Iraq, Iran and the Campaign

With John McCain largely staking his presidential bid on foreign concerns and Barack Obama overseas, international issues are taking front and center in the campaign this week. Here's a look at some of the current and prospective developments.

Iraq: Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki stirred things up this week by saying there should be a timeline for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from his country. He and President Bush are in the midst of directing negotiations on a successor agreement to the United Nations mandate that sanctions the American presence in Iraq. The U.N. mandate expires on December 31. Al-Maliki's statement matches Obama's campaign pledge to withdraw from Iraq and directly contradicts the preferences of Bush and Senator McCain, who want no restrictions on continuing the American military presence. What is behind this?

Bush wants the U.S. to have the right to stay indefinitely. So does McCain. Maliki needs to raise the issue of getting the foreigners out for domestic political reasons. He needs to look tough, but he doesn't really want American forces to go anytime soon. They are propping him up in power. When they do go there will probably be a three-sided civil war between the Sunnis, Maliki's Shiites and Muqtada al-Sadr's Shiites. Bush and Maliki will dance around this issue for awhile and reach an agreement before the deadline runs out.

Because he needed to give Maliki something to take to his parliament, Bush floated some vague compromise language about making eventual reductions as the situation warrants. An Obama spokesman immediately pounced, saying, "It is welcome if the President is moving toward Senator Obama's position." Speaker Pelosi chimed in, pointing to the vague nature of Bush's statement and saying we need to pull out faster. Bush and McCain then decried the idea of a rapid drawdown as likely to lead to deterioration in the security situation in Iraq.

You will see both sides sticking to their guns from here on as this unfolds. Maliki gave Obama some ammunition on this one and hurt Bush and McCain a bit. Obama continuing to push for a drawdown is a winning position for him. Two-thirds of the American people still favor ending the war. Disengaging there is a signature issue for him and he will be seen as the king of flip-floppers if he says anything else.

Bush wants to help McCain win, since McCain is the one who will carry on the President's policy legacy in Iraq if he is elected. The two of them cannot afford to vaccilate now without risking losing the confidence of their strongest supporters. At most, Bush might withdraw a few troops right before the election as a way of saying the situation is improving thanks to his strategy-which McCain supports.

Iran: Concern with Iraq's uranium-enrichment program continues. Obama early on called for direct negotiations. Bush said that was appeasement, a view that McCain quickly seconded. Now Bush himself has sent an emissary to a meeting which the Iranians agreed to attend. Condi Rice said they would not "negotiate" until the Iranians stop enriching uranium but there would still be a "meeting." The parsing of diplomatic subtelties aside, once again Obama comes across as the voice of reason and his opponents as the purveyors of campaign fearmongering. If it was such a horrifying idea why is Bush doing it himself? Preliminary reports say the meeting went like this: U.S.: You need to give up your enrichment program. Iran: No, we need guarantees you will not attack us. U.S.: No, you have to stop your program. End of meeting.

There is a great deal of talk about the United States or Israel launching a pre-emptive strike on Iran's facilities. Most Americans would view a U.S. strike as reckless and irresponsible. The army is stretched to the breaking point after 5 1/2 years in Iraq. Whether America or Israel were to strike, Iran's likely riposte would be to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the passage through which Persian Gulf oil flows to the world.

If Bush attacks it works to Obama's advantage. His best bet is to keep some form of talks going. That silences Obama on the matter. If Obama says anything he's viewed as meddling with the discussions for political reasons before he is president. Then Bush strings the talks along. If it looks like McCain is going to win he lets McCain deal with things after he takes office. If it looks like Obama is going to win then Bush just might decide to bomb as many of Iran's nuclear facilities as he can before his term ends. (Some are pretty deeply buried, it is believed.) Given Bush's previous record and Dick Cheney's stated threats on the matter, such an attack might well be mounted. Whether it would be before or after the election would depend on whether Bush thinks it would help or hurt McCain's chances and if he believes Iran is very close to developing a nuclear device.

In general: All this concentration on defense-related foreign policy issues works to McCain's advantage. Obama needs to complete his foreign tour as Bush did in 2000, make his policy positions clear, then get everyone back to talking about the economy. If the election is about domestic affairs Obama wins. If it is about foreign affairs McCain has a chance.