Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton played to their strengths again today, each easily winning a state favorable to their customary base of support. Clinton romped in Kentucky, 65%-30% and Obama rolled in Oregon, 58%-42%. Both results were about 3% more one-sided than predicted.
With these results, Obama crosses the threshold of securing the majority of pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses. Superdelegates have also been trickling his way, and he now holds a 20-vote lead among those who have declared their intentions. Tomorrow's figures should show Obama with 1959 total delegates to Clinton's 1780.
Still to be decided are 212 undeclared superdelegates and 86 pledged delegates to be won in the final contests of Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota. For Clinton to get the nomination she needs 246 of the 298 outstanding votes. That is better than 80%, and it isn't going to happen. It has been calculated that even if Michigan's and Florida's nullified results were counted the way Clinton would like, she would still need 65% of the remaining delegates to win. That isn't going to happen, either.
The big question now is how this race will be ended. In her Louisville victory speech, Clinton vowed to fiercely carry on the fight, but also said the Democratic Party must unify behind the nominee whether she or Obama wins. She made no sharp attacks against Obama. She then made her case for the nomination, clearly with an eye on the superdelegates. She claimed to have a lead in popular vote and to have won in states where a Democrat must prevail to win in the general election.
The popular vote claim is only valid if you include Michigan, where Obama's name was not on the ballot, and do not count the estimates of the popular vote equivalent in several caucus states. Her stronger case is the second, about electability. She hopes that almost all the unannounced superdelegates will conclude Obama cannot win in November and that she can. To do that they would have to vote against the candidate who has won the majority of pledged delegates, an unlikely scenario.
Obama, speaking in Des Moines to highlight his closing in on the nomination in the state whose caucuses launched his prospects, was extremely gracious to Clinton. He credited her with, "shattering myths, breaking barriers and changing the world for my daughters." He then turned his fire on John McCain for echoing the "failed policies of President Bush" and delivered his prescriptions for change on a number of issues. Obama is clearly trying to give Clinton a dignified way out, trying to court her supporters, and trying to touch off the general campaign against the Republicans, what the pros call "pivoting." He definitely has cause for concern. Exit polls in Kentucky show 40% of the Clinton voters there say they will not vote for Obama in November.
At this point, Obama's November prospects mostly depend on how Clinton manages the end game of this race. If there is a bloody fight at the May 31 credentials committee meeting over Michigan and Florida, if she resumes attacking him personally or if she vows to take matters to the convention in August after Montana and South Dakota wrap things up on June 3, she could sabotage Obama's chances against McCain. The threat of her doing any of these things could be used to force him to include her on the ticket, if that is what she wants.
But on the other hand, if Obama were to lose to McCain and Clinton is seen to be largely responsible, it would forever alienate much of the Democratic Party against her. She would do better to be a team player and try to help him win. If he were to lose she would have a decent shot at the nomination in four years. If he were to win, another run for her in eight years would not be out of the question.
It will be fascinating to see how she proceeds. The next two and a half weeks will tell the story. Oh, one more thing. Obama's plane left Iowa tonight. Next stop? Florida.
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