Last week the McCain-Palin ticket seemed to have grabbed the edge in the national race; now Obama-Biden looks to have regained it. What are the reasons? Is this just a blip in the horse race, or is it a portent for the weeks ahead?
Obama had maintained a rather consistent lead in the three to four percent range for quite some time. Coming out of the Democratic Convention, Obama enjoyed his biggest lead on September 2, when his aggregate margin (the average of national polls conducted at or near that date) rose to 6.4%. That was the first full day of the Republican Convention. McCain began eating into that lead during his convention September 3-5 and seized the lead on September 7. He held it until the 16th, enjoying his biggest aggregate margin on September 8 at 2.9%. The 17th was a national tie and today the 18th Obama re-established a 1.9% lead. You can peruse the data here.
Both campaigns got bounces out of their conventions, especially McCain's. Obama added at most 4% to the lead with which he entered his convention. McCain erased that and garnered nearly an additional 3% lead, for a total bounce of 7%.
At the Democratic Convention, the restoration of peace with the Clintons and a passing of the torch from Ted Kennedy did a good job of clearing the decks for Obama and unifying the faithful. The institutional party speakers relentlessly hammered home the theme of Republican misgovernance and tied McCain to it by highlighting his usual support for President Bush's policies. Obama's choice of Joe Biden for Vice President was a reassuring one. That left Obama free to do what he does best, and he did not disappoint with a scintillating acceptance speech highlighting vision, empathy and solutions at Invesco Mile High Stadium.
At the Republican Convention the emphasis was on biography. Speaker after speaker referenced McCain's record of service and sacrifice and belittled Obama's by comparison. McCain's stunning pick of the little-known Sarah Palin for his running mate was initially greeted with incredulity and then caught fire, especially with the social conservative base. McCain's own acceptance speech was a fine compendium of his life and views, and may have been seen by even more nationwide television viewers than Obama's a week before. The restoration of enthusiasm in the Republican base energized the entire campaign and together with added support for Palin among undecided women it rapidly assumed a narrow lead.
Yet now things are moving back the other way. Why is that?
One reason is the Palin bloom faded some. The novelty wore off. While her combative style delighted the base it also drove up her negatives. Next, her frequent pattern of stretching or ignoring the truth began to attract attention. Finally, when she finally began giving interviews her ignorance on a number of topics began raising the same kind of questions about competence and experience that had greeted her selection in the first place.
Second, McCain may have gone too negative too soon himself. Numerous low blows, smears and deceptions coming from the candidate, the campaign and it advertisements seem to have backfired to some extent, especially when Obama responded quickly and forcefully, but not in kind. For its part, the press proved reasonably diligent in pointing out the erroneous material, thus putting the McCain campaign back on the defensive.
That set the stage for the third blow in the triple whammy, more disastrous news on the economic/financial front. When the economy assumes top importance McCain is on his weakest ground and the Democrats on their strongest. This is both because of his identification with the party in power and also because the anti-regulatory stance he shares with the unpopular Bush Administration is widely regarded as an important factor in the subprime and derivatives meltdowns.
In all likelihood the economy will not get appreciably better between now and election day, and may get a lot worse as new revelations surface about more companies and even the financial structure itself. Thus the overall dynamics of the race still favor Obama. There will be vicissitudes but the field of play ought to keep Obama in the lead from here on out.
It will be the McCain campaign's job to see that doesn't happen. Opportunity one comes on Friday the 26th when the first debate between the principals takes place at 9:00 P.M. Eastern Time. Since it will focus on foreign policy, McCain's strongest issue set in the eyes of the public, it gives McCain his best chance to demonstrate superiority over his rival.
Wild card events could also intervene. A major terrorist attack might play to McCain's advantage. So might the capture or killing of Osama bin Laden. An unexpected upturn in the economy could work to his benefit. Sarah Palin could favorably surprise if she holds her own in the Vice Presidential debate with Joe Biden. The expectations for her will certainly be low enough against the veteran Senator to make that a possibility.
But suppose McCain is unable to make defense the top issue and none of the wild cards materialize. In that case we can expect him to return to character attacks on Obama and the normal Republican red meat cultural differences appeals he was beginning to make before the dreadful economic news took the spotlight. Everyone will have to run on change this year, but he cannot do it as convincingly as Obama. His economic views are virtually identical to Bush's. He likes to threaten the military option in foreign affairs at a time when the majority of the country is rather tired of that.
In short, if the election is about "what," McCain probably can't win. If it's about "who" he has a chance. My feeling is he will eventually have nowhere else to go but to try to paint Obama as incompetent, scary, or "not enough like us" to be president. It will get nasty and it may be close, but he will in all likelihood succumb to the massive surge in Democratic voter registration the country has seen in 2008. As of now the smart money is back on Obama to ride this hand to victory on November 4.
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