What Obama Needs to Do

Barack Obama has succeeded brilliantly in galvanizing young people and upscale white voters behind his banner. His messages of change and post or bi partisanship resonate strongly with these groups. He has also had uncommon success among independent voters in states where they are allowed to participate in Democratic primaries. The size and rapturous enthusiasm of his audiences are testament to these appeals.

But his electoral performances in large cosmopoplitan states also evince serious shortcomings that point up major deficiencies in his coalition. The results should sound an alarm bell to his campaign and lead to some fundamental modifications to his approach, for if they are not addressed properly they will make it very difficult for him to win a general election in November.

Put simply, "Needs Voters" do not seem to be so enamored with Obama. He does quite poorly with Latinos, senior citizens and working class whites. These are all groups who are feeling the pinch of a hostile economy, sinking health care system and rising prices. Obama's overarching paeans to transcendent principles do not reach them. They want to know whose policies will offer them direct benefit and relief. Hillary Clinton, whose speeches bulge with 10-point policy plans on a host of specific bread and butter issues, and whose slogan "Solutions" stands as counterpoint to his "Change," blows him away by at least two to one with all these groups.

To people in need of help right now, Obama is young, relatively inexperienced and black. None of those appellations work to his benefit with a majority of the American people. And if he does not change the dynamic, he could wind up limping into the convention with a shrinking pledged delegate lead on the heels of a set of rather demoralizing losses. If there is any way he can still lose the nomination, that would be it.

Obama therefore needs to begin making some inroads into the Needs Voter blocs. This requires a concerted effort to focus more on the meat in his policy proposals. There is a great deal of it in the issues section of his website, and most of his proposals are not significantly different from Clinton's. He can do this in his own personal appearances and his campaign should orchestrate it among his surrogates.

He need not drop his big picture and charismatic appeals to do so. He just needs to give the Democratic core some substantive reassurance. "What are you going to do for me? What is your plan? Why should I think you understand people like me? What shows me you care?" The answers to these questions are what they want to hear from Obama, and unless they hear them, 2/3 of these voters will continue to vote for Clinton in the primaries and a painful proportion will defect to John McCain in the general.

Obama has said he will work now on "fine tuning" his message. He needs to get right on it. He has no time to lose.