Presidential Race: The West

Today I'll begin a series on the electoral vote prospects for the presidential election race. Since I'm a Westerner I'll start in the West and move East, region by region. The West currently looks like an area where Barack Obama will make some gains.

There are 538 total electoral votes at stake in the fifty states and District of Columbia. It takes 270 to get a majority and win the White House. Keep in mind the results of the 2004 election between Bush and Kerry. Bush won with 286 electoral votes to Kerry's 252. That means Barack Obama must better Kerry's showing by 18 electoral votes in order to win. The overall popular vote across the country means nothing. What matters is winning states. If a candidate wins a state (or Washington, D.C.) by any margin he will get all of its electoral votes.

The electoral values of the 13 Western states, from west to east, are: Hawaii 4, Alaska 3, Washington 11, Oregon 7, California 55, Nevada 5, Idaho 4, Utah 5, Arizona 10, Montana 3, Wyoming 3, Colorado 9, and New Mexico 5. California is obviously the big prize in the region. In 2004 Kerry won Hawaii, Washington, Oregon and California for a total of 77 electoral votes. Bush won the other nine states and 47 electoral votes.

It looks as though Obama has an excellent chance to pick up most of or all of the 18 extra electoral votes he needs across the country just in the Western states alone. Of the 9 states Bush won, McCain is only solidly ahead in 4: Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and his home state of Arizona. He has narrow leads in 3 others. An average of recent polls has McCain ahead by 5.5% in Alaska, 2.5% in Nevada and 1.5% in Montana. And Obama actually leads in the other 2, Colorado by 3.5% and New Mexico by 5%. Of the states Kerry won, Obama has big average leads in 3, but only leads in Oregon by an average of 5.5%.

So if the election were held today it looks as though Obama would take 91 electoral votes to McCain's 33, with up to 11 additional electoral votes vulnerable to Obama. Of course, 7 of Obama's appear vulnerable to McCain too. But as things stand now, with a lot of time to go, it must be said, Obama would pick up 14 of the 18 new EV's he needs in this region.

Here is what's going on in some of the battleground states. In Alaska, longtime Republican incumbent Senator Ted Stevens is the target of a corruption investigation and faces a serious re-election challenge from the popular Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. Obama is pouring TV money and organizational power into this usually-safe Republican state.

Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico have large Hispanic populations which are trending for Obama 2 to 1. During the Democratic primaries Hillary Clinton was winning Hispanics 2-1 over Obama and it was wondered whether they would switch their allegiance back to him. They apparently have. McCain is also hurt with this group by his party's tough position on immigration. He at first personally supported a "comprehensive" immigration solution but it was defeated in the Senate and McCain after that felt forced to stress enforcement over the path to legal residency in order to succeed in the Republican primary race. Bush won 44% of Hispanics in 2004 but it looks as though McCain will not do nearly as well. These three states are all close right now. Obama has the edge in Colorado and New Mexico while McCain leads narrowly in Nevada.

Montana has an independent libertarian streak and has been trending more Democratic of late. Both U.S. Senators and the Governor are now Democrats. Obama has visited Montana and bought TV time there too. His primary caucus organization is already in place and pushing his message of "change" in a state that seems frustrated with the status quo. A Mason-Dixon Poll back in May had McCain ahead by 8% but the Rasmussen survey conducted July 1 showed Obama up by 5%. Obama clearly feels he has a good shot here. It could go either way.

Oregon is the one Kerry state where Obama is not solidly ahead. The state has gone Democratic in the last five presidential elections, but often only narrowly so. Incumbent Republican Senator Gordon Smith is doing all he can to distance himself from President Bush and assume a moderate posture in order to get re-elected. He has even begun touting his agreements with Obama in his battle to defeat challenger Jeff Merkley. Oregon is divided between the liberal strongholds of Portland and the university towns of Eugene and Corvallis and the conservative rural regions of the rest of the state. It would be surprising if McCain were able to win here, but the polls say he has a chance.

Overall, Obama appears poised to gain some ground in the West. If he can make some inroads here and hold the former Democratic states elsewhere he will only need one or two other pickups somewhere in the country in order to be elected. John McCain is being hurt by the economy and President Bush's unpopularity in a region that is usually safe for the GOP except for the Pacific Coast. Just remember there are still almost four months to go until the election, enough time for a lot to happen.