A Reason to Believe

Back in 1964, 76% of Americans surveyed said they trusted their government. The figure these days is 26%. Once upon a time most Americans felt sure their children would be better off than they were. Today only 34% think so. An average of 62% of Americans voted in the three presidential elections of 1952, 1956 and 1960. An average of 52% have done so in the last three. Why does there seem to be so much pessimism, cynicism and apathy? Are Americans turning into a nation of whiners?

No, I'd contend they are reacting rationally to the facts on the ground. Americans are gloomy because they have reason to be. They are pessimistic because their living standards and sense of security have been slipping for 35 years. They are cynical because their leaders have repeatedly lied to them and fed them a steady diet of unfulfilled promises. They are growing apathetic because no one seems able to rectify the problems that assail them. This has been building for a long time.

That's why there is such excitement about Barack Obama and a longing for change. It's not confidence. If there was a great deal of confidence in him he would be leading by a huge margin. There is, instead, hope. It is hope born of a growing sense that the conventional isn't working, that something novel and unconventional must be tried. When business as usual produces failure as usual it is rational to want to change course. The choice for many this year is truly hope against fear, the hope that Obama can break the nation out of its rut versus the fear that he might not be ready or capable.

Few seriously believe that John McCain represents the kind of transformational change that will get the world back on our side, balance the budget, bring back industrial jobs, save people's homes, make sure they have health insurance or inspire a renaissance in educational achievement. But he is an old hand with a great deal of congressional experience. He is the defensive choice. He may not make things much better, but at least he may not make them much worse.

Given Obama's lack of a long record, there is less certainty about how he would operate. But his upsides include a correct assessment of what the problems are, a fresh approach to attacking them, and perhaps an ability to spark younger Americans to make the kind of effort their resolution will require. We overcame the Great Depression, won World War II, put men on the moon and led the computer revolution because we believed we could. Because we did, the American people supported committing the resources and made the efforts and sacrifices necessary to succeed. And because they did succeed, confidence in their ability to handle any challenge and in their goverment to properly marshall them soared. Success bred success.

Then came one disillusionment after another. The assassination of beloved leaders. The long and divisive Vietnam War. Watergate. Oil embargoes. Plant closings. Budget deficits. Crime. Drugs. The bursting of the tech bubble. Terrorism. Iraq. Global warming. Erosion of the Constitution. Hyperpartisanship and a new raft of scandals. The middle and working class falling farther and farther behind. The American people have become pretty cynical, but they want to believe again. This November we shall see if they can bring themselves to dare to do so.