It's time for our weekly look-in at the 2016 presidential races. Big wins in New York by the two front runners, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, are the key development this week. The key question is whether this translates into nomination gold for them. We'll look first at the Democrats and then the Republicans.
Democrats
Hillary Clinton's 16-point 58 to 42 percent win over Bernie Sanders gave her a delegate edge of 139 to 106 in the Empire State. That lengthens her delegate lead by 33 in the race for the nomination. In the overall count of pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses she now has 1428 to his 1151. There are 1472 pledged delegates left to win in the states that haven't voted yet. A total of 2026 secures the majority, so Hillary would need 598 of those, about 40.5%. Bernie would have to win 875, about 59.5%. He'd have to win the remaining contests by an average of 19 points to overtake Hillary. Is that possible?
To find out, let's look at what's coming up in next Tuesday's votes. Five Northeastern states will be in play on April 26, all holding primaries. All Democratic contests award delegates proportionally to the vote. So, does the Bern look to have a good chance to do some catching up? Well, if the polls are anything close to accurate, not so much. Pennsylvania is the big prize, 189 delegates. Hillary leads there by 16 points in the average of recent polling. Maryland offers 95 delegates, with Hillary up by 21. Connecticut has 55 and Hillary leads there by an average of 7. Then you have two small states with only one recent poll in each. Rhode Island has 24 delegates and the one survey there had Clinton up by 9. Delaware will send 21 delegates to the convention in Philadelphia, and the one poll taken there this month showed Hillary ahead by 7. If these polls are right, and most recent polling this primary season has had good accuracy, the former Secretary of State will win 219 delegates next Tuesday and the Vermont Senator will pick up 165. That means another 54 added to Clinton's lead.
So it's looking more and more that the Democratic nomination is effectively wrapped up. After those results next Tuesday, Sanders would have to win all the remaining races by an average of almost 30 points to catch up in pledged delegates. And if you add in the super delegates it's even more certain. Hillary has the support of 502 to Bernie's 38, with 172 still undeclared. With them counted into the mix Bernie would need a whopping 72 percent of all the still unchosen delegates to win at the convention. The bottom line? It's all over but the shouting. Hillary Clinton is the 2016 Democratic nominee.
Republicans
On the GOP side the main question is whether Donald Trump can clinch the nomination on the first ballot of the Cleveland convention. After taking 60 percent of the vote in his home state to 25 for John Kasich and 15 for Ted Cruz, Trump walked away with 89 delegates to Kasich's 3. He now has 845, followed by Cruz with 559, Marco Rubio, who has suspended his campaign, with 171, and Kasich with 148. Trump needs 1237 for a first-ballot convention triumph and there are 674 Republican delegates still to be awarded in the upcoming states. That means The Donald would need to get 392 of them, a little over 58 percent. Is that doable? Well, it looks like it's going to be very close one way or the other. He could just make it or could fall just short. Complicating matters are the varied and sometimes bizarre delegate selection formulas used by Republican parties in the different states.
Here's how things stand in the five April 26 Republican primaries. Pennsylvania has 71 delegates and the polls say Trump 44, Cruz 25, Kasich 24. Maryland gets 38 and the race is similar to Pennsylvania's, Trump 41, Kasich 26 and Cruz 25. Connecticut, 28 delegates, has Trump at 49, Kasich 27 and Cruz 18. Then come Rhode Island and Delaware, with only one poll each, as with the Dems. RI has 19 delegates and the one poll from February gave Trump 43 with Cruz and 10 and Kasich at 14. Rubio had 25 percent support back then. Delaware has 16 delegates and the one April poll showed a big lead for Trump: 55 to 18 for Kasich and 15 for Cruz. In terms of delegates, as near as I can figure given the different rules in play in each state, Trump stands to win 71 delegates, Cruz 12 and Kasich 18.
Then there are 54 delegates to be elected in Pennsylvania's 18 congressional districts, three per district, who are winner take all by district, but who are not bound to vote for the winning candidate of their district once they get to the convention. Talk about strange. Depending on who those delegates are and how they are selected, they could vote for anybody even if Trump wins their district. And judging from the polling there, one would expect Trump to win most of those districts. But GOP insiders do not have much love for Trump, so who knows what they might do if Trump's campaign apparatus can't insure their supporters occupy those seats. If they can, Trump would come away with 105 delegates next Tuesday to Cruz's 22 and Kasich's 28.That would leave Trump at 950 delegates, needing 287 more to get to the magic number with 539 still to be elected in the remaining states. That outcome would bring Trump's needed percentage to clinch down to 53.2%, seemingly a doable feat, especially considering he is running 9 points ahead in delegate-rich California, which awards most of its delegates to congressional district winners on a winner-take all basis. But if the insider game denies him those votes, he would need 63 percent of the rest of the unchosen delegates to win on the first ballot in Cleveland, a much taller order. The bottom line on the Republican side is that it's nip and tuck and could go either way. It should be pretty dramatic to watch.
