Is the Race Tightening?

On October 25 Barack Obama enjoyed an average 8-point lead over John McCain in the presidential race. As of the 30th that is down to just under 6 points. Is the race tightening? Optimistic Republicans and here-we-go-again Democrats are beginning to speak of the possibility of a tremendous McCain come-from-behind victory. Is such a shift underway? No, the numbers and the atmospherics simply do not seem to support any such conclusion. I'll give you a rundown on national figures, state figures, and the outlines of the ground game.

Nationally, the Obama popular vote lead has been whittled in five days from 8.0 to 5.9. Obama has seen his support dip from 50.4 to 49.7, a drop of 0.7%. McCain over the same period has seen his support grow from 42.4 to 43.8, a gain of 1.4%. What does this portend? Well, if that were to continue for the remaining five days Obama would lose another 2.1% off his lead and wind up with a 3.8% margin on election day. That would be more than sufficient to win the election. Take 2% away from Obama in every state in the nation and he would win 353 to 185 in the electoral college. See the figures here. In fact, take 6% away from Obama in every state in the union and he would still win 291-247. He would still win in the 2004 Bush states of Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia. Take a look for yourself.

An evaluation of recent movement in the battleground states shows plenty of strength for Obama. McCain seems to be making inroads in Indiana and likely taking the lead. Missouri is nip and tuck. McCain may be narrowing the gap in Pennsylvania, but still trails by a lot-9%-too much, in my view, to make up in the time he has left. Obama continues to hold steady leads past the margin of error in Virginia and Ohio. And multiple surveys show him pulling farther ahead in Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, New Hampshire, Nevada and New Mexico. Even normally safe Republican states such as Montana, North Dakota, Georgia and even McCain's home state of Arizona are coming into play, if the state-by-state surveys have any validity to them. In other words, regardless of what the national popular vote numbers look like, and they still look just fine for Obama, the state figures reveal nearly unmitigated gloom for McCain's hopes. When your only good news is a positive trend in a state your party hasn't lost in 44 years (Indiana) there can't be a lot of chuckles in the front section of the campaign plane between stops.

Then finally there are other facets of the contest, and most of these also favor Obama. He has at least a 2-1 financial advantage for the last few days. He is consistently outdrawing McCain by 5-1 and better at his campaign rallies. He outdraws Palin 3-1. Big-draw surrogates such as Hillary Clinton dwarf the crowds and interest McCain's surrogates can generate. Obama has more offices, more paid staff and more volunteers in every battleground state. Usually a lot more. Half of his supporters say they are "excited" about Obama while only a fourth of McCain's feel that way about him. Early voting is trending Democratic in most states where party registration is recorded for it. And the more early voting there is while Obama has the lead the less of that lead he can lose if people later change their minds.

The principal dangers Obama has to worry about are that, first, the young voters who are his most loyal supporters will not bother to vote in the strong numbers they did during the primaries. And second, that the residual strength of the Republican get out the vote effort and historically more loyal voting pattern of Republican voters will reassert themselves. There is also the question of Obama's race, and that is an imponderable that no one will know for sure about until the votes are counted. Still, to this point, surveys and primary results indicate its effects should not be enough to overturn the leads he now holds. See my October 21 post on this.

The numbers, trends and conditions are what they are. An Obama victory is extremely likely, and grows more so with each passing day that goes by without a seismic change event in McCain's favor. I'll keep watching carefully for you over the next few days, but that is certainly how it stands right now.