Why Conservative Thinking Doesn’t Work: Part 1

     The historical record is quite clear. When conservative policies are followed the results severely under perform the times when liberal policies are followed. That's a big part of the reason I'm a liberal. Conservative prescriptions have produced greater income inequality, social inequality and legal inequality. As I pointed out on February 17, when it comes to the economy they have also consistently produced poorer growth, unemployment and inflation numbers than when liberal approaches are adopted. Today I'll begin a four-part series on the basic reasons conservative thinking doesn't work. I'll start with an example.

      During the Great Depression President Herbert Hoover’s limousine would often pass families of destitute people begging, holding signs up pleading for work, trying to sell pencils on street corners or camped out in public parks. He reportedly was personally moved by their plight.  More than once he gave of his own personal funds to needy individuals and families, sometimes in person and other times through third parties. Over the objections of his staff, Hoover always refused to let his gifts be publicized in the press.  

     Yet despite these impulses, he refused to consider any form of public, governmental action to help them. With millions facing starvation, private philanthropy and the kind act of a wealthy person here and there were simply unequal to the task. The compassion in his heart notwithstanding, President Hoover’s response to the economic emergency of his presidency was an utter failure. The man who had gotten relief aid to the people of Belgium after World War I and to American flood victims as Commerce Secretary in the 1920s would not countenance engaging the resources of the United States government in his official capacity as president to alleviate the desperate condition of the American people in their hour of greatest need. 

     Hoover was bitterly reviled by the destitute Americans of his time; their shantytowns and homeless encampments came to be called “Hoovervilles.” Running for re-election, he was subsequently thrown out of office by the largest electoral margin of any incumbent president and spent the rest of his long life as a figure of mockery and derision among his fellow citizens.             

     The Hoover presidency stands as the greatest object lesson in why conservative thinking doesn’t work. The most basic and fundamental reason conservative thinking doesn’t work is because it puts ideology ahead of people. The second most common reason conservative thinking doesn’t work is because it so often puts ideology ahead of fact. And the third reason conservative thinking doesn’t work is because it puts ideology ahead of public opinion.

See the Movie "McFarland USA"

Joan and I saw the Disney film "McFarland USA" today. I highly recommend it. It's a feel good film of the kind Disney has always excelled at, the story of underdogs succeeding in the face of heavy obstacles. But it's also more. It's based on the true and almost unbelievable real-life case of Davids beating Goliaths, and it also offers a marvelously authentic look into a culture we have come to know since moving to the San Jaoquin Valley sixteen years ago.

McFarland was a poverty-stricken hamlet of less than 7,000 people in 1987 when Jim White showed up to teach high school science. Over 90% Latino, most of the residents scratched out a living picking crops in the fields. White saw kids who literally had to run miles from sunrise fieldwork to school and then back again after the last bell. He got the idea of starting a cross country (long-distance running) team and became its coach with no prior experience. Due to the kids' incredible toughness and White's facility for relating to Mexican-American culture, he went on to lead tiny McFarland to nine California state cross country championships in 14 years. The effort had remarkable effects beyond athletics; none of the seven members who formed the initial team had a single relative who had gone beyond ninth grade. All seven went to college, some even to the college where I teach. The tradition persists, too: our College of the Sequoias cross country team remains one of the state's best.

Beyond that, I hope a lot of people will see it to get a better picture of the Latino culture we have come to know and love here in our area. As you might expect, the showing we viewed was packed here in Visalia, but there are many who are unaware of some of the truths of Latino culture and continue to spread pejorative stereotypes. It would help the rest of American society to see the phenomenal work ethic, strong family ties and deep love of these admirable Americans, people who share a combination of pride and humility which is difficult to describe. I saw much about my own students reflected in this film, and I hope you get a chance to see it too.  

      

Climate Change Denier "Scientist" on Industry Payroll

Years ago the tobacco industry funded "researchers" who generated "studies" to show the evidence was still inconclusive on the harmful effects of smoking. This fed their narrative that nothing ought to be done until more "conclusive" results were available. It has long been suspected that the fossil fuel industry has been operating the same way regarding greenhouse gas accumulations and the rising temperature of the atmosphere. Now there's proof.

