Seven Weeks, Seven States

With 55 days to go the election contest is shaping up as a cliffhanger. While there are always daily developments, including the latest revelations and the charges and counter charges that may lead to swings of momentum, the basic state by state fundamentals have gelled. Mostly gone are the overly optimistic hopes that Obama could compete in Georgia and Montana, or that McCain could put Iowa and Oregon in play. What it boils down to is this: seven states will decide whether Barack Obama or John McCain will be the 44th President of the United States.

Based on the Real Clear Politics averages of state polls, which you can find here, Barack Obama has leads of 5.1 percent or better in 17 states plus the District of Columbia for a total of 217 solid electoral votes. He has leads of three to five percent in two other states (Pennsylvania and New Hampshire) worth 25 electoral votes. That gives him a pretty solid claim on 242 electoral votes of the 270 needed to win.

John McCain has leads of 5.1 percent or more in 22 states totalling 186 electoral votes. He holds three to five percent leads in two others (Indiana and North Dakota) worth 14. This adds up to an even 200 electoral votes that look pretty safe for him.

Therefore, absent a massive groundswell that would carry the nation away in one direction or the other, all that's left are seven states comprising 96 electoral votes that are still effectively up for grabs. If Obama is to win, he needs to garner 28 of these 96. McCain needs to corral 70 of them. That's what it all boils down to. So which states are these, and how are they trending?

Three of the seven are leaning toward Obama. These are Michigan (17 EV) where Obama leads in the average of recent polls by 2.0%, Colorado, 9 EV and 1.0% and New Mexico, 5 EV and 2.3%. If Obama can hold onto his narrow leads in all three places he will come in with 273 electoral votes-three more than needed for election.

Four of the seven are leaning McCain's way. These are Florida, 27 EV and a 3.0% lead, Ohio, 20 EV and 1.3%, Virginia, 13 EV and 2.6% and Nevada, 5 EV and 1.0%. By taking all four McCain would finish Election Night with 265 electoral votes, five short of victory. To win he could hang on to all four and take one of Obama's three away from him.

There are other possibilities, too. If McCain were to win Michigan, for instance, he could afford to lose Nevada and still win with a tally of 277. There is even a real potential for an Electoral College tie. If McCain were to win Michigan and Obama take Virginia, for instance, both would wind up with 269. In that case the Constitution directs that the election would be decided by the House of Representatives with each of the fifty states having one vote. Talk about a political nightmare!

Watch for the candidates to increasingly concentrate their appearances and ads on these seven states, perhaps expanded to include Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Indiana and Missouri or North Dakota in the next two months. And on election night, don't be surprised if it comes down to every network and global news service glued to the returns coming in from Carson City, Nevada, population 54,939, to learn who will take Nevada and thereby become the next President of the United States.