Top Republican 2016 Contenders

It looks as though there may be a very large field of Republican presidential aspirants for the 2016 nomination. Quite a few will be able to make headlines and five or six could win primaries or caucuses in particular states. Much could happen to change existing dynamics, such as devastating gaffes or disqualifying revelations. But at this early stage I feel there are only two to really watch: Jeb Bush and Scott Walker.

Bush has name recognition, family political organization and a nearly inexhaustible fundraising network going for him. The former Florida governor (1999-2007) can point to executive experience outside of Washington, which in the world of Republican politics could help make this dynastic insider an appealing "outsider" in the minds of GOP primary voters. The money angle is a very powerful determinant in Republican primary politics. Mitt Romney had that advantage in 2012 and used it to bury Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum in negative ads on his way to the nomination that year. This time, it was the realization that the big money was going for Bush that led to Romney's abrupt abandonment of his developing third White House run. 

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is the challenger most likely to wrest the nomination away from Bush, if anyone can. Walker has three things going for him that make him very attractive to the base GOP primary voter. First, he's won three elections in a normally Democratic state. He was elected governor in 2010, survived a recall attempt in 2012 and was re-elected in 2014. Second, the recall took place over his success in gutting union rights in his state, another feather in his cap to conservatives. And third, he subscribes to the full range of conservative social issues positions on things like abortion, contraception, marriage equality and voting restrictions.  While he may not have pockets quite as deep as Bush, Walker is a major favorite of the Koch machine, and their resources are plenty.

All kinds of potential candidates will certainly make things interesting on the Republican side. Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz and even Ben Carson have their followings. But in my early handicapping, Bush and Walker are the ones to watch. Bush is the preeminent establishment candidate, with positioning suited to the national electorate and great resources to back up his run. Walker has the resources to compete and though less well-positioned for the general election voter, is dearer to the heart of the typical Republican primary electorate. Watch the polls to see how this starts shaking out. Bush is ahead in the early national surveys, while Walker has gained an early lead in New Hampshire.