Somewhat lost in the glare of the presidential race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is the upcoming battle for control of the U.S. Senate. Democrats appear to have a strong chance to gain the upper hand. Republicans currently enjoy a 54-46 majority in the chamber. If, as seems increasingly likely, Clinton wins the White House, Democrats would need only a 50-50 tie to secure control. That's because the constitution directs that the Vice President serves as the official President of the Senate and that he casts the decisive vote in the event of a tie. So to wrest control away the Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats this year.
The importance of the Senate to the next president cannot be overestimated. The Senate votes whether to confirm ambassadors, cabinet secretaries and all judicial appointments, for instance. With even a tie in the Senate, a new President Hillary Clinton could easily fill the existing and any future vacancies on the Supreme Court so long as the Democrats stayed unified. So, what are the prospects of the Democrats gaining four Senate seats on November 8? Here are the races to watch.
It looks as though 8 seats of the 34 up for a vote are in play this year with the potential to change parties. Seven Senate seats presently held by Republicans are vulnerable and one seat held by a Democrat is vulnerable. The three Republican seats facing the toughest challenges are Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana. The GOP is almost certain to lose all three. In Illinois Tammy Duckworth has a 9.6% polling edge on Republican incumbent Mark Kirk. Projections wizard Nate Silver (his website is 538.com) gives Duckworth an 89% chance of winning. In Wisconsin former Senator Russ Feingold (D) leads Sen. Ron Johnson (R) by 6.9% for the job Johnson took away from him in 2010. That advantage this late in the game gives Feingold an 88% chance of victory, according to 538. The Indiana race has former Sen. Evan Bayh (D) up by 3.1% in the polls over Todd Young (R), nominated by the GOP to hold the seat being vacated by the retiring Daniel Coats. Nate Silver gives Bayh a 66% probability of winning.
There are two other Republican-held Senate seats, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, where Democrats are leading, albeit by smaller margins. Democrat Katie McGinty leads Republican incumbent Pat Toomey by 1.3% in the polling averages in Pennsylvania. FiveThirtyEight gives McGinty a 60% likelihood of making Pennsylvania the Democrats' fourth Senate pickup. In New Hampshire, Governor Maggie Hassan (D) leads Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) by 0.8%. That small edge is enough for Nate Silver to credit Hassan with a 55% probability of victory.
There are two other GOP-held seats where a minuscule Republican lead gives Democrats a chance for a take-away. In North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr (R) is trying to hold off Deborah Ross. He's leading in the polls by 0.7% and Silver gives Ross a 44% chance. Missouri is also tight. Roy Blunt (R) is trying to retain his job against Jason Kander (D). Blunt's average lead in recent polls is 1.1%. FiveThirtyEight rates this one as 56-44 for Blunt.
Then there is one Democratic Senate seat they are in danger of losing to a Republican. Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid is retiring in Nevada. Catherine Cortez-Masto is trying to hold the seat for the Dems; Joe Heck is trying to gain it for the Reps. Heck has a 0.5% lead in the polls, but Nate Silver rates the race as 53-47 Cortez-Masto, probably on the strength of the Hillary Clinton and Harry Reid's impressive get-out-the-vote operation in Nevada.
So, the bottom line is the Democrats need a net pickup of four seats if Clinton is President to control the Senate. They would need to gain five if Trump wins. Watch New Hampshire and North Carolina early on election night. If Dems are doing well it will portend a change in control of the Senate. If the GOP holds in those two swing seats they may well be able to retain a bare edge in the chamber and thwart Clinton's judicial preferences. What are the overall chances? Nate's FiveThirtyEight number crunchers give the Democrats a 65.2% likelihood of taking control.
No comments:
Post a Comment