The Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee made fair and equitable rulings on the allocation of delegates for Florida and Michigan today. How Hillary Clinton and her supporters react will determine Barack Obama's prospects against John McCain in 2008 and her own prospects in 2012 or 2016.
To penalize the two states for moving their primaries ahead of the schedule the party set, the Committee cut the votes of both delegations in half. That is the same penalty the Republican Party imposed on the two states in its primaries. Florida will still send 172 pledged delegates and Florida 128 to the convention in Denver, but each delegate will only be able to cast one-half of a vote. This is a reasonable compromise, which is why both parties came to the same decision.
For Florida, the Committee approximated the voting results in parceling out the delegates. Clinton took 50% to Obama's 30% there, in a race in which neither candidate campaigned. Clinton will take 52.5 votes to the convention and Obama 33.5.
Michigan presented a more difficult choice, since Obama withdrew his name from the ballot after the DNC and both candidates agreed its vote would not count. Clinton's name stayed on the ballot, and she received 55% of the vote there to 40% for "Uncommitted." The committee decided to follow the Michigan Democratic Party's recommendation to consider the anti-Clinton votes as votes for Obama, and apportioned 34.5 votes for Clinton and 29.5 for Obama.
The day's deliberations produced 87 delegate votes for Clinton and 63 for Obama, a net gain of 24 for the New York Senator. Obama has 2051 and Clinton 1875, including superdelegates who have declared their support for a candidate. 2118 delegates will now be required for a majority at the convention, so Obama needs 67 more and Clinton needs 243.
86 delegates are at stake in the last three contests in Puerto Rico (55), Montana (16) and South Dakota (15). If Clinton does extremely well, say a 70% win in Puerto Rico, a narrow win in South Dakota and a close loss in Montana, she could pick up 54 delegates to Obama's 32 this week. That would put him at 2083 and her at 1929. So, even if Clinton has the best imaginable week at the polls Obama will need the support of only 35 of the remaining 179 superdelegates to secure the nomination. His nomination is about as certain as anything can be in politics.
Party leaders Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and Howard Dean are busy pressing the superdelegates to declare their intentions as soon as possible after Tuesday's votes in order to avoid a prolonged and divisive fight leading up to the convention. The upshot is that Obama ought to be able to declare victory within a week of the last balloting, around June 18. That's where it gets very sticky.
Clinton spokesman Harold Ickes spoke strongly at the end of today's committee meeting about her votes being "hijacked." He informed the committee, "Mrs. Clinton has instructed me to reserve her right to take this to the Credentials Committee." The Credentials Committee meets at the convention. The meeting had been frequently disrupted by angry shouts and chanting from Clinton supporters.
If she follows this course, claims the nomination was stolen from her, conducts a desperate fight at the convention and polarizes her followers against Obama's cause he will surely lose to McCain in November. That is completely within her power to bring about.
But if she does so, or fails to enthusiastically endorse him once he has the nomination in hand, she will be blamed by millions of Democrats for fracturing the party and costing the election. In that case she would also destroy any possibility for herself of becoming the party's standard bearer in 2012 if Obama loses or 2016 if he wins. She obviously wants to be president very badly, and knows that in 2016 she will be 68, three years younger than John McCain is now. That is why, unless I miss my guess, she will close ranks and endorse Obama soon after the voting ends.
1 comment:
Now that the conclusion is foregone, let's hope Hillary and her supporters can take a step back and remember why this election is perhaps the most important since 1932. America needs to make major and serious course corrections after eight catastrophic years of Bush leadership.
At the end of such a close-run primary campaign, emotions are naturally high, and disappointment is inevitable for the loser. But the Democratic primary race is a side-show, a warm-up. Neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama are the main issue. It is getting a Democratic Administration in office in 2009. Hillary's supporters will surely come around to this focus once their grieving process works itself out.
Post a Comment