Two items need discussing today: the Powell endorsement and the recent tightening in the overall national polling numbers. Is Powell's backing the last straw that breaks the McCain campaign's back and guarantees an Obama victory? Or does the narrowing gap between Obama and McCain the past few days portend a photo finish and possible McCain victory? Let's take a closer look.
Colin Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama on Meet the Press today is important symbolically but will have little discernible effect on the national numbers. The general rule of thumb is, the better known the candidates and a race are, the less influential endorsements become.
As such, it came too late to appreciably change the race. Most minds are made up by now. At best, it may act to solidify support a little among those who already back Obama. If Powell had come out this late against Obama it might have hurt him. That this did not happen is certainly a plus for the Obama effort, and the imprimatur of the former Secretary of State and Joint Chiefs Chairman should help Obama govern should he be elected. Bottom line: welcome news for the Democratic camp but not a game clincher.
On October 14 Obama enjoyed his largest spread, 8.2% in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls. By October 19 it had fallen to 5.0%. Does this shift of better than half a point per day presage a major shift to McCain and a gathering come-from-behind surge? So far, no. What it seems to indicate to this point is a major move toward increased support for McCain in red states. His margins in Texas have increased by 5% in recent days, for instance, and two West Virginia surveys show McCain's lead growing from 2% to 8%.
Obama's leads appear to be holding firm and even growing in states already leaning to him, such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado and Florida. What we appear to be seeing is the customary polarization typical of most elections; most of the remaining partisans are returning home. For McCain to win he not only has to hold all the solid Republican states where he currently leads, but must also turn things around in several states where he is behind. In the final analysis, remember, the national popular vote means nothing. Watch this week to see if there is significant movement toward McCain in places such as Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Minnesota. If so, then the last week may be a barn burner. If not, then the rotund diva will be making her entrance.
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