John McCain is expected to announce his choice for Vice President Friday the 29th, the day after the Democratic Convention ends with Barack Obama's much-anticipated open-air acceptance speech before 76,000 partisans at Denver's football stadium. McCain's timing is intended to grab the media attention away from his rival and provide a buildup for him and the Republican Convention the following week.
Speculation about McCain's choice centers on three considered his most likely picks. These are former Massachusetts Governor and primary rival Mitt Romney, former Pennsylvania Governor and Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. Long shots include former Ohio Congressman and Bush Budget Director Rob Portman, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and Senator Joe Lieberman.
Romney has the private business expertise and executive political experience McCain lacks. In an anti-Washington year, none of this experience is associated with D. C. He is 61 but seems younger. He has deep personal financial resources and access to much more in the world of finance. His Mormon roots could help McCain in Nevada and perhaps a bit in Colorado. But of course his faith could also work against the ticket among evangelicals who mistrust the Latter Day Saints creed. Then too, McCain is said not to personally like Romney very much. For a man who values the comfortable relationships of old friends these drawbacks will probably prove too much.
Ridge has some important pluses, including his ties to Pennsylvania, a state Obama must win. He connects with working class voters and his service as Homeland Security Director fits well into McCain's security theme. He is also a good friend and confidante of McCain's. The main problem he presents for the ticket is that he is pro-choice. While this position is shared by the majority of the electorate, it is practically a disqualification among the Republican base. The chance that his nomination might be greeted with horror by some within the party and cause a public split is likely enough to dissuade his selection.
That leaves Pawlenty as McCain's most probable choice. The Minnesota governor, at 47, brings some youth to a ticket headed by the oldest candidate ever to run for a first term. He has the executive experience away from Washington McCain is looking for, and plays well to working class types, once saying the Republican Party needs to appeal "to Sam's Club, not just the country club." Pawlenty is a persuasive speaker. He will be the host governor of the convention, though it might be a stretch to think he could sway the state into the GOP column in November. He won re-election to his job by only 1% in 2006. Still, his fiscal management of the state has garnered respect, and without the negatives of the other two major contenders I consider him the most likely choice for the second spot on the ticket.
1 comment:
This will be interesting to see how these play out. Of course both will announce a couple of days before their respective conventions. The better to get those placards printed and distributed to the convention floor.
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