Sarah Palin: What McCain Is Thinking

Sarah who? What on earth was John McCain thinking? Is the elevation of the little-known Alaska governor a shrewd move or a big mistake? Actually, it's a little of both. And as always with a surprise, there's an element of, well, surprise. We won't really know until she's been out there awhile and we see how she does. Until then, here's a window into McCain's thinking, with the positives first.

McCain's immediate reason for choosing a big surprise as a running mate was to steal some buzz from Barack Obama. Practically everyone but Republican partisans has been raving about his magnificent acceptance speech in Denver last night before an audience of more than 38 million-even larger than the Opening Cermony in Beijing or the final of American Idol. The Palin (pronounced PAY-lin) announcement was such a stunner that it's captured a lot of the limelight. Obama had already gotten a convention "bump" in the early Gallup tracking poll to an 8-point lead, and this should do something to head off further Obama gains. In that sense, it was a good move.

A second purpose was to soldify the conservative base. Palin is conservative, as in VERY conservative on social issues. She believes abortion should be illegal, even in cases of rape, incest or to protect the life of the mother. She was pregnant with a Down's Syndrome baby and delivered the child. She is a Lifetime NRA member, an evangelical Christian and a self-described hunter and "hockey mom" of five. The Christian Coalition has already sent out a glowing endorsement. So, most of the people who were going to vote Republican anyway will have one more reason to do so. This is even though as governor she vetoed a measure that would have denied benefits to gay domestic partners. As a minor side benefit, that has made the Log Cabin Republicans, the largest gay group in the GOP, also very happy with the pick.

Another McCain purpose was to reinforce his "maverick" and "reformer" reputations. Palin spared no criticism of the corrupt Alaskan Republican power structure. She not only brought up the irregularities of former Governor and Senator Frank Murkowski, but also called to task another fellow Republican, Senator Ted Stevens, who is currently under indictment. In this year when postpartisanism is being thrown around a lot, that kind of independence will play well. Unfortunately, she herself is being investigated for allegedly using her influence as governor to get her former brother-in-law fired for vindictive reasons. One can only hope for the ticket's sake that the McCain people thoroughly vetted these charges and believe she will be quickly vindicated. If she isn't it would be a disaster.

Now we venture into the realm of the more dubious. Without doubt one of McCain's concerns on his 72nd birthday was to unveil a running mate much younger than himself. At 44, Palin certainly fills that bill. But her youth comes at a heavy potential cost. She is so green she does much to undermine McCain's claims of advantage on foreign policy and as commander in chief. She has been mayor of a town of 6,000, governor for less than two years of a state with a population no larger than a middling city and possesses no foreign policy resume. At all. When asked her views on Iraq, she answered that she hadn't thought about it much! It could have been an advantage that one of her sons is about to be deployed there, but then so is one of Joe Biden's.

Sarah Palin is clearly unready to direct the foreign policy and military strategy of the United States, especially at a time of war, and she would be serving under a president with some health problems who will soon be in his mid seventies. This not only takes much of McCain's "experience" argument away but also calls his judgment into serious question. The Obama campaign will make hay on this. I feel this part of McCain's reasoning is one big-time mistake, not only politically but also concerning the best interests of the country.

We come now to McCain's biggest reason for choosing Palin, the fact that she is a woman. This may have been his greatest miscalculation of all. As the Democratic Convention drew near the McCain campaign did everything it could to try to stoke resentment among Hillary Clinton's supporters. Then came her strong speech and husband Bill's, endorsing Obama. Any lingering disaffection appeared to evaporate as Sen. Clinton herself took the floor and moved Obama's nomination by acclamation. McCain was obviously still going after these women with today's announcement. In her remarks Governor Palin even made direct appeals to Hillary supporters, referring to her by name and cribbing her "glass ceilings" line.

But will Hillary Clinton Democratic women switch to a Republican conservative who is anti-choice? That seems hard to imagine. CNN commentator David Gergen reported on the air that the network's site was being inundated with an overwhelmingly negative influx of e-mails from women who considered the blatant play for their support by a woman who shares virtually none of Hillary's viewpoints "insulting." Time will tell, but this does not look good for McCain.

Finally, more than anything else McCain's decision revealed his gambler's nature and his assessment that his campaign is in trouble. He felt he needed a game changer to shake up the race. This is anything but a safe pick. It is very high risk, both for the election and for the country if he wins. He decided the experience mantra couldn't win in a change year and that the maverick appellation wasn't getting sufficient traction. He has now definitely underscored his maverick credentials. We'll see whether the American voter gives him points for being bold or punishes him for recklessness. I expect it to be more of the latter.