The race between Barack Obama and John McCain is often touted as a new kind of contest that will overturn much conventional political wisdom and most of the recent electoral models. I do not really see that happening. While there will be a few twists unique to this year's election, the basics of the race will remain within the normal pattern for a Democrat v. a Republican.
The reason things will mainly follow the conventional dynamics is because even though both candidates talk a lot about bipartisanship and have even engaged in some of it, both Obama and McCain adhere to their basic party lines on most issues. Obama is a liberal Democrat. McCain is a conservative Republican. The mass of voters in strongly conservative states is not going to abandon McCain for Obama. The mass of voters in liberal states is not going to defect from Obama and go to McCain.
The basic dynamics in play since 1964 still hold true in 2008. Conventionally, Democrats stress diplomacy and want to avoid military conflict. They feel individual rights need not be seriously compromised in pursuit of defense goals. They defend abortion and other gender equity rights. They are very sensitive to minority issues and support government action to foster more widespread opportunity. They are strongly concerned with the environment. They feel everyone should have access to health care and think the government should take care of this if the private system does not. They are suspicious of corporations and believe the public interest requires that they be closely watched. They tend to favor labor over management. They prioritize providing services over keeping taxes low. They are not averse to using law and government power to make business adopt what they feel are more socially productive and responsible practices on issues such as environment, energy, safety, and so on. They don't like privatizing government services.
Where in all this does Obama diverge from the liberal norm? The answer, of course, is nowhere. He doesn't. His Senate voting record rates over 90% with feminist, minority, environmental, consumer, civil liberties and labor groups. Utah and Texas are not suddenly going to vote for Obama the Democrat.
On the other hand, Republicans adopt a much harder line on defense issues. They tend to feel that threatening would-be international adversaries with military force is a good way to handle them. They tend to believe defense exigencies may require accepting some diminution of personal rights. They oppose abortion rights and have little inclination for government action to advance gender equity or minority concerns. The environment is not a particularly high priority, especially if preserving it may involve economic costs. They believe the economic marketplace provides most of the incentives to assure equal opportunity. They mistrust labor and feel government should help business run things the way it wants, and not averse to writing laws to advance that view. They prioritize keeping taxes low over fully funding services. They feel market solutions will provide whatever energy, health, safety, and environmental changes are needed. They are eager to privatize government services.
Where does McCain part company with these views? The answer, for him too, is nowhere. Some might say the environment, yet his rating by the League of Conservation Voters is only 26%. And while that is higher than many other Republicans, do not expect him to be named the 2008 "man of the year" by the Sierra Club. He has voted with the Bush Administration 95% of the time over the past four years, including changing his positions to the more conservative ones on such issues as taxes, constitutional rights and immigration. Massachusetts and California are not going to be voting for McCain the Republican this year.
There certainly are particular conditions this year that will affect voters' decisions. Obama does have a special appeal to younger people, and a higher than normal appeal to African-Americans, a group that votes nearly 90% Democratic anyway. But his race will also work against him, as McCain's age will also work against him. And the worse the economy is doing the better it will be for Obama. But on the whole, things will come down once again to the verdicts of about a dozen swing states in the first week of November. That pattern will form the structural basis for the election, just as it has for the past forty years.
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