The Pennsylvania primary is finally here. It has been six weeks since Barack Obama captured Mississippi and Wyoming and seven since Hillary Clinton kept her campaign afloat by winning Ohio and the popular vote in Texas. The April 22 vote in Pennsylvania offers Obama yet another chance to permanently derail the Clinton train, but it also gives Clinton the chance to make her case that she is still viable and the better choice for the general election in November.
What it Means: Obama, already leading by around 140 delegates according to most counts, can effectively end Clinton's campaign with a win in Pennsylvania. Claiming the majority of the Keystone State's 158 delegates would make it mathematically impossible for her to catch up in pledged delegates, would swamp her momentum and would illustrate flagging support for her continuing in the race. Clinton had a 20-point lead here in February, and to lose after holding such an initial lead in a state whose demographics are favorable to her (a large white working-class vote) would be devastating. If Obama wins by even one vote Clinton's candidacy will be finished.
If Clinton wins, the meaning will depend on the margin of her victory. A very narrow 1 to 4 percent win will work to Obama's favor, showing that she has not been able to cut into his delegate lead. His nomination will become even more probable. A moderate win of 5 to 9 percent will keep things status quo. It would not be enough to significantly help her in the delegate contest and would keep Obama's odds of capturing the nomination at 90%. A Clinton win of 10 to 13 percent would make things pretty interesting and might cause some uncommitted superdelegates to think hard about voting for Clinton at the convention. If Hillary wins in a blowout of 14 percent or more all bets are off. Although she would need a 20-point win to make the pledged delegate progress she needs to, this margin would give her a chance to catch Obama in the overall popular vote and would send shivers up the spines of the superdelegates weighing who can win the state in November against John McCain. She would have, once again, a real shot at the nomination.
What the Polls Say: The average of the recent polls have Clinton with a 5 to 6 percent lead. This squares with what knowledgeable Pennsylvania political reporters see on the ground. Unaffiliated poltical observers say the same thing. If the real results deviate much from this it will be a surprise.
What to Look For: If you watch the coverage of the returns come in, pay attention to which areas are reporting first. Politically, Pennsylvania has been described as a large capital "T." The southeast is dominated by Philadelphia and the southwest by Pittsburgh. It is in these areas that Obama will be strong. Philadelphia is 50% black, for instance. The south central, central and northern tier of the state, the "T" itself, is more rural and small town and Clinton will predominate there. Obama must pile up big numbers in the two great cities. He needs to win by 250,000 in Philly and maybe another 100,000 in Pittsburgh. Clinton needs to carry the T by 2-1 to offset Obama's urban power.
Another thing to look for is turnout. The state's Democratic registration has grown by over 300,000 this year, and an estimated 62% of the new voters are Obama partisans. Clinton's backers, being older, traditionally vote more often than the younger people who tend to be enthusiastic for Obama. If turnout is huge Obama will win. If it's moderate or less Clinton will win.
Age and gender are the final things to look for. 45 is the crux of the age gap. Clinton wins those older and Obama those younger. If the 29 and under vote is 25% or more of the total, things are looking good for Obama. It will mean the young people are getting to the polls, as in Iowa and Wisconsin. If women and senior citizens are out in big numbers, as in New Hampshire and Tennessee, it looks good for Clinton. White men are the big wild card. Polls show them evenly split between the two candidates. The election could well turn on which way they break at the last minute.
What Will Happen: I like to say there's nothing harder to predict than the future. But if I had to bet the farm I'd put my money on the idea that the polls and pols are right this time, and that Hillary will win by 5-6%. A big Obama get-out-the-vote effort could conceivably change that, but this time the Clinton team has had plenty of time to arrange its voter turnout strategy too. Clinton will take a moderately narrow victory and her campaign will slog on, hoping for a political miracle to strike.
2 comments:
Slog on. That's a good term for it.
Slog - to continue to fight when it's not in the best interests of your party to fight on.
Yes, it could be dangerous to the party in November. Clinton's attacks on Obama (perhaps helped by some of his own missteps) seem to be hardening some of her supporters against him, as Pa. exit polling seems to show.
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