It turns out a prominent global warming "skeptic," often quoted by conservative politicians and pundits, has been paid $1.2 million by oil industry sources, including the Koch brothers. Wie-Hock (Willie) Soon, an aerospace engineer and part-time employee at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, has published 11 papers since 2008 claiming that the sun is heating up and that is the main cause of earth's warming climate. The Nobel Prize-winning U.N. International Panel on Climate Change has studied the data and finds changes in the sun account for less than one percent of the effect of greenhouse gases.

Soon's papers were published without mention of this funding, in violation of academic ethics guidelines. The facts came out thanks to a Freedom of Information request by the environmental group Greenpeace. In communications with his corporate paymasters Soon even referred to his writings for them as "deliverables."

     

Record is Clear: Economy Thrives Under Democratic Governance

Democrats need to do a better job of touting their economic record. If the American people knew the truth about the effectiveness of the two parties in office it's hard to see how the GOP would win many elections. Let’s compare the economic results of the past 80-plus years under Republican and Democratic administrations. First, the Republicans. From Hoover to George W. Bush Republican administrations produced an anemic average growth rate of only 1.68% a year, with an unemployment rate of 7.3% and an average inflation rate of 3.9%.* Under the Democrats from Roosevelt to Obama economic growth averaged 5.1% a year, unemployment averaged 7.2% and inflation averaged 3.4%.  The Democrats, the more liberal party, outperformed the Republicans, the more conservative party, in all three areas, as you can graphically see in the figures below.  

All Administrations, 1929-2014, including the Great Depression.

                        Years      Growth  Unemployment  Inflation

Republicans       40        1.68%           7.3%            3.9%*

Democrats         46         5.07%           7.2%            3.4%

But what if we exclude the Great Depression as an anomaly? Even without Hoover, the other 36 years under GOP control from Eisenhower to George W. Bush have produced the following stats: an average growth rate of 2.53%, unemployment rate of 6.1%, and inflation rate of 3.9 %. If you don’t count the first four years of Roosevelt’s time in office, when the country was digging out from under massive unemployment figures accumulated by his Republican predecessor, the Democrats averaged a 4.22% growth rate (and remember, we’re not counting the excellent growth rates Roosevelt compiled in the New Deal years) with only 5.1% unemployment and a lower 3.7% inflation rate than under the Republicans. Put another way, for the last 73 years, the economy has grown 68.8% faster and unemployment has been 19.6% lower when a Democrat ran the country. Whichever way you slice it, liberal policies have produced consistently and decisively better results for the American people over a very lengthy period of time. The figures below make it clear.   

Administrations, 1942-2014, not including the Great Depression.

                          Growth            Unemployment           Inflation

Republicans       2.53%                    6.1%                       3.9%

Democrats          4.22%                   5.1%                       3.7%

Top Republican 2016 Contenders

It looks as though there may be a very large field of Republican presidential aspirants for the 2016 nomination. Quite a few will be able to make headlines and five or six could win primaries or caucuses in particular states. Much could happen to change existing dynamics, such as devastating gaffes or disqualifying revelations. But at this early stage I feel there are only two to really watch: Jeb Bush and Scott Walker.

Bush has name recognition, family political organization and a nearly inexhaustible fundraising network going for him. The former Florida governor (1999-2007) can point to executive experience outside of Washington, which in the world of Republican politics could help make this dynastic insider an appealing "outsider" in the minds of GOP primary voters. The money angle is a very powerful determinant in Republican primary politics. Mitt Romney had that advantage in 2012 and used it to bury Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum in negative ads on his way to the nomination that year. This time, it was the realization that the big money was going for Bush that led to Romney's abrupt abandonment of his developing third White House run. 

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is the challenger most likely to wrest the nomination away from Bush, if anyone can. Walker has three things going for him that make him very attractive to the base GOP primary voter. First, he's won three elections in a normally Democratic state. He was elected governor in 2010, survived a recall attempt in 2012 and was re-elected in 2014. Second, the recall took place over his success in gutting union rights in his state, another feather in his cap to conservatives. And third, he subscribes to the full range of conservative social issues positions on things like abortion, contraception, marriage equality and voting restrictions.  While he may not have pockets quite as deep as Bush, Walker is a major favorite of the Koch machine, and their resources are plenty.

