Polls Show Obama Widening Lead

A spate of five polls released Tuesday all tell the same story: the Democratic ticket of Obama and Biden is currently surging back into a strong nationwide lead. The average of the five surveys has the Democrats up by 7.6%.

Obama led in all five polls. The results were: Gallup Tracking 50-42 (+8), Rasmussen Tracking 51-45 (+6), USA Today/Gallup 50-43 (+7), Hotline 48-39 (+9) and CBS News 48-40 (+8). Tracking polls are an average of polling done by telephone over a three-day period. The similar results obtained in so many reputable polls at the same time constitute convincing evidence to insiders that the findings are valid.

The Democratic Convention appears to have consolidated the party vote. Obama-Biden now has the support of 85% of Democrats, up from 80% before the Denver gathering. This has almost erased McCain's intraparty advantage of having 86% support among Republicans. The Democrats' unity theme, including strong endorsements from Bill and Hillary Clinton, seems to have paid off.

On the other hand, the fallout from John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate looks to have damaged the Republican ticket in its first days. The tracking polls show McCain losing one or two points in the initial days after the Palin announcement and Obama gaining one or two.

Obama went into his convention on August 25 with a dwindling average lead in the polls of only 2.5%. After he delivered his acceptance speech on the 28th his average lead rose to 6%. Then in the three days since the Palin announcement the Democratic ticket picked up another 1.6%.

It is most important for the McCain-Palin campaign to calm misgivings about the Alaska Governor among independents and get a "bounce" coming out of St. Paul. Her addition to the ticket has, by most accounts, played quite well with the Republican social conservative base. That McCain is still losing support and Obama gaining is an indication of how poorly she may be playing with other groups.

Great stakes thus ride for the Republican campaign on Palin's address to the convention Wednesday night. She has to pass the smell test as someone who could conceivably occupy the president's chair if McCain is unable to complete a term in office. If the Republican duo doesn't leave Minnesota within three or four points of the Democrats their chances do not look good.