Kerry's 2004 showing by 46 EVs and assure his election as president. McCain would take the five Great Plains states plus Missouri for 35 electoral votes. I'm expecting McCain to hold onto Missouri and probably turn Indiana back into his column. I do at this point feel Obama will win in Michigan, Ohio and Iowa. If so, he will still better the Democrats' 2004 record by 35 electoral votes in the Midwest region, more than enough to provide the 18 he needs nationally to assure his election.
In order to avoid this McCain will have to change the entire dynamic of the race. His party faces a sharply uphill struggle with war dragging on and a bad economy under its watch. McCain's best shot at this is to hope that by making Barack Obama himself the issue, raising questions about his capacity to lead, voters will decide to go with the experienced alternative.
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