North Carolina and Indiana Predictions

It's the night before the North Carolina and Indiana primaries, so I'll polish up my crystal ball and take a stab at predicting the primary results. It looks as though it will be a split decision to me. Barack Obama will win North Carolina and Hillary Clinton will prevail in Indiana.

Obama will take North Carolina with 52.7% of the vote, besting Clinton's 47.3% This 5.4% win will get Obama 60 delegates to Clinton's 55. Obama is running ahead by about 7% as an average of several polls. The undecideds have begun to break to the candidates now, and the split appears to be about even. Some 7% still haven't made up their minds, and based on the results of previous states we can expect the majority of last-minute deciders to go for Clinton. One interesting figure is that 13% of the ballots have already been cast in "early voting" through the mail. North Carolina is a closed primary, so only Democrats vote in the Obama-Clinton contest. That helps Clinton a bit, since Obama does better with independents, and will keep his margin relatively small. Still, a win is a win, and a victory here for the senator from Illinois will prevent Clinton from developing game-changing momentum.

Clinton will take Indiana with 54% of the vote to Obama's 46%. This 8% victory will give her 39 delegates to Obama's 33. Clinton's lead in an average of recent polls stands at 5%. As the fence-sitters come to a decision, roughly 60% of them will go for Hillary. Both candidates are trending upward as the undecided pool shrinks, with Obama beginning to eat a bit into the Clinton lead. But this will be offset by Indiana's wide-open rules that allow independents and even Republicans to cast their ballots in the Democratic race. I feel enough will do so, and most for Clinton, to up her final edge to the 8% margin predicted above.

The candidates themselves have shown how they think this will play out. Obama is holding his election night rally in Raleigh while Clinton has booked hers in Indianapolis. There is no better indicator of the outcomes than these choices. No one wants to schedule a televised appearance where their supporters will be down after a loss.

The delegate count currently stands at Obama 1747, Clinton 1608. This includes both pledged delegates and announced superdelegates. Just today Obama gathered in four more supers to Clinton's none. He now trails in that count 271-256. The bottom line results of the two May 6 contests will see Clinton gaining 94 pledged convention delegates to Obama's 93. The net gain of one for Clinton will reduce her overall deficit to 138. She will trail 1840 to 1692. And with time running out, that is not good enough.

But fortunately for her, next up is West Virginia in one week on Tuesday the 13th. In what ought to be one of her strongest states, Clinton will again try to make the case that this race is not yet over.