All kinds of potential candidates will certainly make things interesting on the Republican side. Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz and even Ben Carson have their followings. But in my early handicapping, Bush and Walker are the ones to watch. Bush is the preeminent establishment candidate, with positioning suited to the national electorate and great resources to back up his run. Walker has the resources to compete and though less well-positioned for the general election voter, is dearer to the heart of the typical Republican primary electorate. Watch the polls to see how this starts shaking out. Bush is ahead in the early national surveys, while Walker has gained an early lead in New Hampshire.   

Measles Outbreak Exposes "Anti-Vax" Lunacy

When I was a kid I got the measles. It seemed like a natural part of life; just about everybody got the "childhood diseases" like measles and chicken pox. It was considered unavoidable. My mother actually told me years later that she intentionally exposed me to chicken pox when I was a toddler under the reasoning that everybody got these viruses sooner or later, and it was better to get it over with as a child than catch them when you were older when they might affect you worse. I never considered something like measles serious; as far as I knew it was discomforting for about a week and that was it.

Little did I know the truth. The World Health Organization reports that "before widespread vaccination began in 1980, 2.6 million people a year died from measles. About 400 people a day still do." That's about 145,000 a year. Dead from measles. I had no idea.

The last known native case of measles, according to the US Center for Disease Control, happened in the year 2000. Other cases since were always of unvaccinated foreigners. Humans are the only host for the measles virus and the vaccine is 100% effective. There was genuine hope of eradicating this sometimes lethal disease that is known as probably the most contagious of all viruses, so communicable that a single sneeze can leave pathogens in the air that will linger for up to two hours.

We now have a resurgence of measles in America that started at Disneyland in Anaheim and has, as of yesterday, spread to 84 victims in 14 states. This was completely preventable and is completely outrageous. It can only be happening because "anti-vax" parents are purposely keeping their kids from getting protected from a potentially lethal disease. There is absolutely no evidence to substantiate any of the imagined claims of a link between vaccinations and autism or any other negative health condition. As PhD microbiologist Alex Berezow wrote today, such parents have "blood on their hands" and should "go to jail." I agree. Reckless endangerment is reckless endangerment, whether it entails leaving a kid in a hot car or leaving them exposed to germs that want to kill them. As Berezow says, "It is time to end this insanity."        

Obama Makes Strong State of the Union Speech

I enjoyed President Obama's sixth State of the Union Address tonight. He began by making a convincing case that we've turned the economic corner as a nation and are definitely in strong recovery. He wasn't bashful about taking credit for the improvement despite constant predictions of doom from the Republicans. The U.S has produced more jobs, over 11 million, the past five years that Europe, Japan and the rest of the advanced world combined. We add more solar capacity every three weeks than existed in the U.S. in 2008, are less dependent on foreign oil than at any time in the past 30 years, and the low price of oil is a windfall to the American consumer. Millions have health care who didn't and health cost growth is the lowest in decades. It was a strong vindication of his course.

He had a long list of policy plans, almost all of them liberal: affordable child care, equal pay for women, sick leave for all workers, free community college, generous student loan refinancing, massive infrastructure construction, medical research, net neutrality, tax reform to close loopholes and incentives to offshore jobs, increased tax child credits for the middle class, and minimum wage hikes, to name a few.

In foreign affairs he spoke often of using a range of techniques beyond military, though he wanted a use of force authorization from congress vs. ISIS, or ISIL. He pointed out the effectiveness of diplomacy and sanctions against Iran and Russia, whose economies are "in tatters." Our former policy of Cuba was "long past its expiration date." "When you've been doin' the same thing for fifty years and it's not working it's time to make a change," he explained.

The President evoked the speech and appeal that brought him to the attention of the nation, saying he still believes we are not a red and blue America but one United States of America. He pledged his commitment to work together with Republicans on everything upon which they can can find common ground. "I still believe we are one people, that together we can do great things," he said. Of partisan bickering, he remarked, "Imagine if we broke out of these tired old patterns."

But he made clear he's through sitting around waiting for them to act. On Cuba, Iran, immigration, climate change and Guantanamo, for instance, he made it quite clear he will act where he can himself if congress won't work with him to craft bills he can sign. Not having to run another campaign has liberated Obama to take actions he feels are right regardless of politics. A humorous moment came when he began one paragraph, "I've run my last campaign..." At that, Republicans began to applaud. He shot them a bemused look, and continued, "I know because I won them both." The GOP fell silent as the Democrats roared.