Comprehensive Immigration Stalled?

I'm beginning to think the chances are growing that comprehensive immigration reform may run into an unresolvable roadblock in the House of Representatives.  Like the fiscal "grand bargain" and sensible gun regulation, the national need, public opinion and the long-term good of the Republican Party are likely to be sacrificed to right wing ideology and the short-term political imperatives of getting re-elected in strongly conservative districts. 

Everyone knows the long-term national prospects of the Republican Party are dismal unless they can find a way to reverse their recent terrible performance with Hispanic voters.  Mitt Romney won only 27% of the nation's largest and fastest -growing minority group in the 2012 election.  What's more, national surveys indicate strong support across the country for an immigration bill that includes a path to citizenship.  In last week's passage of comprehensive immigration, 14 of the 46 GOP senators broke with their leadership and voted for the bipartisan plan that increases border security in exchange for a lengthy process that would allow the undocumented to eventually become citizens.  Together with unanimous support from Senate Democrats, the final vote produced an impressive 68-32 majority for reform.

Even so, heavy obstacles remain in the House.  None is more important than the composition of the Republican districts their members represent.  The great majority of GOP congress men and women are in safe Republican districts.  70% of congressional districts represented by a Republican are less than 10% Hispanic.  So even though they know their party needs to make inroads in the Hispanic vote to win the macro political struggle, especially in the long run, in their own cases they have much more to fear in their particular districts from primary challengers from their right who will accuse them of voting for "amnesty" for "illegal aliens," two terms that are political dynamite among arch conservatives. 

The only way to pass comprehensive immigration in the House is a bill that would win over the Democrats and 15 or 20 of the most moderate Republicans.   But Speaker John Boehner, whose own position is precarious and has shown little ability to stand up to the tea party extremists in his own caucus, has said he will introduce no bill in the House that doesn't have majority Republican support.  That rules out any bill that doesn't support harshly punitive steps against undocumented workers, the type of bill that cannot pass the Senate.  In the final analysis, in order to get anything done, House Republicans would have to vote for the national interest and their party's long term interest over their own individual short-term political interests. 

That takes political courage.  It is is the kind of thing many House Democrats did in passing health reform in 2010, and many paid for it that November with the loss of their seats.  Up to now, it is the kind of perspective we have seen precious little of from the members of this Republican House.  Though it would be a welcome development, it may be too much to hope for.