Thursday, April 21, 2016
Thursday, April 14, 2016
Roosevelt Gala
Last Saturday night was a wonderful event for me, the annual Roosevelt Gala. Named for the groundbreaking liberal Democratic President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the Gala honors those who have made a positive and progressive difference in the community over the past year. It is also the major annual fundraising event for the grassroots-driven Tulare County Political Action Committee. This year was especially meaningful for me, as I was given the Vanguard Award as someone who is on the leading edge of positive change in the community. I was told by one of the organizers that the award I received was motivated by my mentorship of the College of the Sequoias Young Democrats Club and the publication of my book, Liberally Speaking, which was explicitly written to challenge the conservative-dominated media and power structure.
It was particularly gratifying to have my lovely wife Joan, our daughter Jeanette, and my dear sister Sue Ruth and her husband Kevin with us. Family, friends, and my wonderful colleagues at work, filled four complete tables of eight in attendance to support me. Thanks to the generosity of Visalia attorney Victor Moheno and 22nd Congressional District Democratic candidate Louie Campos, 16 COS Young Democrats from our club were also able to attend. Special thanks also go to my Young Democrats co-advisor Amy Pritchett. She and her husband Nick also sponsored an entire table.
Hope Patrick-Garcia opened the program with a rendition of the national anthem that may be the finest I have ever heard. President Pro Tem of the California State Senate Kevin De Leon was the keynote speaker, and he delivered a real barn-burner. I couldn't help thinking that this is a man to watch for statewide office or U.S. Senator in the future. Gage Navarro, a young local man who has appeared on the TV program "The Voice" performed marvelously during dinner. In addition to my award, Dr. Robert Aguilar and ACT for Women and Girls received the Activists of the Year Awards, and Victor Moheno received the Lifetime Achievement Award. It was a memorable evening, and a great honor to receive this recognition. My highest praise goes to Abigail Solis, Tom Chamberlin, Louie Campos and Mike Maldonado for organizing this wonderful event.
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| With Senator De Leon, Organizers and Awardees |
It was particularly gratifying to have my lovely wife Joan, our daughter Jeanette, and my dear sister Sue Ruth and her husband Kevin with us. Family, friends, and my wonderful colleagues at work, filled four complete tables of eight in attendance to support me. Thanks to the generosity of Visalia attorney Victor Moheno and 22nd Congressional District Democratic candidate Louie Campos, 16 COS Young Democrats from our club were also able to attend. Special thanks also go to my Young Democrats co-advisor Amy Pritchett. She and her husband Nick also sponsored an entire table.
Hope Patrick-Garcia opened the program with a rendition of the national anthem that may be the finest I have ever heard. President Pro Tem of the California State Senate Kevin De Leon was the keynote speaker, and he delivered a real barn-burner. I couldn't help thinking that this is a man to watch for statewide office or U.S. Senator in the future. Gage Navarro, a young local man who has appeared on the TV program "The Voice" performed marvelously during dinner. In addition to my award, Dr. Robert Aguilar and ACT for Women and Girls received the Activists of the Year Awards, and Victor Moheno received the Lifetime Achievement Award. It was a memorable evening, and a great honor to receive this recognition. My highest praise goes to Abigail Solis, Tom Chamberlin, Louie Campos and Mike Maldonado for organizing this wonderful event.
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| With COS Young Democrats |
Friday, April 8, 2016
Can Sanders Catch Clinton?
Can Bernie Sanders catch Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination? Today's analysis points up both the difficulties and the possibilities.
The starting point is the delegate contest. At the end of the day the candidate with a majority of delegates at the convention will be nominee. No amount of hype or spin can diminish that reality. Up to now Hillary Clinton has won 1280 pledged delegates in the primaries and caucuses so far. Bernie Sanders has won 1030. There are 3964 pledged delegates to be won in all the contests. So a majority is 1983. There are 18 states and two territories still to vote, with 1661 delegates at stake. According to Democratic Party rules, they will be allotted proportionally, so that in each contest if a candidate wins 55% of the vote they will get 55% of the delegates at stake. That means Secretary Clinton still needs 703 of those 1661, or 42.3% of them. Starting with 1030, Senator Sanders needs 953 of the 1661 still out there, or 57.4%, to wind up with the majority. That means Bernie needs to win all the remaining states by an average of 15.1% to get ahead of Hillary in the pledged delegate count. That's a really tall order. His latest win, Wisconsin, was regarded as a decisive victory. Yet even there he came away with 55.8% of the 86 delegates up for grabs. That's below the percentage he needs from here on out.
And then there are the superdelegates to consider. The Democrats give convention votes to 712 nationwide party officials, such as congress members, governors, and mayors of large cities. 500 of these have committed to a candidate so far, and 469 of those have declared for Mrs. Clinton. Only 31 have come out for Bernie Sanders. So with the supers added in, that ups the convention delegate total to 4,763, with 2382 needed for a majority and the nomination. With her 469 superdelegates Hillary actually has 1749 delegate votes in hand. Adding his 31 supers, the Bern has 1061. That changes the calculation quite a bit. Clinton needs 633 more delegates to get from 1749 to 2382, and that's only 32.4% of the combination of pledged delegates and uncommitted superdelegates left. Sanders would have to get 1321 of them, or 67.6% of those still to be won. That's a real mountain, and probably outside the bounds of what is realistically achievable. In other words, by either the pledged delegates alone, or certainly with the superdelegates thrown in, Bernie's chances are a real longshot and highly improbable.
