We Have a Granddaughter!

It is my joy to share with you the birth of our first grandchild! Katherine Belle Jahelka was born at 5:51 P.M. on July 3, 2016 in San Diego to our daughter Marie and son-in-law Robert Jahelka. Katherine weighed 7 pounds, 1 ounce and was 18 1/2 inches long. She has a full head of hair and is still sporting her baby blue eyes.

Here she is, stylishly taking it easy in her matching cap, onesie and booties on her color-coordinated crib sheet.

Joan and I have been fortunate to be able to be down here in San Diego helping with meals, shopping and housekeeping so Marie and Robert can deal with the rigors of every-three-hour feedings while trying to snatch sleep two hours at a time. Marie's big sister Jeanette has been pitching in too, making meals. Robert's mom Marcia has been able to help on weekends and Robert's dad kept their Sheltie Link for several days to remove that care from their minds.

        Here are Joan and I holding Katherine in the hospital July 4, the day after she was born.

It is a pleasure to share our blessings with you. This little miracle is already changing our lives!

Two Public Appearances This Week

I'll be making two public appearances this week in the San Diego area. At both I'll be sharing the findings and perspectives of my book, Liberally Speaking: Why Liberalism is Right for America. The first is tomorrow night, Monday July 11 to the Rancho Penasquitos Democratic Club. President Octavio Aguilar extended the invitation when he found I would be in the area for the later appearance this week. The PQ club meets at 7:00 P.M. at the Shay Realtor Community Hub, 13289 Black Mountain Road #6, Rancho Penasquitos, CA 92129.

If you are in the area and can't make that one, I'll also be appearing on Thursday the 15th at the Poway Democratic Club meeting. The Poway Club meets at the Mainstream Bar and Grill, 13385 Poway Road. The meeting starts at 7:00 but everyone is invited to arrive at 6:00 for dinner and social hour. My thanks to President Pete Babich for this invitation. Both presentations will include a Powerpoint with time for some questions and answers afterward. Signed books will be on sale for $19.95 plus tax at the conclusion of the presentation.

First 2016 Presidential Vote Forecast is Good News for Clinton

Democrats should take heart at the first comprehensive analysis of the 2016 presidential race by election prognosticator par excellence Nate Silver: Hillary Clinton has about an 80% chance of winning, he says. This is delivered, of course, with the essential warning that it's still very early at four months out, and no one should be counting any chickens yet. Go to his full article here. 

The current model, based on polling alone, has Clinton ahead in the popular vote 48.8% to 42.0% for Donald Trump, with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson currently at 7.9%. The state map has Clinton with 348 electoral votes to Trump's 190. Battleground states where the lead is relatively close shape up this way. Clinton is ahead in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and New Hampshire. Trump has the edge in Missouri, Arizona and Georgia. The statistical probability of a Clinton election is 79.2%, for a Trump win is 20.7%. You can go to Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com site and play with his election maps here.

Silver's "Polls Plus" model gives Trump a slightly higher chance for an upset. This calculation goes beyond current polls to add in historical data such as the effect of a two-term president of one party not seeking re-election, and the present economic conditions under those circumstances. This calculation gives Clinton a 73.3% chance compared to Trump's 26.6%. The electoral vote probability in this scenario has Clinton at 316 and Trump at 222. The chief switches are to put North Carolina in the Republican column and pull Arizona and Georgia out of near tossups and assign them "lean Republican" status.

Silver's statistical wizardry is legendary. He correctly called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states for the 2008 election, and forecast all 50 states correctly in 2012.