The status of U.S. Senate races is a topic that's been left on the back burner of late, overshadowed by the debates and all the other minutiae of the presidential contest. That being said, the stakes in the Senate are quite high this year.
The Senate has the constitutional responsibility to vote on foreign treaties, and there could be any number of trade agreements reached. The Status of Forces Agreement in Iraq could possibly be brought before the next Congressional session. The Senate also confirms Presidential appointments, including members of the Supreme Court and the lower federal courts. A uniquely imortant role of the Senate is the ability of the minority party to "filibuster," or hold up legislation they don't like, as long as they can muster 40 votes.
Thirty-five of the 100 Senate seats are being contested this year. Twenty-three Republican and twelve Democratic seats are up for grabs. Democrats currently hold a narrow 51-49 edge in the Senate, if you count Independent Joe Lieberman who caucuses with the Democrats. (On issues other than Iraq Lieberman should be counted with the Democrats.)
At present the Democrats appear to be certain to gain a minimum of four seats and lead in four additional races. That could get them to 59. After that, there are four other contests for Republican-held seats where the Democratic challenger is close enough to possibly pull an upset. That gives them an outside chance of reaching the coveted total of 60. No incumbent Democrats appear to be in danger of failing to win re-election. You can see some data at Real Clear Politics or at ElectoralVote.Com.
The sure Democratic takeaways include Colorado with Mark Udall, New Mexico with cousin Tom Udall, Virginia with Mark Warner and New Hampshire with Jean Shaheen. The first three are running for seats where a Republican is retiring. Former Governor Shaheen leads incumbent John Sununu in New Hampshire by seven points.
Three other races where Democratic challengers lead are in states where Barack Obama is running strongly. In Oregon Jeff Merkely has an average 3.3% lead over incumbent Gordon Smith. In North Carolina Kay Hagan leads Elizabeth Dole by 3.4%. In Minnesota, Al Franken has a 2.2% lead over Norm Coleman. The fourth narrow Democratic lead is in Alaska, where Mark Begich leads Ted Stevens by 3.2%. Stevens is on trial for corruption at this writing. If he is acquitted his chances may improve dramatically. No doubt the Sarah Palin nomination has already helped him some.
If all these battles go the Democrats' way they would still need one more win to reach the coveted 60 plateau. The best prospects appear to be in Georgia (down 2.6%), Mississippi (-4.0%), Kentucky (-6.5%) and Texas (-7%). So the best probability is that the Republicans will be able to hold on to the filibuster weapon, one they have wielded with record frequency the past two years. But if the Democrats do get to 59 or 58 all they will need is to entice one or two Republicans to break ranks on controversial issues.
3 comments:
Do you really think Lieberman will be welcome at Democratic Caucuses? I would assume that he'd be persona non gratia after his performance at the Republican National Convention.
What about the dynamics of seats to be filled? If the Democrats win the White House, there will be two seats that need to be filled, one in Delaware and one in Illinois. Those are picked by the Governors of the respective states. Are the Governors Republican or Democrats? Conversely, if the Republicans win, a new Senator will have to be picked to replace McCain.
Also, at the debate, Obama talked about working with Richard Luger of Indiana. Would it be possible to see Luger picked for a cabinet position? That would be good to get people from "both sides of the aisle" in the cabinet, to get a balanced view of issues, something the White House has been missing for decades imo. If Luger were tabbed, there's another seat that opens up as well.
Excellent considerations raised, Webfoot. If Obama and Biden win their positions will be filled by Democratic Governors Rod Blagojevich in Illinois and Ruth Ann Minner in Delaware.
Janet Napolitano of Arizona, a Democrat, would name John McCain's successor if he is elected President.
In Indiana, Republican Mitch Daniels holds the Governor's chair.
So, only a McCain win would change the party makeup of the Senate. That could possibly be the seat that would give McCain a filibuster-proof Democratic Senate to deal with.
Also, I forgot to comment about Joe Lieberman. Notice how Harry Reid has not booted Lieberman out of the Democratic caucus even though the Connecticut senator is out campaigning for the Republican candidate for president. Reid has hinted at that, but frankly asserts that in a 51-49 Senate he does not have the luxury of doing without Lieberman.
My guess is that if the Democrats wind up with any number other than 59, Lieberman will be drummed out. If they get 59 and Lieberman's vote would be the 60th, based on what they've done for the past two years it looks like they might just swallow hard and keep him around.
Post a Comment