The average of recent national polls between President Barack Obama and former Governor Mitt Romney has the president ahead by four percent. However, the national vote doesn't mean anything in an American presidential election. What matters are the separate elections in each of the fifty states and the District of Columbia. The winner of each state will win its electoral vote (EV), a number equal to the size of the state's congressional delegation, which includes the number of its members in the House of Representatives, plus its two Senators. (D.C. gets three votes, the same as the smallest states.)
The total number of EVs at stake in the election is 538, and it will take 270 to win. In this Electoral College election there are only eight states that really matter in 2012, and you will see the candidates and their running mates returning to them time and again in the next five and a half weeks. Their residents will also be bombarded with broadcast advertising.
The reason only eight states matter from here on is that 42 of the 50 states, along with Washington, D.C., are already safely in one or the other candidate's columns. Obama has comfortable leads in 19 states plus D.C. worth a total of 247 EVs. Romney has sewed up 23 states worth 191 EVs. That leaves eight closely contested states worth exactly 100 EVs that are still up for grabs. To win reelection Obama needs 23 of these remaining 100 EVs. To unseat him Romney needs 79 of them. This makes it clear that Obama has much the easier task. Here are the close states and the pertinent statistics.
West
Colorado (9 EV) Obama leads in recent polls by an average of 3 percent.
Nevada (6 EV) Obama is ahead by 4.
Midwest
Ohio (18 EV) Obama leads by 5.
Iowa (6 EV) Obama is up by 4.
East
New Hampshire (4 EV) has Obama ahead by 3.
South
Florida (29 EV) Obama leads by 3.
North Carolina (15 EV) Obama is up by a slim 1 percent.
Virginia (13 EV) Obama is ahead by 4.
All these states are close but you will notice that Obama leads in every one of them. He can win the election by winning Florida alone, even if he loses the other seven. Winning Ohio and any other state bigger than New Hampshire would also reelect the president. Or he could take North Carolina and Virginia, or North Carolina and Colorado, Virginia and any two other states, in short, anything that adds up to 23 or more. He has many paths to victory.
Romney, on the other hand, has less margin for error. He has to win Florida, and more or less has to win Ohio too. (If Romney loses Ohio and New Hampshire but wins the other six both candidates would wind up with 269 EVs. The tie would be settled by the House of Representatives.) In any case, Romney has to keep Obama from winning any combination of these states adding up to 23 EVs or more.
Now you know what to look for in the coming weeks. You can play around with the arithmetic yourself and try out the various combinations. And remember, a survey that tells who is leading in Iowa, Colorado or any of these states is a lot more important than one indicating who has the most votes nationwide.
2 comments:
The time for the electoral college to go was 100 years ago. It's an antiquated system that makes some votes more important than other votes. In reality, it doesn't matter how I vote, since my state is so safe.
Yet, if I were to move to Ohio, all of a sudden, my vote becomes so much more important. That's wrong, in my opinion.
You are cmpletely right and I could not agree with you more strongly!
See my 2007 post about the Electoral College, "Democracy Denied" by clicking on "2007" or clicking on the label "Electoral College."
Neither candidate will pay the slightest attention to about 40 of the 50 states for the rest of the campaign. It's a travesty of democracy.
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