Barack Obama would be better off not picking Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential running mate. There is no end to the trouble it would cause him.
Hillary Clinton wants to be president herself, and very badly. Everything she would do as running mate and then as veep would be dissected by the media with that in mind. "Is Hillary undermining Barack today for her own interests?" would be the question on cable channels and in print all the time.
Hillary is a star. It's a bad idea to select a running mate who can upstage you. Many would wonder whether Barack or Hillary was in charge. It needs to be clear who is running the show, and in the minds of many it never would be with both of them in the mix.
What would they do with husband Bill? He seems to have lost a fair amount of the deft political touch he had as president. They might try to manage him, but how exactly does one do that with a former president? And is that the kind of thing a new administration can afford to spend time and energy doing? Bill gets the spotlight whenever he wants it, and he seems to want it quite a bit. This has train wreck written all over it.
Obama's core supporters don't really want her because her presence detracts from his message of making a change from the past. A CBS News survey reports 76% of Hillary's supporters would like to see her as running mate but only 44% of Obama's would.
Obama will be seen as weak if he names her. When Hillary let word out to the New York congressional delegation yesterday that she would be open to the vice presidency, that was all well and good. But today when three of her surrogates made the media circuit talking it up and two more of her confidantes started "draft Hillary for veep" movements, she went too far. One doesn't campaign publicly for the vice presidential nomination. It smacks of putting pressure on the nominee. If he gives in it will appear he cannot stand up to that pressure. There is no surer way to lose an election for commander in chief than to give seem weak in the face of pressure.
And finally, he doesn't need her to win the election. Now this one is obviously debatable, but the same poll finds that as of today 63% of Hillary voters say they would vote for Obama, 22% say they wouldn't and 11% aren't sure. Mind you, these are the numbers the day after the last primary, when Hillary has yet to even publicly concede the race and when disappointment among her backers is at its peak.
In the days ahead Obama will continue to praise her. Clinton will concede and give a ringing endorsement. She will do that because she agrees with practically everything Obama stands for. She will also do that because she has to if she wants any chance at the nomination in 2012 or 2016. John McCain will chip in and do his part by continuing to champion positions that are anathema to the overwhelming majority of Hillary Clinton Democrats. That 22% figure will consequently go down, probably to less than half of where it stands now. The CBS survey shows Obama leading McCain nationally by 6% right now, even with 22% of Hillary backers saying they will jump ship for McCain. When half or more of them get back on board, Obama's position will be strong indeed.
Barack Obama ought to do the wise thing and choose somebody else to be his running mate.
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