So the Sanders campaign has hit upon another strategy, and it could conceivably work. Their thinking is that if the Vermonter can continue to pull off a string of primary victories, especially in the big important states like New York, Pennsylvania and California, he can convince Clinton supers that she is fading and flip many who have said they are for Clinton over to his cause. So, what are the chances of that? Well, Sanders still has work to do. There is recent polling out in four important upcoming states. New York votes on April 19, with 247 delegates to win. (Election poll sourcing.) The last three polls there have Clinton ahead by 12, 10 and 18 points. Pennsylvania chooses 189 delegates on April 26, and the three most recent polls have Clinton ahead by 25, 22 and 6. Maryland awards 95 delegates on the same day, with Clinton up by 15 in the only recent poll taken there. California and its massive delegation of 475 delegates will be decided on June 7. The last four recent surveys there have Clinton ahead by 7, 11, 14 and 6.
The upshot is that the numbers heavily favor Hillary Clinton. Bernie Sanders, to win, has to come from behind in all these states by strong margins, strong enough to shake the majority of superdelegates so that they defect to his side. If I were handicapping odds I'd put Hillary Clinton's chances at better than 80% of being the Democratic nominee. Can Sanders win? It is not likely, but it is possible, but only if the Democratic electorate from here on out decides it wants to support him in a pretty overwhelming way.
The starting point is the delegate contest. At the end of the day the candidate with a majority of delegates at the convention will be nominee. No amount of hype or spin can diminish that reality. Up to now Hillary Clinton has won 1280 pledged delegates in the primaries and caucuses so far. Bernie Sanders has won 1030. There are 3964 pledged delegates to be won in all the contests. So a majority is 1983. There are 18 states and two territories still to vote, with 1661 delegates at stake. According to Democratic Party rules, they will be allotted proportionally, so that in each contest if a candidate wins 55% of the vote they will get 55% of the delegates at stake. That means Secretary Clinton still needs 703 of those 1661, or 42.3% of them. Starting with 1030, Senator Sanders needs 953 of the 1661 still out there, or 57.4%, to wind up with the majority. That means Bernie needs to win all the remaining states by an average of 15.1% to get ahead of Hillary in the pledged delegate count. That's a really tall order. His latest win, Wisconsin, was regarded as a decisive victory. Yet even there he came away with 55.8% of the 86 delegates up for grabs. That's below the percentage he needs from here on out.
And then there are the superdelegates to consider. The Democrats give convention votes to 712 nationwide party officials, such as congress members, governors, and mayors of large cities. 500 of these have committed to a candidate so far, and 469 of those have declared for Mrs. Clinton. Only 31 have come out for Bernie Sanders. So with the supers added in, that ups the convention delegate total to 4,763, with 2382 needed for a majority and the nomination. With her 469 superdelegates Hillary actually has 1749 delegate votes in hand. Adding his 31 supers, the Bern has 1061. That changes the calculation quite a bit. Clinton needs 633 more delegates to get from 1749 to 2382, and that's only 32.4% of the combination of pledged delegates and uncommitted superdelegates left. Sanders would have to get 1321 of them, or 67.6% of those still to be won. That's a real mountain, and probably outside the bounds of what is realistically achievable. In other words, by either the pledged delegates alone, or certainly with the superdelegates thrown in, Bernie's chances are a real longshot and highly improbable.
So the Sanders campaign has hit upon another strategy, and it could conceivably work. Their thinking is that if the Vermonter can continue to pull off a string of primary victories, especially in the big important states like New York, Pennsylvania and California, he can convince Clinton supers that she is fading and flip many who have said they are for Clinton over to his cause. So, what are the chances of that? Well, Sanders still has work to do. There is recent polling out in four important upcoming states. New York votes on April 19, with 247 delegates to win. (Election poll sourcing.) The last three polls there have Clinton ahead by 12, 10 and 18 points. Pennsylvania chooses 189 delegates on April 26, and the three most recent polls have Clinton ahead by 25, 22 and 6. Maryland awards 95 delegates on the same day, with Clinton up by 15 in the only recent poll taken there. California and its massive delegation of 475 delegates will be decided on June 7. The last four recent surveys there have Clinton ahead by 7, 11, 14 and 6.
The upshot is that the numbers heavily favor Hillary Clinton. Bernie Sanders, to win, has to come from behind in all these states by strong margins, strong enough to shake the majority of superdelegates so that they defect to his side. If I were handicapping odds I'd put Hillary Clinton's chances at better than 80% of being the Democratic nominee. Can Sanders win? It is not likely, but it is possible, but only if the Democratic electorate from here on out decides it wants to support him in a pretty overwhelming way.
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