Vice President: Obama's Options

There is little doubt both candidates have settled on their vice presidential choices by now. Intentional leaks by both camps hint at their respective timing strategies. It seems Obama will announce his choice Wednesday or Thursday, to build advance excitement entering the Democratic Convention which starts next Monday the 25th. Obama and his number two will probably then make some joint appearances leading up to the convention. For his part, McCain is looking to announce his choice Friday the 29th, the day after the Democratic convention ends. This is intended to grab the spotlight away from the Democrats immediately after they have been on center stage the four days of their convention.

The frontrunners for Obama are widely reputed to be Gov. Tim Kaine of Virginia, Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana and Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware. Hillary Clinton could be a dark horse pick.

On the Democratic side, Kaine has the advantage of doubling down on Obama's message of youth and change. He was chosen by the party to give the response to President Bush's State of the Union Address. He could also help Obama win the normally Republican state of Virginia and its 13 electoral votes. That would be big on election night. Surveys show the race there is neck and neck. On the downside, Kaine is relatively inexperienced, like Obama. He is still in his first term as Virginia's governor. He also has little foreign policy experience, an area where Obama may need some help.

Bayh has a lot of experience as a longtime Senator and former governor of usually solidly Republican Indiana. He comes from a family that's been politically prominent in Indiana for a long time. Bayh is smart and knowledgeable but not known as much of a scintillating speaker. He could help steady the ticket and might help deliver Indiana's 11 electoral votes. The Hoosier State is another one where polls show the two principals running neck and neck.

Biden has over 30 years of experience in the Senate and is widely regarded as an expert on defense and foreign relations. These are precisely the areas where Obama could use the most help against McCain. He is a Catholic and has working class appeal. Biden is also famously garrulous and would have no trouble doing the sharp-tongued hatchet work of responding to the crescendo of Republican attacks now descending on Obama. As a senior white man he could also reassure voters uneasy about Obama's race and inexperience. His main disadvantages are that his state is already reliably Democratic and sometimes his verbal shots from the hip get him into trouble. Even so, his total package makes him, in my opinion, the most likely partner to join Obama on the Demcoratic ticket.

Hillary Clinton might still have an outside shot to join Obama on the podium in Denver. She would draw senior women back to Obama in droves and would help with Hispanics too. She is combative and would blister McCain and his running mate with regularity and without remorse. She is encyclopedic on policy, including defense, and is, ironically, the most "macho" major Democrat in the country. On the downside, her presence on the ticket could mobilize the Republican base and Clinton-haters in general to turn out in large numbers in opposition. I do believe that, electorally, her joining the ticket would be a plus for Obama and would provide a clear path to victory in November. However, governing with her (and her husband the former president), in the wings could turn out to be a nightmare for Obama. For that reason I feel he will probably go with Biden.

I'll look at the Republican field tomorrow.