Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Obama Goes Three for Three

Barack Obama emerged as the clear winner in the presidential debate against John McCain tonight. Obama's third consecutive victory deals a probably lethal blow to McCain's White House hopes.

The last of the three Obama-McCain debates was a spirited interchange between the two rivals. Veteran CBS newsman Bob Schieffer steered the debate into some interesting territory avoided in earlier face-offs, including abortion and dirty campaigning. As expected, McCain took to the offensive and remained on the attack whenever possible. Obama coolly refuted McCain's thrusts and repeatedly counterattacked from defensive position.

An example was a back and forth on Bill Ayers. McCain brought up the former Weather Underground bomber to attack Obama's judgment and associations. Obama opened by remarking, "Bill Ayers has become the centerpiece of Sen. McCain's campaign over the past two or three weeks." Obama then calmly described a tangential relationship with the man, including the names of educational and Republican notables sitting on the same panels. After another dig from McCain about the effectiveness of using the Ayers issue, Obama responded with, "Your campaign says more about you than it does about me."

McCain focused on the kinds of appeals that might have worked well twenty years ago in the 1980s. He was strongly ideological, saying at one point, "The whole premise of Sen. Obama's tax policy is class warfare." He railed against big government, high taxes and "spread the wealth" thinking. He ridiculed the idea that a woman's health might be a consideration in the permissibility of late-term abortions, calling it an "extremist" position, and when confronted with the spectacle of people at his and his running mate's appearances shouting, "terrorist" and "kill him" at the mention of Obama's name, said he was "very proud of" the people who attend his rallies.

Throughout it all, McCain's efforts to rattle and provoke Obama elicited measured responses, while time and again McCain was unable to conceal his own disdain and contempt for Obama. His frequent sarcasm, grimaces and eye rolling compared poorly to Obama's earnest attentiveness when McCain spoke and broad smiles when McCain raised points that Obama considered disingenuous. Once again Obama appeared the more comfortably presidential of the two while McCain often came across as Dennis the Menace's grumpy old neighbor, Mr. Wilson.

In his closing statement, McCain fell back on his resume. He pointed to his lifetime of service, spoke of his integrity and invited the American people to trust him. Obama by contrast, issued a promise of action. He spoke of what he planned to accomplish, a 'Here's what I'm going to do for you' summation of the reasons for his campaign.

The popular verdict was decisive. CNN's survey of a national cross section proclaimed Obama the winner by 58% to 31%. Obama's favorability rating went up from 63% to 66% while McCain's fell from 51% to 49%. Obama was judged better on economic issues 59% to 35% and on health 62% to 31%. He was favored on taxes 56% to 41% and was considered more likable by a whopping 70% to 22%. A CBS poll of undecided voters preferred Obama's performance by an even more decisive margin, 53% to 22%.

Expect McCain to talk a lot about taxes and his history of service in the final two and a half weeks. His smear efforts have fallen flat, his policy plans are not resonating and his personality is irritating the voters and driving them away.

In the summer of '07 McCain's campaign had run off the tracks, his support plummeting like a stone. He dismissed almost his entire staff and started over from square one. After that came the miracle recovery that resulted in his gaining the Republican nomination. To win this election he will need another one.

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