I wrap up my election analysis by region today with a look at the Northeast. The 11 states from the Potomac River northward plus the District of Columbia are the Democratic base area in the same sense the South is for Republicans. John Kerry won the entire region and its 117 electoral votes in 2004. Can Obama repeat the sweep in 2008? The answer is probably yes.
According to poll averages and knowledgeable commentators, the only state McCain has a good chance in is New Hampshire with its 4 electoral votes. McCain led two surveys in April by 3 and 6 points respectively, but Obama led in a June poll by 11. Those are the only polling numbers we have. McCain has kept both his presidential runs going with wins in the New Hampshire Primary. He is well-known and popular in the state. His favorable polls are old, though. Obama's recent 11-point lead is probably more accurate. But until we get some new data we'll have to consider New Hampshire a tossup. A win here would help McCain offset the probable loss of New Mexico (5 EV) and make Obama's task a little harder.
The rest of the region appears solid for Obama. The closest poll averages are Pennsylvania, (21 EV) where Obama leads by 7.7%, New Jersey (15) where he is up by 8.3 and Delaware (3) where he leads by 9. Obama is ahead by double digits in all the rest, including New York (31) +21%, Massachusetts (12) +18.7%, Maryland (10) +11%, Connecticut (7) +20%, Maine (4) +15%, Rhode Island (4) +18.7%, Vermont (3) +21% and the District of Columbia (3) where no poll has been taken but which is predominantly black and went for Kerry last time by 80%.
McCain has been devoting resources to Pennsylvania, which has been close but consistently gone Democratic in recent elections. It makes sense early in the campaign to see if he can get some movement his way. If he can't he may need to concede it and concentrate on holding Republican states in the West or Midwest like Ohio and Iowa and go after a Kerry state like Michigan that looks more winnable.
After this four-part investigation here is how things stand. With the election still 16 weeks out and 270 electoral votes needed, Barack Obama has solid leads in 16 states and the District of Columbia for a total of 224 electoral votes. 9 other states worth 93 electoral votes are leaning his way. That is to say, he leads in them by less than 7 percent. If the election were held today he would probably accumulate 317 electoral votes, 47 more than enough to be elected the 44th president.
John McCain has solid leads in 17 states worth 139 electoral votes. 8 other states worth 82 electoral votes are leaning toward McCain. If the election were held today McCain would likely score 221 electoral votes, 49 fewer than he needs. To take the election McCain would need to hold onto all the states he currently leads in and take 49 away in states now leaning to Obama. Of course, Obama could win in one or more of the states now leaning McCain, and that would necessitate McCain flipping additional Obama territory. Obama has the advantage. Victory for McCain is a tall order but with this much time left it is far from impossible.
It is in 17 states, the 9 "leaning" Obama and the 8 "leaning" McCain, where the 2008 election will be decided. Neither candidate will make many appearances, spend much money or send many organizers to the other 33 states of the union. That is how the Electoral College system operates. To follow the race this year, pay attention to events and issues in the following states (electoral votes in parentheses). Remember, McCain needs to win some combination of the states leaning to Obama that totals 49 or more electoral votes, without losing in any of the states where he leads.
Leaning Obama: Oregon (7), Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), Iowa (7), Michigan (17), Indiana (11), Ohio (20), Virginia (13), New Hampshire (4).
Leaning McCain: Alaska (3), Nevada (5), Montana (3), North Dakota (3), Missouri (11), Florida (27), Georgia (15), North Carolina (15).
2 comments:
In other words, it's Obama's to lose this year. Let's hope he doesn't rest on any laurels or say or do something stupid in the next four months.
You're right; it's his to lose. The tide is running the Democrats' way this year thanks to the poor record the Republicans have compiled during their tenure in power. Obama should win if he and his campaign follow your advice. Sometimes that's the hard part!
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