Tomorrow is election day and control of the U.S. Senate is at stake. I'll explain the lay of the land in this post. The basic facts are that the Democrats have 53 Senators plus two independents, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine who caucus with them. So the effective makeup of the Senate is a 55-45 Democratic majority. That means Republicans need a net gain of 6 seats to become the Senate majority party. A net gain of 5 isn't enough, since in the event of an even 50-50 split the Constitution gives the Vice President (Democrat Joe Biden, in this case) the right to cast the tie-breaking vote. The Democrats have 21 seats to defend compared to 15 for the Republicans, and a lot of the seats up are in red (read Republican) states.
Democrats seem pretty certain to lose three seats they currently hold in strongly Republican states. Those include West Virginia, where Jay Rockefeller is retiring, Montana, where Max Baucus is retiring, and Arkansas, where Mark Pryor appears to be running too far behind in the polls to catch up to challenger Tom Cotton. Another seat Democrats had high hopes for was Kentucky, where Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was looking vulnerable. The momentum has now shifted back in his direction and it looks like he's going to win after all. If Republicans get the gains they need he will become the Majority Leader in January.
There are three other states in which Democrats hold narrow leads, and to have any chance of holding the senate they have to win all three. These include North Carolina, New Hampshire and Kansas. In North Carolina incumbent Kay Hagan is running barely ahead and in New Hampshire Jean Shaheen is in the same situation. Kansas is a rather unusual case in which Republican incumbent Pat Roberts has inspired resentment by ignoring his constituents for a long time. In that race Independent Greg Orman is running slightly ahead. So if you're tuning in to watch the returns, pay early attention to New Hampshire and North Carolina. If Republicans win in either or both it's going to be a bad night for Democrats.
So, assuming the Dems win in the three must-have states, to defend their Senate majority they must also win two of another five races where polling shows the Republican candidate has a narrow lead. These five races are in Colorado, Alaska, Iowa, Georgia and Louisiana. Incumbent Democrats are trying to hang on in Colorado (Mark Udall), Alaska (Mark Begich), and Louisiana (Mary Landrieu). The other two races are for open seats. Bruce Braley is trying to win Iowa and Michelle Nunn is the candidate in Georgia. Again, polling seems to show the Republicans leading in all these races, though the Alaska surveys have been kind of all over the lot. Colorado and Alaska appear to be the best chances for the Dems to pull the mild upsets given the current numbers. Keep in mind that in Louisiana and Georgia it looks like the Republicans have the lead but not a majority, once you include the candidates of minor parties, and if these elections turn out that way both of these states would have run-offs between the top two finishers. It's assumed the Republicans would likely win any such runoffs in these states.
Democratic turnout will be the deciding factor. Right now a bettor would put the odds of the Republicans taking control of the Senate at about 3-1 in their favor. I'll do a post mortem after the voting.
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