Presidential Race: The South

The dynamics of the South in this year's voting are simple. George W. Bush won every state in the region in the last two elections and John McCain needs to do the same in 2008. Remember that McCain must keep Barack Obama from improving John Kerry's 2004 results by 18 electoral votes in order to win. Since we have seen that Obama appears poised to tip more than that number away from him in the West and Midwest, McCain can ill afford any defections from the Republican base region. Unfortunately for him, he is running behind in one state and stands in electoral jeopardy in three others.

The list of Southern states McCain can count on, with their electoral votes in parentheses, includes: Texas (34), Tennessee (11), Alabama and Louisiana (9 each), South Carolina and Kentucky (8 each), Arkansas and Mississippi (6 apiece) and West Virginia (5). Some might disagree with calling West Virginia a Southern state, (especially the people who live there!) but it certainly has been voting like one for the past eight years and this year should be no different.

Four other states in the region could go to Obama. These are Virginia (13), Florida (27), North Carolina and Georgia (both with 15). An Obama win in Florida alone would likely ensure his election, and a victory for him in any of the other three would make it extremely difficult for McCain to stop him. Let's look at the specifics in these four states.

Obama is actually running ahead in Virginia. The average of three June surveys has him leading by 1.7%. The state has been getting more competitive of late, including the election of Democrats Tim Kaine as governor in 2005 and Jim Webb as U.S. Senator in 2006. Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner is also considered to be ahead in the race to replace retiring GOP Senator John Warner (no relation) this year.

In Virginia Obama starts with a likely vote of 95% or more among African-Americans, who make up about a third of the voters. That means he needs about one-third of the white vote to carry the state. That is difficult for a Democrat in a lot of Southern states, but Virginia's demographics are changing. The rapidly growing suburbs in Northern Virginia around Washington, D.C. are seeing a heavy influx of people from Northern states. Many are federal government workers who tend to vote Democratic.

Obama is heavily targeting Virginia, and with another $30 million raised last month he gives every indication of being able to press the issue in the Old Dominion. All the polls show the race there is close, but all show him ahead. McCain will have to make a major effort to win, expending scarce resources that he might rather devote to the closely contested states of the Midwest. And even then it could go for Obama anyway.

Perennial battleground Florida looks close again this year. The average of four polls in June show McCain ahead by 2.2%. Florida has a very unusual electorate. In the Western panhandle it is a typical southern state, reliably Republican. The Southeast has a huge, historically Republican Cuban population in and around Miami but also a large number of Northern retirees, particularly Jews who have been a Democratic voting bloc. From Tampa to Orlando teem standard American suburban populations concerned about pocketbook issues, which should tend to help Obama this year. But the military population is high, too, and they usually trend Republican.

This hodgepodge is what makes Florida hard to predict and usually close. The bottom line is that Obama would love to win the Sunshine State but that McCain absolutely has to. Without its 27 electoral votes he has almost no path to victory. If it stays close McCain will have to devote whatever time and resources it takes to try to secure Florida. In that case, the McCain campaign in places like Colorado, New Mexico and Michigan will just have to do without.

North Carolina presents Obama with another real opportunity. The average of the three statewide polls taken in June shows McCain leading by just 3.3%. It's close because of a large African-American vote and also because the Charlotte-Raleigh-Durham metropolis in the center of the state, anchored with numerous major universities and a burgeoning high-tech sector, is growing increasingly liberal. Obama also has a strong organization still in place from his big primary win here.

McCain doesn't have the resources to match Obama dollar for dollar everywhere. He will probably not be able to spend as much time or allocate as much money or personnel in North Carolina as he would like. He will have to hope the state's traditional patterns reassert themselves and that he can eke out a win. Losing these 15 electoral votes would be a very heavy blow for him.

The final Southern state that looks competitive is Georgia. McCain leads in the Peach State by an average of 6.7%. That's a decent margin but certainly not one that can be taken for granted with 3 1/2 months to go in the race. McCain is being hurt a bit by the Libertarian candidacy of former Georgia Republican Congressman Bob Barr. Barr is polling as high as 4% in some surveys. I'm expecting Barr's support will wane as the election approaches, to about 2%. McCain should not seriously have to worry about Georgia's 15 electoral votes unless the whole election race starts to turn into a runaway.

But his position is precarious enough right now. John McCain is vulnerable in a number of states George W. Bush won in 2004, and he cannot afford to lose very many of them and still win in November. That particularly applies to the usually safe Republican states in the South. He could really use a Southern Sweep, and at the moment that's not looking anything like a sure bet.