What's at Stake in Indiana and North Carolina

As we turn the corner into the last weekend before the Indiana and North Carolina primaries it's time to step back and see what's at stake for the two Democratic hopefuls.

First, the situation: According to Real Clear Politics Barack Obama has 1738 delegates and Hillary Clinton has 1600. Indiana's primary awards 72 delegates and North Carolina's 115. 279 superdelegates remain uncommitted. If Clinton were to win both states by 10 points she would gain about 19 on Obama's lead, whittling it down to 119.

Looking ahead, Kentucky and West Virginia look solid for Clinton. Oregon, Montana and South Dakota look strong for Obama. The smart money says Puerto Rico will go to Clinton. If Hillary wins all her states 60-40 and ties in the presumed Obama states she will catch up by another 17. That would still leave Obama with a 102-delegate lead. To overcome that she would have to take the superdelegates 191-88, or 68.5% of them. What should be obvious is that she has no chance of gaining the lead in pledged delegates. Her strategy must be to trounce Obama so convincingly that he appears to be a sinking ship at the end of the primary battles, figuring the supers will abandon the vessel to prevent electoral catastrophe in November. That is her only hope.

Three things can happen this Tuesday. The first is that Obama could win both. That would effectively end the Clinton campaign. The second is that they could split, each winning one. That would keep Obama in good shape, holding steady as time runs out. The third is that Clinton could win both. That would keep her very much in the contest. If she were to win both, superdelegates would freeze in anticipation of the next rounds. She would continue her momentum with a likely win in West Virginia on May 13. If she were to then take both Kentucky as expected and Oregon in an upset on May 20 the pledged delegate count would no longer matter. Losing two states heretofore considered safe, Obama would appear mortally wounded and the supers would begin flocking to her side.

Perceptions matter and the superdelegates are the wild card. The Democratic Party wants one thing above all else-to win in November-and the superdelegates are the core of the Party's leadership. Yes, Hillary Clinton still has a chance. All she has to do is run the table.