What do Democrats need to do to hold on to their majority in the U.S. Senate this year? Much of the national political speculation for 2014 centers on whether Republicans will be able to gain a majority. The present membership includes 53 Democrats and 2 independents who caucus with them, versus 45 Republicans. The Reps therefore need a pickup of 6 seats to swing the upper chamber (a 50-50 split favors the Dems, since Vice President Joe Biden can cast a deciding vote in case of ties.) The map below shows the national field this year.
Here's what the map means: Dark red are Republicans running for re-election. Pink are Republican-held seats in which the incumbent is retiring. Dark blue are Democratic senators running for re-election, and light blue are Democratic seats in which the incumbent is retiring. Of the 36 seats up for election this year, 21 are held by Democrats and 15 by Republicans. The bottom line is that the Democrats are vulnerable since they have more seats at risk than the Republicans, and because quite a few of these are in conservative states. I'll get into some state-by-state analysis on this in a later post, but right now I want to suggest a framework for a national appeal.
That appeal would focus on highlighting the difference between what the Democrats and Republicans have been standing on and voting for in the past few years. A vague sense of impatience with the pace of economic recovery and a sharper frustration with gridlock in Washington is working against the Democrats as the incumbent party. But an effective appeal would highlight the idea that Democrats have been promoting policies the people actually want, and that Republican obstruction is the reason they aren't getting passed. An appeal to the voters ought to go something like this:
Republicans oppose raising the minimum wage. They think $14,500 a year for full time work, an income that qualifies you for food stamps, is too much. Do you agree? Really? Republicans have voted to repeal health care 50 times. You're going to vote to take health care away from 15 million people who now have it? Really? They even shut down the entire government over it. Do you feel that was a pretty smart move? The Republican budget passed in the House caps Medicare and turns it into a voucher program. Is that something you would like to see in place when you retire? Republicans have voted against every bill to require equal pay for a woman doing the same job with the same performance review as a man. You're going to vote for that? Really? Republicans still stand opposed to marriage equality for gays and lesbians. They've been fighting it for years. Are you going to vote against that? Now? Really? Republicans won't even bring the immigration reform that's passed the Senate up for a vote in the House. Are you for keeping 11 million people in legal limbo in our country, for denying U.S. veterans a path to citizenship, for keeping our agriculture from procuring legal labor, and for making it difficult for America to retain the foreign students who earn advanced degrees at our universities? And Republicans blocked sensible legislation to require background checks to make sure felons, terrorists and the violently mentally ill can't walk into a gun show and buy an assault rifle. After all the mayhem and mass shootings in our country over the past few years, do you think that's in the best interest of the safety of the American people? Do you really?
This isn't theoretical. It's not just rhetoric. These are all demonstrated positions the Republicans have not only advocated, but actually voted for. Is this the America you want to live in? Really?
No comments:
Post a Comment